US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO572

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000572 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLS ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  04/01/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, PHUM, ASEC, CE, Elections, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka braces for tight, tense election 
 
Refs:  Colombo 567, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Sri Lankans are getting ready to go to 
the polls on April 2 to vote for a new Parliament.  At 
this point, it still seems to be anyone's race to win: 
the Prime Minister's UNP appears to be making a late 
charge against the President's UPFA, but it is not clear 
which side has the overall edge heading into election 
day.  Smaller parties, such as the pro-LTTE TNA and the 
JHU (which is fielding an all-monk candidate slate), are 
also in the mix.  Given all of the variables, including 
the likelihood of election day and post-election 
violence, Sri Lankans are braced for a potentially 
turbulent period.  END SUMMARY. 
 
======================================== 
Sri Lanka on the eve of April 2 election 
======================================== 
 
2.  (U) Sri Lankans are getting ready to go to the polls 
on Friday, April 2, to vote for a new Parliament.  Over 
5,600 candidates are contesting for the 225 
parliamentary seats. (FYI.  The parliamentary election 
is being held on its own.  Presidential and local 
elections are held on a different schedule:  the next 
presidential election is due to be held in late 2005 or 
2006, for example.)  Turnout is expected to be average 
for Sri Lanka, with around 75 percent of the roughly 
12.9 million eligible voters going to the polls.  Over 
10,000 polling stations are being set up across the 
country, including some at sites set up in zones on the 
periphery of areas controlled by the Liberation Tigers 
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  (Thousands of Tamils living in 
LTTE-controlled areas are expected to vote at these 
sites).  Polls country-wide are open from 7:00 a.m. 
until 4:00 p.m. 
 
3.  (SBU) U.S. Mission teams informally observing the 
election are already fanning out to sites around the 
country in order to be in place by April 2.  The teams, 
which are made up of FSOs and FSNs, will be present in 
the following districts:  Anuradhapura, Colombo/Gampaha, 
Galle, Hambantota, Jaffna, Kandy, Matara, Nuwara Eliya, 
Ratnapura and Vavuniya.  USAID Office of Transition 
Initiatives (OTI) employees based in Trincomalee and 
Ampara will also be providing reports about the 
situation in the always volatile eastern region of the 
country.  In the meantime, large teams of observers from 
the European Union, the Commonwealth, and Japan will 
also be monitoring the election, along with monitors 
affiliated with the People's Alliance for Free and Fair 
Elections (PAFFREL) and the Center for Monitoring 
Election Violence (CMEV).  (The electoral activities of 
PAFFREL and CMEV, two local NGOs, are partially funded 
by USAID.) 
 
4.  (C) With respect to atmospherics, people are going 
about their business pretty much as usual throughout the 
country on April 1 (due to election regulations, all 
campaigning ceased on March 30).  There is little sense 
of excitement.  In general, Sri Lankans have never 
appeared to warm to this campaign, perhaps because they 
are on election overload (this is the country's fourth 
national election, parliamentary and presidential, in 
under five years).  That is not to say they are 
apathetic:  turnout, as mentioned above, is expected to 
roughly match that achieved during previous elections, 
and there is a fair degree of interest and concern about 
the election and its possibly divisive aftermath. 
 
5.  (SBU) In the meantime, while the overall amount of 
violence has been low this campaign compared to those in 
the immediate past (see Reftels), local monitors report 
that complaints have surged in the past week.  CMEV, for 
example, says that it has received over 1,500 reports of 
violence this campaign and that over 400 of those 
reports came in the last week alone.  (The total number 
of campaign-related killings stands at five.  All of 
them have been in the east, and four apparently involved 
the LTTE.)  As has been the case during past elections, 
a national curfew is expected to be put in place several 
hours after the conclusion of voting on April 2.  The 
curfew may be extended further into the weekend 
depending on the situation. 
 
