US embassy cable - 04HARARE553

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000553 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: VIOLENT RULING PARTY VICTORY SETS TONE FOR 
UPCOMING ELECTIONS 
 
REF: HARARE 540 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: In a demoralizing blow to the opposition, 
ZANU-PF took an MDC stronghold in the March 27 - 28 
by-election in the urban high-density constituency of 
Zengeza.  The government press reported that Minister Elliott 
Manyika, rumored to be involved in the shooting of an MDC 
youth (Ref), was in Bindura during the incident.  The 
successful use of violence and manipulation in the Zengeza 
election will embolden the ruling party to use similar 
strategies in upcoming elections.  Can the MDC compete?  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
ZANU-PF Wins Zengeza 
-------------------- 
 
2. (U) The results of the March 27 - 28 by-election in 
Zengeza (a high-density suburb of Harare) were announced late 
on March 29.  ZANU-PF candidate Christopher Chigumba polled 
8,442 votes to defeat the MDC candidate James Makore, who 
polled 6,706 votes.  Two other candidates from minor 
political parties each polled less than 100 votes. 
 
3. (C) The government will hold another by-election in the 
rural Matabeleland North district of Lupane on May 15 - 16 to 
fill a seat vacated by the February 3 death of MDC MP David 
Mpala.  Emboffs will observe the Lupane by-election with 
other diplomats, as they did in Zengeza (Ref). 
 
Manyika Establishes Alibi 
------------------------- 
 
4. (U) The Government-controlled Herald reported on March 30 
that MDC MP Ben Tumbare-Mutasa was arrested in Zengeza on 
March 29 for allegedly firing shots at ZANU-PF supporters. 
MDC officials said Mutasa fired warning shots into the air in 
self-defense.  No one was injured in the March 29 incident. 
 
5. (U) The article devoted considerable space to defending 
ZANU-PF Political Commissar and Minister Without Portfolio 
Elliott Manyika against rumors "circulating around the world 
and in the country" that he or his bodyguard was involved in 
the March 28 shooting death of an MDC youth (Ref).  According 
to the article Manyika was at his Bindura (Mashonaland 
Central) farm at the time -- the Electoral Supervisory 
Commission Chairman, police officers in Zengeza, officers 
manning a roadblock in Mazowe (between Harare and Bindura), 
and employees of a Mazowe hotel and Manyika's farm all 
confirmed this alibi.  The article went on to say that those 
involved in political skirmishes usually did not know each 
other and so clashes could happen within parties, not just 
between them. 
 
6. (C) Harare-based Swedish, Australian and British diplomats 
who arrived on the scene of the shooting about two hours 
after the event occurred reported that many on the scene 
fingered Manyika as the shooter.  MDC Secretary-General 
Welshman Ncube told a local British diplomat that there were 
legitimate questions about the accuracy of the eyewitness 
reports, however, and the party was not prepared to accuse 
Manyika yet.  Party statements denouncing the election and 
associated violence have not mentioned Manyika. 
 
The Gathering Gloom 
------------------- 
 
7. (C) The Director of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network 
(ZESN) Dr. Reginald Matchaba-Hove told emboff on March 29 
that the Zengeza election was the most outrageous election 
fraud ever perpetrated on the people of Zimbabwe. 
 
8. (U) According to the March 30 Herald, in response to the 
announced results Chigumba in a speech said Zimbabweans even 
in urban areas now know that the British-sponsored opposition 
MDC has nothing to offer them.  Harare Province Governor 
Witness Mangwende said, "this is the beginning of the end for 
the MDC".  The article reported that in response to these 
speeches some ZANU-PF supporters shouted that MDC supporters 
should be deported from Zimbabwe. 
 
9. (U) In the March 30 Herald, columnist Donald Charumbira 
accused the MDC of being terrorists and asserted that "the 
best MDC is a dead MDC", and "the MDC has no basis to remain 
in existence."  The column highlighted the notion that the 
interests of ZANU-PF were to empower the masses and build the 
nation whereas the inclination of the MDC was to engineer 
chaos and usurp power; therefore there was no basis for talks 
between the two.  Charumbira recommended that the MDC 
dissolve itself or join ZANU-PF. 
Comment: 
-------- 
10. (C) ZANU-PF's success in violently taking a solid MDC 
urban stronghold may embolden ZANU-PF to use the Zengeza 
blueprint of intimidation and manipulation in upcoming 
elections.  Indeed, Zengeza was consistent with comprehensive 
bullying tactics employed by the ruling party in elections 
throughout its history.  The brazenness of its abuses on this 
occasion and the party's apparently heightened disdain of 
diplomatic observers underscores that domestic and 
international perceptions of election legitimacy do not 
appear to be a serious concern for ZANU-PF.  Ruling party 
officials' unapologetic statements and explicit unwillingness 
to compromise on electoral issues even superficially, and the 
brazenness of abuses, suggest that the ruling party will not 
be satisfied to emasculate the MDC in next March's 
parliamentary elections.  Instead it may seek to obliterate 
the opposition entirely. 
 
11. (C) (continued) For the MDC, the demoralizing loss will 
likely lead to further despair and frustration within the 
already dispirited party.  Growing rage and hopelessness born 
of the Zengeza experience and rigid structural electoral 
imbalances could fuel so-called "adventurist" elements that 
MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai and other officials have 
cautioned about in recent weeks.  MDC leaders have confided 
to emboffs that they already spend significant time and 
energy trying to quell such inclinations.  Absent an 
unexpected change in the ruling party calculus, the stage 
appears to be set for more violence in the run-up to May's 
Lupane by-election and next March's national parliamentary 
elections. 
SULLIVAN