US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1083

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: THE OPPOSITION PRESENTS CANDIDATES FOR REGIONAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 00949 
     B. CARACAS 1054 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4( 
b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Opposition political parties have registered their 
candidates for the August 1 gubernatorial and mayoral 
elections (ref b) despite criticism from opposition NGOs that 
see the elections as a distraction from the recall referendum 
against President Hugo Chavez.  Opposition parties largely 
portray their participation in the elections as a plebiscite 
against Chavez, asserting that defeat of the pro-Chavez 
candidate will be their priority.  The opposition reached 
agreement on 10 of 23 gubernatorial candidates, and 
opposition representatives expect front-runners, behind which 
opposition forces will coalesce, will emerge in most races 
once the campaigns begin.  A win for the opposition in these 
races would set the stage for the 2005 National Assembly 
elections, and, of course, for the 2006 presidential 
elections.  For the opposition, the key questions are can 
they winnow out competing opposition candidates to truly 
contest Chavez's candidates, and will the CNE play fair.  End 
Summary. 
 
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Referendum As Campaign Issue 
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2. (C) The candidate registration process for the August 1 
gubernatorial and mayoral elections strained opposition 
unity.  NGOs within the Coordinadora Democratica (CD), most 
notably Gente de Petroleo, disagreed with the parties' 
decision to present candidates, according to CD 
representative Daniel Thiman.  The NGOs argued that the 
elections would distract the opposition from the recall 
referendum against President Hugo Chavez.  Parties countered 
that the opposition could not risk surrendering the field to 
Chavistas in state and local governments, which are valuable 
assets to any political or electoral activities.  The parties 
registered their candidates despite serious reservations 
about the ability or good faith of the National Electoral 
Council (CNE) to administer the elections in light of the 
CNE's handling of the recall referendum. 
 
3. (C) Accion Democratica political secretary Luis Emilio 
Rondon told poloff March 24 that opposition parties were 
given no choice by the GOV but to move forward on the 
regional elections.  He said the opposition will continue to 
push for the referendum, noting that a recalled Chavez would 
damage the chances of pro-Chavez candidates.  Thiman told 
poloff March 25 the opposition would ramp up its referendum 
efforts shortly, though he did not have details on how the 
opposition would do this.  CD Spokesperson Pompeyo Marquez 
told reporters "the referendum is to revoke Chavez and the 
regional elections are to defeat Chavismo." 
 
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All Politics Is Loyalty 
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4. (C) Rondon asserted that the deciding factor in the 
regional elections would not be good governance or 
competency, but rather by devotion or opposition to Chavez. 
If opposition groups are able to make the elections about 
Chavez's administration, Rondon reasoned, it could be a 
powerful plebiscite against his rule.  He predicted the 
opposition could see a net gain in the number of governors 
and mayors.  Pro-Chavez Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy 
Ibrain Velazquez agreed the GOV could lose the regional 
elections in light of growing opposition strength in the 
states. 
 
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Electoral Darwinism 
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5. (C) Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary General Leopoldo 
Puchi told poloff March 26 the opposition had agreed on 
common candidates in ten states.  Puchi said even in states 
where the CD had negotiated common candidates, additional 
candidates registered to run.  Union President Francisco 
Arias, for example, registered for the governorship of Zulia 
state, where the opposition has backed sitting Governor 
Manuel Rosales.  Surprisingly, Union's board of directors 
withheld support from their party president (and founder) in 
the name of unity.  Gossip columns are replete with 
intimations that Arias is running at the behest of Chavez in 
order to divide the opposition vote.  Thiman said the CD 
expects the competition between opposition candidates will be 
short-lived as the campaigns gear up.  Venezuelan political 
culture does not favor underdogs, he said, and voters will 
rally behind the opposition front-runners against the 
pro-Chavez candidate. 
 
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Key Races:  Metropolitan Caracas A Must Win 
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6. (C) One of the most important races for the opposition is 
the metropolitan Caracas mayoralty, currently held by former 
Chavez ally Alfredo Pena.  Rondon noted the importance of 
winning the Metropolitan Mayoralty as it controls the 
Metropolitan Police and grants permits for opposition 
marches.  Pena has the CD's support for a second term, though 
AD's Claudio Fermin is also running.  With the MVR candidate, 
National Assembly Deputy Juan Barreto, reportedly polling 30 
percent (he says 43 percent), having two opposition 
candidates weakens the opposition's chances. 
 
7. (C) Rondon calculated that a victory for the opposition 
would be measured in a net gain of governorships.  He 
highlighted Miranda State, where Governor Enrique Mendoza 
will face former Minister of Infrastructure Diosdado Cabello 
(who stepped down March 23 to run for office as dictated by 
election laws).  Carabobo is also key, where Henrique Salas 
Feo is taking on former National Guard Gen. Luis Felipe 
Acosta Carles.  Rondon was pessimistic over the opposition's 
chances in Aragua state east of Caracas, where moderate 
Chavista Didalco Bolivar enjoys substantial popularity. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) The opposition political parties are behaving like 
political parties in their enthusiasm over the regional 
elections.  For them, the referendum and the regional 
elections are not mutually exclusive goals.  In fact, the 
referendum -- or lack of one -- will be a prime issue.  The 
major concern, of course, is whether the CNE, that for the 
opposition has shown it cannot be trusted, will be able to 
conduct a free and fair contest. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01083 - CONFIDENTIAL