US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO1989

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 001989 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #33:  BALAGUER'S GHOST 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Following is no. 33 in our series on the Dominican 
elections: 
 
Balaguer,s Ghost 
 
Avaunt! And quit my sight! Let the earth hide thee! 
Thy bones are marrowless, thy blood is cold; 
Thou hast no speculation in those eyes 
Which thou dost glare with. 
                         - - Macbeth, Act 3, scene 4 
 
 
The message that Embassy Santo Domingo has been picking up 
most strongly about the May 16 elections is that of a 
pervasive but diffuse fear of the election process itself. 
For example: 
 
     Influential, sophisticated business executives have 
told the Ambassador apparently in all sincerity that if the 
ruling PRD wins this election, "there will be civil war." 
 
      Provincial PLD leaders speak with great anxiety about 
claims of Mejia,s faction distributing guns to party members 
so they can disrupt polling stations favorable to the PLD. 
 
     Last week a senior PRSC official in Barahona evoked 
repeatedly his worry that "phantom" polling centers would be 
created by the National Elections Board, "ten or more for 
each province, to give the PRD the margin to put the election 
into a second round." 
 
     We earlier reported the paranoid notions of supporters 
of the PLD,s single national senator, Tomas Perez, who 
asserted that the PRD-dominated Congress would seek any 
pretext to cancel or postpone elections and put an interim 
unelected pro-PRD government in place. 
 
     And on March 26 PRD President Vicente Sanchez Barnett 
formally complained to the Elections Board (JCE), seeking to 
block the PLD from setting up its own computer network in 
parallel with that of the JCE, on the pretext that the PLD,s 
plan to collect and announce provisional results ahead of the 
JCE would be a threat to public order: "Just imagine, 
honorable judges, if we were to do such a thing, driven by 
rashness and desperation, in a situation so delicate for the 
democratic health of the country." 
 
And yet - - 
 
The JCE will be using an improved version of election 
procedures that functioned successfully in 1996 and 2000; 
representatives of each party will be present at each voting 
station and will certify the tally sheets; the domestic NGO 
"Participacion Ciudadana" is well on the way to training and 
fielding observers for every polling station; the OAS 
election observers financed by the United States, Canada and 
- -  probably - - the European Union will be accredited to 
circulate freely to monitor the process; about 40,000 
military and police will be providing security, in accordance 
with specific training; and President Mejia has told the 
military leadership to allow the U.S. Defense Attache to 
observe "anything he wants."   The JCE has signed a contract 
for a U.S. firm to review a random 10 percent of the voter 
registration rolls so as to evaluate whether the 
long-uncorrected files show any systemic partisan bias.  The 
Ambassador and Embassy staff have consistently assured 
Dominicans of our serene confidence that the elections will 
be free, fair and transparent.  But the persistent question 
from our interlocutors has been, "But what if they are not? 
What will you do about it?" 
 
The Ghost 
 
Joaquin Balaguer died in 2002, a scant two years after he 
declined to enter a presidential second round against 
Hipolito Mejia,s 49% score, but he is still as vividly 
present as Banquo,s ghost in the ceremony of presidential 
election.  The visceral reaction against Mejia,s re-election 
bid was shaped in large part by the memories of Balaguer,s 
repeated manipulation of elections to ensure his own 
continuation, most recently only ten years ago.  The 1994 
elections were so flagrantly fraudulent that domestic and 
international pressure finally obliged Balaguer into 
negotiations that cut his four-year term to two and produced 
a constitutional ban on re-election.  Dominican intellectuals 
- - and quite a few Dominican politicians - - now argue that 
after 30 years of Trujillo and a total of 22 years of 
Balaguer, re-election is a poisoned concept for this country. 
 In a country rife with corruption and pursuit of spoils, 
they argue, only an absolute prohibition of re-election gives 
any hope of clearing out the most recent set of rascals 
abusing the people. 
 
Hipolito Mejia,s railroading tactics have only reinforced 
these views.  He used his heavy PRD majority in Congress and 
(assert many) both arm-twisting and bribery to throw out the 
six-year-old Constitutional prohibition on re-election.  Of 
the 9 Electoral Board judges elected by Congress, all but two 
have links with the PRD.  Senate and House of Representatives 
have selected two new members for the six-person Judicial 
Counsel that selects Supreme Court justices, a none too 
subtle reminder that Mejia,s party is ready to try to shift 
the balance on the court, if necessary.  Mejia,s aggressive 
rhetoric and harsh disdain for his principal rival feed the 
fears that he will do almost literally anything in order to 
stay in power. 
 
In our view, Mejia believes he has a good shot at actually 
winning these elections if he can succeed in pushing them 
into a second round.  Part of this is ego and the arrogance 
of power; part of it is the calculation that the PRD can 
succeed with the poorer voters in convincing them that the 
PRD is better able to take care of them.  At the same time, 
the PRD has begun systematically tarring Fernandez with 
assertions of corrupt involvement in the Baninter frauds. 
 
Spreading out, multiplying forces 
 
This atmosphere and disposition of forces does much to 
explain Leonel Fernandez,s insistent requests in Washington, 
publicly and privately, for the United States and other 
international donors to increase resources for election 
observation.  The Ambassador,s public announcement on March 
19 of U.S. financial support for the OAS team has brought a 
perceptible lowering in the tensions over the electoral 
process; we suspect that comments we,ve heard since that 
date are now more rhetorical than real. 
 
Even so, memories of rotten elections remain very close to 
the surface.  Despite the recent campaign managers, 
agreement to program public events to avoid partisan 
confrontations, and despite the admonitions of the church and 
civic society to avoid name-calling, tensions are rising. 
Irregularities or unforeseen clashes could slip into local 
violence in the 50 days that remain before the vote. 
 
During that time Embassy officers are traveling repeatedly to 
provincial capitals in a systematic initiative to establish 
contacts with the major parties, the private sector, the 
provincial electoral board, the media, and the local chapter 
of the national civic NGO "Participacion Ciudadana."  Our 
message is one of civic participation, civic responsibility, 
and international observation - - reminding questioners that 
the Dominicans themselves will have to assure the 
transparency of their own electoral process.   In general, 
we,ve found that the Dominicans outside the capital are 
eager to meet us and to hear that message. 
 
But Balaguer,s ghost is still very much with them.  In fact, 
reporters from the "Diario Libre" newspaper confirmed that 
dead though he may be, the enigmatic blind old man is still 
registered to vote on May 16. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs. 
 
3. (U)  This report and others in our elections series are 
available on the SIPRNET at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along 
with extensive other current material. 
 
 
 
 
HERTELL