US embassy cable - 04MADRID1072

UNCLAS MADRID 001072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SP, PSOE - Socialist Party, Spanish Election March 2004 
SUBJECT: NEW SOCIALIST MAJORITY APPEARS STABLE 
 
REF: MADRID 900 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  The margin of the Socialist (PSOE) victory 
on March 14 should allow them to take power without any 
formal coalition agreements with smaller parties.  While the 
PSOE's 164 seats fall 12 short of an absolute majority, it 
should allow them to govern stably, especially given the fact 
that the Popular Party (PP) has no realistic alternative 
coalition to challenge the PSOE.  The Socialists have stated 
that they will form coalitions as needed on an issue-by-issue 
basis, freeing them from being dependent on leftist or 
nationalist coalition partners.  While the Spanish system has 
no set date for the investiture of the new government, 
expectations are that the process will move quickly and that 
the Zapatero administration will be installed by mid to late 
April.  End Summary. 
 
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Stable PSOE Majority 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Though not the 176 votes necessary for an absolute 
majority in Congress, the PSOE majority is large enough to 
govern comfortably by historic standards.  Both major parties 
won with less than absolute majorities in the 1990's (the 
PSOE in 1993 with 159 seats and the PP in 1996 with 156 
seats), and were able to maintain stable governments.  The 
164 seats that the PSOE received on March 14 are sufficient 
to counter the most likely alternative combination of votes 
(the PP's 148 seats with the CiU's (moderate Catalan 
nationalists) 10 seats and the Canaries Coalition's 3, for a 
total of 161 votes), even without the support of the other 
parties.  Given that legislation can be passed by a simple 
majority, the PSOE position in Congress thus appears secure. 
The PSOE can count on the 13 votes of the other leftist 
parties (ERC (leftist Catalan nationalists) with eight, IU 
(Communists) with five) on most issues to increase the 
Socialist's margin.  The inability of the PP in opposition to 
attract potential coalition partners permits the PSOE to 
enter into governance with no formal coalition agreements, 
allowing the Socialists to avoid having to make deals on 
ministerial positions or controversial issues that could 
potentially alienate moderate voters. 
 
3. (SBU) On issues such as the devolution of powers to the 
regions, where the Basque and Catalan nationalist parties may 
differ from the Socialists, the PP has already pledged its 
support to maintain the territorial integrity of Spain, and 
would agree with Socialist positions that support this 
principle. 
 
4. (SBU) In the other legislative chamber, the PP lost 24 
seats in the Senate on March 14 (from 127 to 103).  However, 
they remain only two seats short of an absolute majority of 
105 seats.  With the support of the 3 seats of the Canaries 
Coalition (CC), the PP should be able to control the Senate. 
However, given the weak powers of the Senate, the most the PP 
can hope for is to delay and amend legislation, not kill it, 
as the Senate can be overridden by the Congress of Deputies. 
 
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Investiture Schedule 
----------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The first step in the formation of the Zapatero 
government occurs on April 2 with the choosing of the 
President of the Congress (see reftel).  That position will 
almost certainly go to the PSOE's former foreign policy 
spokesman in Congress, Manuel Marin, who is PSOE leader Jose 
Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's choice for the job.  While the 
process for the election of Zapatero as President of the 
Government could take until the beginning of May, it is 
widely expected that the process will go rapidly.  MFA 
contacts have predicted that the Zapatero government should 
be in power by April 14-19.  Some smaller parties have 
already indicated their support for Zapatero's investiture, 
without any coalition agreement, which would allow the PSOE 
leader to be elected President of the Government on the first 
round of voting in the Congress of Deputies with the support 
of an absolute majority.  Even if he does not receive an 
absolute majority on the first round, Zapatero can become 
President of the Government on a second round of votes in 
Congress by a simple majority. 
ARGYROS