US embassy cable - 04KUWAIT1041

S E C R E T KUWAIT 001041 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, INR/B, INR/NESA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6 
TAGS: PINR, PREL, PGOV, KU 
SUBJECT: (S/NF) SHAYKH NAWAF AL-AHMED:  A NON-ENTITY TO 
WATCH 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 349 (NOTAL) 
     B. 03 KUWAIT 5045 
 
Classified By: CDA FRANK URBANCIC; REASON:  1.6X6 
 
1.  (S/NF) Ref A relayed a report from a well-connected 
Kuwaiti source that Shaykh Nawaf al-Ahmed al-Jaber al-Sabah, 
First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, has the 
inside track to be a future Amir.  The Bosnian ambassador 
(protect), a Muslim who speaks fluent Arabic and enjoys warm 
relations with senior members of the ruling family, flatly 
told us March 29, quite unbidden, that Shaykh Nawaf "will be 
the next Amir" after the current Amir, Crown Prince and Prime 
Minister depart the scene.  While this cannot be considered 
confirmation, it warrants attention. 
 
2.  (S/NF) We stand by ref B assertion that Shaykh Nawaf, 
half-brother to both the Amir and the Prime Minister, is 
"neither highly educated nor particularly sophisticated, and 
is not seen as a strong figure.  Loyalty and bloodline appear 
to be his selling points:  he presents no threat to Shaykh 
Sabah" the Prime Minister and de-facto ruler.  Clearly, 
however, it does not follow that Shaykh Nawaf "is not 
generally seen as a prospective Amir."  Indeed, lack of 
ambition, along with loyalty and bloodline, may make him 
attractive to the Prime Minister as a potential designated 
successor. 
 
3.  (S/NF) It is hard not to notice that the Jaber branch of 
the ruling al-Sabah family is tightening its grip on the 
reins of power:  besides bringing Shaykh Nawaf back into the 
Cabinet, another half-brother, Shaykh Mishaal al-Ahmed 
al-Jaber al-Sabah, has been named Deputy Chairman of the 
National Guard (the job Shaykh Nawaf held until July).  A 
nephew, Shaykh Ahmed al-Fahd al-Jaber al-Sabah, is Minister 
of Energy.  It is reasonable to suppose that Shaykh Sabah, 
who wields real power as Prime Minister, might be comfortable 
with the notion of an Amir above politics and an empowered 
(and competent) Prime Minister running the country.  That 
would be consistent with the scenario laid out in ref A, in 
which Shaykh Sabah would become Amir, Shaykh Nawaf Crown 
Prince, and Foreign Minister Shaykh Dr. Mohammed Sabah 
al-Salem al-Sabah, who holds a PhD in economics from Harvard, 
would become Prime Minister.  That arrangement would give the 
Salem branch of the ruling family a high-level position (the 
last two Amirs, and the current ailing Crown Prince, all come 
from this branch.  Since 1915, all the rulers of Kuwait have 
come from either the Jaber or Salem branch.) 
 
4.  (C) Shaykh Nawaf is about 67 years old but looks younger 
and appears to be in robust health. 
URBANCIC