======================== 
A Close Race is Forecast 
======================== 
 
6.  (C) At this point, it seems to be anyone's race to 
win.  Most observers agree that President Kumaratunga's 
United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) had a fast 
start, but may have faded a bit in the home stretch. 
(The UPFA consists of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, 
"SLFP," the radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, "JVP," 
and some smaller parties.)  Juxtaposed against this is 
the view (based on polling and anecdotal information) 
that Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's United National 
Party (UNP) may have begun to pick up some traction late 
in the race after a very slow start to its campaign. 
 
7.  (C) Smaller parties are also in the mix.  The pro- 
LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) had been expected to 
do well in the election, perhaps by winning over 20 
seats (up from 15 now).  The TNA's momentum may have 
been hurt somewhat by the recent split in the LTTE 
between northern and eastern elements.  (Note:  Indeed, 
there are reports that most of the TNA's candidates in 
the east are now supporting rebel commander Karuna, 
while those in the north remain loyal to the main LTTE 
organization.  The situation is quite tense:  on 
March 30, one of the TNA candidates in the east was shot 
and killed, probably by the LTTE.  In response, GSL 
security forces have reportedly stepped up their patrols 
in the east.  End Note.)  Another party that could play 
an important role in the post-election period is the 
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), which is running an all- 
Buddhist monk candidate slate (see Reftels).  This 
party, which is new, appears set to pick up several 
seats in Parliament, with some observers estimating that 
it may take nine seats or more.  Two other important 
parties are the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the 
tea estate Tamil Ceylon Worker's Congress (CWC).  Both 
of these parties are backing the UNP.  The SLMC has been 
engaged in a serious fight with Muslim parties that are 
backing the UPFA and it is uncertain how strong a 
showing it will make.  The CWC appears set to do well. 
 
8.  (C) Overall, as previewed in Reftels, it would 
appear quite difficult for either the UPFA or the UNP to 
win a majority of seats in Parliament (i.e., 113 seats 
or more in the 225-seat body); Sri Lanka's complex 
proportional representation system makes a landslide 
victory very difficult.  At this point, the two 
alternatives appear to be:  the UPFA wins the most seats 
and, by picking up support from other parties or cross- 
overs, is able to form the next government; or, the UNP, 
joining with the TNA, is able to form the next 
government. 
 
9.  (SBU) One factor that makes this election very 
difficult to predict is the high number of voters who 
remain undecided, according to various polls that have 
been done in the pre-election period.  (In some polls, 
about a quarter of the electorate is essentially 
undecided between the two parties -- see Reftels.)  It 
is not clear where these voters will end up (or if they 
will vote at all), but the cumulative impact of their 
votes will almost certainly prove decisive as to which 
parties are the players in the post-election timeframe. 
 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
10.  (C) Election day does not usually go smoothly in 
Sri Lanka.  In 2001, for example, at the orders of the 
President's office, the military effectively prevented 
thousands of Tamils living in LTTE-controlled areas from 
voting.  That particular problem is not expected this 
time around.  Violence will probably pick up on election 
day, however, and hiccups should be expected, including 
various snafus -- some minor, some possibly more serious 
-- at polling sites and counting centers.  Widespread 
fraud of the sort that could prove decisive in the 
election, however, has not generally been a problem in 
Sri Lanka in the past (though there are sure to be 
plenty of allegations). 
 
11.  (C) The tabulation of votes takes considerable time 
in Sri Lanka, but by mid-day April 3 there should be 
some sense as to the general shape of the overall 
result.  If it is a particularly close race, a clear 
picture could be delayed for some time.  There is also a 
tradition in Sri Lanka of voters defying expectations, 
which leads at times to surprising results.  Based on 
past experience, post-election violence involving 
winners attacking the losers could also be a problem. 
All in all, in light of these and other variables, Sri 
Lanka is getting ready for a bumpy ride in the next 
several days and weeks.  END COMMENT. 
 
12.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD