US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO1986

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 001986 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/PPC, AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #32: BATTLE OF THE POLLS 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 1518 (NOTAL) 
 
1. (SBU) This is no. 32 in our series on the Dominican 
presidential election: 
 
BATTLE OF THE POLLS 
 
Two polls published today, March 29, both show a much tighter 
presidential race, indicating that President Hipolito Mejia 
has picked up considerable support. Polls were done the same 
week in March (March 18-March 23), each with a sample 
universe of 1200 from across the country.  Serious 
discrepancies between the polls are a warning that samples 
can be cooked as well as estimated. 
 
A survey done by U.S. firm Hamilton Beattie & Staff for daily 
"Hoy" shows Leonel Fernandez (PLD) with 52 percent, with an 
estimated error of  /- 3 percent.  Mejia (PRD) is second with 
25 percent, with Estrella (PRSC) at 17 percent. Hamilton 
reports that in matches for a hypothetical second round 
Leonel Fernandez will win -- with 59 percent if confronting 
Mejia and 54 percent if confronting Estrella. 
 
A poll done by "Consulting Express West, Inc.",(CEW) 180 West 
Broadway Avenue, New York, puts Fernandez at 47 percent with 
an estimated error of  /- 3.2 percent, with Eduardo Estrella 
second at 23.7 percent and Mejia at 15 percent. Rejection 
rates are 72.1 percent for Mejia, 20.6 percent for Fernandez, 
and 3.5 percent for Estrella.  CEW results for hypothetical 
second round matches suggest that Mejia would lose 
disastrously but that Estrella could edge ahead of Fernandez 
47 percent to 45 percent. 
 
In either case Fernandez has slipped from the comfortable 63 
percent in a Gallup poll in February, much as we expected. 
and is now within sampling error of failing to win on the 
first round. 
 
Hoy's numbers 
 
The "Hoy" poll provides some evidence that Mejia and VP 
candidate Subervi have had some impact with whirlwind 
campaign events all over the country.  These have included 
presidential inaugurations of hundreds of public works 
projects, some rushed to completion for the campaign and 
others, already in operation, slightly refurbished to justify 
another ceremony.  There is now a patched-up unity of the PRD 
-- with only ousted party president Hatuey De Camps remaining 
adamantly opposed to Mejia's re-election bid. 
 
Many of the nominal PRD members, however, have yet to be 
convinced not to abscond to Leonel.  Voters' party sympathy 
expressed both polls tracked their candidate preferences. 
Leonel's PLD 50 percent, Hipolito's PRD 28 percent, and 
Estrella's PRSC 16 percent.  Hamilton-"Hoy" confirms that the 
 PRSC is definitely in decline, a trend evident already 
beforethe 2002 death of aged Dominican strongman Joaquin 
Balaguer.  The preference for the PRSC has declined from 25 
percent in 2000. 
 
Most of the poll respondents -- across gender and age groups, 
occupations, and regions -- view Fernandez favorably (64 
percent) and Mejia unfavorably (67 percent).  The only 
exception is farmers, where former agriculture minister (and 
farmer) Mejia eked out a 51 percent favorable rating.  PRD 
vice-presidential candidate Subervi also fared badly: 61 
percent of respondents didn't like him. 
 
Voters' confidence in electoral process, also included in the 
"Hoy" poll, appears to have ticked up slightly.  In January, 
a poll by another U.S. firm showed 64 percent of voters 
having "little or no confidence" in the Central Election 
Board (JCE) that is organizing the election and will 
adjudicate the outcome and 70 percent believing the JCE would 
be independent or neutral.  In the latest poll, 71 percent of 
respondents rated the JCE as "good" or "excellent" on its 
handling the electoral process -- but 58 percent still saw 
some likelihood of electoral fraud. 
 
Lies, damned lies and polls 
 
Part of the comfortable myth about the U.S. Embassy in the 
Dominican Republic is that we know everything that it is 
going on.  Many are convinced that we are doing our own 
electoral opinion polling.  We do not, in part because very 
often the owners of poll information are happy to share it 
with us before they go public with it.  Still, these poll 
reports serve as a reminder that the apparent precision of 
statistics covers a world of uncertainty.  How representative 
were those 1200-person samples?  Did events intervening in 
the course of that week change some minds? How reputable were 
the polling firms?  Were data massaged after delivery?  A 
casual conspiratorial interpretation might well be that 
Estrella supporters aimed at taking the wind out of the sails 
of both the PLD and the PRD by fielding a barely plausible 
version of the future that would put Estrella into the palace. 
 
The undeniable conclusion is that the campaigning is now 
underway in earnest.  Fernandez is still the man to beat; and 
his job is to stay credible, to stay on message, and to 
protect his lead. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell, Michael Meigs. 
 
3. (U) This report and others in this series can be read on 
the SIPRNET at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along 
with extensive other current material. 
HERTELL