US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA317

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: SIMKO LOSES LEADERSHIP OF FREE FORUM 
 
1. (SBU) ON MARCH 26, THE FOUNDING CONGRESS OF FREE FORUM 
(FF, A BREAK-AWAY PARTY FROM PM DZURINDA'S SDKU) TURNED INTO 
DRAMA WHEN IVAN SIMKO FAILED TO WIN THE CHAIRMANSHIP IN HIS 
NEW PARTY.  INSTEAD, ZUZANA MARTINAKOVA WON BY A SINGLE VOTE 
(131 VS. SIMKO'S 130).  THE VISIBLY SHAKEN SIMKO RELUCTANTLY 
    ACCEPTED THE FIRST DEPUTY CHAIRMAN POSITION.  FOUR OTHER 
DEPUTY CHAIRS (JOZEF HURBAN, PETER BODY, BRANISLAV OPATERNY, 
AND EVA HLAVACOVA) WERE ALSO ELECTED.  ACCORDING TO SOME 
ANALYSTS, THE VOTE REFLECTED A DIVISION IN OPINION IN THE 
NEWLY ESTABLISHED PARTY:  MARTINAKOVA REPRESENTS MORE 
RADICAL OPPOSITION TO THE GOS AND SIMKO REPORTEDLY ADVOCATES 
A MORE MODERATE STAND. 
 
ALWAYS IN SECOND PLACE 
---------------------- 
2. (SBU) SIMKO'S FAILURE TO BE ELECTED CHAIRMAN CAME AS A 
SURPRISE.  SIMKO WAS NOT ABLE TO HIDE HIS DISAPPOINTMENT. 
HIS IMMEDIATE REACTION TO JOURNALISTS WAS, "IF I WERE A REAL 
MAN, I WOULD LEAVE."  HOWEVER, HIS SUPPORTERS CONVINCED HIM 
TO ACCEPT THE FIRST DEPUTY CHAIR.  SOME POLITICAL ANALYSTS 
POINTED OUT SIMKO'S TRACK RECORD: HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A 
SUCCESSFUL PARTY ORGANIZER, BUT SOMEONE ELSE SERVES AS THE 
PUBLIC FACE.  SIMKO HELPED TO ESTABLISH THE CHRISTIAN 
DEMOCRAT PARTY (KDH), LATER SDK, AND THEN WITH DZURINDA THE 
SDKU, BUT HE REMAINED NUMBER TWO IN ALL OF THEM.  IT 
HAPPENED AGAIN WITH FREE FORUM. 
 
3. (SBU) HEAD OF THE IVO THINK TANK GRIGORIJ MESEZNIKOV TOLD 
POLFSN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST CASE IN SLOVAK PARTY HISTORY 
WHEN A FOUNDER FAILED TO WIN CHAIRMANSHIP.  HE STATED THAT 
MARTINAKOVA IS A MORE ACCEPTABLE CANDIDATE FOR THE PUBLIC 
AND MAY GAIN MORE SUPPORT THAN THE OFTEN INDECISIVE AND 
INCOMPREHENSIBLE SIMKO. 
 
4. (SBU) COMMENT: THE DCM WAS TOLD BY A SENIOR ANO 
POLITICIAN THAT FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM MARTINAKOVA'S HUSBAND 
    MARIAN BEDNAR (FORMER MOD ADVISOR TO SIMKO AND ALLEGED 
MEMBER OF THE "SKUPINKA") HAS KEPT THE FF VIABLE.  THIS 
INFORMATION HAS NOT APPEARED PUBLICLY, BUT IF TRUE COULD 
HAVE HELPED HER CANDIDACY.  END COMMENT. 
 
MORE RADICAL OPPOSITION 
----------------------- 
5. (SBU) THE ATTEMPT TO RECALL FINANCE MINISTER IVAN MIKLOS 
EARLIER THIS MONTH PUBLICLY REVEALED THE DIVIDE IN THE FF. 
WHILE SIMKO REFUSED TO SIDE WITH THE OPPOSITION, MARTINAKOVA 
ADVOCATED MIKLOS'S RECALL AS WELL-DESERVED.  IN THE END, FF 
MP'S ABSTAINED FROM THE VOTE.  PREVIOUSLY, THERE WERE HINTS 
OF DISAGREEMENT WHEN SIMKO CONDITIONED ENTERING THE 
GOVERNING COALITION ON DZURINDA'S RESIGNATION.  SMK 
INTERLOCUTORS SPECULATED AT THE TIME THAT SIMKO WAS 
FOLLOWING ADVICE FROM OTHERS IN HIS NEW PARTY, BECAUSE HE 
HAD NOT BEEN SO RADICAL IN PRIVATE DISCUSSIONS. 
 
6. (SBU) REFLECTING THE IDEOLOGICAL SPLIT, AND THE CLAIM 
THAT FF IS MORE DEMOCRATIC THAN THE SDKU, PARTY MEMBERS 
INSISTED THAT BOTH SIMKO AND MARTINAKOVA RUN FOR 
CHAIRMANSHIP.  VIRTUALLY NO ONE EXPECTED THAT MARTINAKOVA 
WOULD WIN SINCE SHE WAS SIMKO'S PROTEGE.  HE BROUGHT HER 
INTO POLITICS AS THE "FEMALE FACE" OF SDKU.  SHE HAS MOVED 
FAR FROM THAT ROLE.  SHORTLY AFTER HER ELECTION, MARTINAKOVA 
SAID THAT DZURINDA'S GOVERNMENT CAN NO LONGER RELY ON FF 
SUPPORT.  SHOULD THERE BE ANOTHER RECALL VOTE ON MIKLOS, THE 
FF WOULD BACK IT, SHE ADDED. 
 
BIO NOTES ON MARTINAKOVA 
------------------------ 
    7. (SBU) MARTINAKOVA WAS BORN MAY 5, 1961 IN PUCHOV.  SHE 
STUDIED FRENCH AND SLOVAK LANGUAGES AT COMMENIUS UNIVERSITY 
FACULTY OF PHILOSPHY IN BRATISLAVA.  BEFORE ENTERING 
POLITICS, SHE WAS A JOURNALIST WITH SLOVAK RADIO, RADIO FREE 
EUROPE, AND THE BBC.  SHE HAS BEEN CHAIRWOMAN OF THE 
"DEMOCRACY FOUNDATION" SINCE 2000, AND A MEMBER OF 
PARLIAMENT SINCE 2002.  HER CV STATES SHE IS FLUENT IN 
ENGLISH AND FRENCH, ALTHOUGH REPORTEDLY SHE FEELS 
UNCOMFORTABLE IN ENGLISH FROM LACK OF USE.  SHE IS MARRIED 
TO MARIAN BEDNAR AND THEY HAVE THREE CHILDREN. 
COMMENT 
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8. (SBU) IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT EFFECT MARTINAKOVA'S 
FIRMER STANCE AGAINST DZURINDA WILL HAVE ON THE COALITION'S 
ABILITY TO GOVERN.  FF WILL NOT ROCK THE BOAT BEFORE MAY 1 
EU ACCESSION.  IN THE PAST, MARTINAKOVA HAS MADE STRONG 
STATEMENTS AND THEN BACKED DOWN.  WHETHER SHE CAN MAKE FF 
ENOUGH OF A PLAYER TO REMAIN ON THE POLITICAL SCENE BEYOND 
THE NEXT ELECTIONS WILL BE HER BIGGEST CHALLENGE. 
 
WEISER 
 
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