US embassy cable - 04HARARE539

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000539 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. DELISI, L. AROIAN, M. RAYNOR 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2009 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: PRAYER DAY GOES SMOOTHLY; NCA MARCH PLANNED NEXT 
MONTH 
 
REF: HARARE 495 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Win Dayton under Section 1.5 b/d 
 
1.  (U) Public prayer events (reftel) addressing a host of 
political and economic issues were conducted relatively 
smoothly on March 27 in Harare and Bulawayo.  At Bulawayo's 
Catholic Cathedral, a host of clerics, including Archbishop 
Pius Ncube, a few South Africans, a Zambian, and a number of 
Zimbabweans spoke to a crowd of 3-400 (including poloff) 
about the need for national reconciliation.  Speakers 
generally projected a moderate tone, with South Africans 
emphasizing the solidarity of their congregations with 
suffering Zimbabweans.  A Zimbabwean urged all Zimbabwean 
congregations to set aside a time during the work week on a 
regular basis to pray for resolution of the national crisis. 
Ncube's intervention was the most provocative of the group; 
the speaker who introduced him quoted from the American 
Declaration of Independence on the need to throw off the 
shackles of tyranny and Ncube castigated as "liars" those who 
pretended Zimbabwe's situation was "normal."  The Harare 
gathering of about 500, which was dominated by evangelical 
church groups, was similarly measured in its tenor.  Speakers 
included one Zambian and one Botswanan, the latter of whom 
quoted from Martin Luther King on the imminence of 
long-awaited change. 
 
2.  (C) National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) President 
Lovemore Madhuku told poloff March 27 that the NCA was 
planning its next public march the weekend of April 17-18. 
He advised that a centralized single march that weekend would 
be followed up the following week with a host of dispersed 
marches in an effort to raise the profile of public ire and 
to challenge an increasingly complacent regime.  He 
acknowledged that intimidation, apathy and emigration were 
severely handicapping the organization's ability to turn 
people out.  Illustrating emigration's devastating effect on 
Zimbabwean civil society, he noted that about 80 percent of 
those "in the front row" of NCA marches in the run-up to the 
constitutional referendum of 2000 had left the country. 
Those remaining were demoralized, and recruiting new energy 
was a challenge.  He noted the chilling effect posed to mass 
action of new laws permitting a month's detention without 
bail.  He asserted, however, that GOZ detention of a large 
number of demonstrators for more than a couple of days would 
pose logistical and morale challenges for an unenthusiastic 
police force and a public relations problem for the 
government. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT: The prayer events represented the largest 
unobstructed gatherings of regime critics in recent memory. 
In February 2003, several clerics were arrested and some 
beaten when they demonstrated publicly against the GOZ.  GOZ 
indulgence of these events now may reflect a calculation that 
civil society will have difficulty developing meaningful 
momentum.  Indeed, the prayer events, which were planned for 
months, could have been better engineered.  The churches' 
extensive network and an advertisement in a weekly newspaper 
did not result in wide public knowledge of plans; in the week 
before they were held, other diplomats and even the mayor of 
Bulawayo -- certainly most of the public -- were unaware of 
their existence.  Should the churches (or any other 
organization) show capacity to sustain a perceptible level of 
publicly displayed criticism, we would expect the GOZ to act 
more forcibly against them.  It likely will show less 
restraint if the NCA proceeds with its planned marches next 
month. 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): Absorbed by election preparations 
and internal organizational issues, the opposition MDC has 
maintained a relatively low profile on the streets amidst 
these periodic low level public demonstrations by civil 
society.  The party leadership nonetheless continues to 
communicate and to coordinate with churches, the NCA, 
organized labor and other regime critics, all of whom 
coordinate loosely among themselves.  The looseness of these 
relationships allows the players to finesse differences among 
themselves.  In addition, the relative independence of each's 
anti-regime activities avoids putting all their eggs into one 
basket, reducing the risk to each and permitting each to wait 
for the approach of another to gain purchase with the public 
before all join in. 
SULLIVAN