US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN757

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000757 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KHIV, PREL, SOCI, EAID, ECON, AM 
SUBJECT:  SUNDAY SCUFFLE AT OPPOSITION RALLY:  EARLY 
START TO ARMENIA'S "HOT POLITICAL SPRING?" 
 
REF:  RFE/RL REPORT, 28 March 2004 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Heckling, a fistfight and the subsequent 
arrest of four opposition supporters overshadowed the 
start of a Justice Bloc-sponsored political rally in 
the northern city of Gyumri on March 28 (ref).  Police 
eventually restored order and the rally and later 
closed-door consultations between opposition and local 
leaders finished without further incident.  Last 
Sunday's events, the most violent since the opposition 
rallies during last year's Presidential campaign, have 
sparked speculation that opposition rallies scheduled 
for this April will reveal a contentious political 
atmosphere and could lead to more unrest.  Opposition 
leaders and some political analysts are pointing to the 
Gyumri incident as proof that forces loyal to President 
Robert Kocharian are "running scared" and will resort 
to shady tactics to discredit the opposition.  End 
Summary. 
 
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HECKLING, VIOLENCE AND ARRESTS KICK OFF RALLY 
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3. (U) An opposition rally in Armenia's second-largest 
city, Gyumri, got off to a tumultuous start March 28 
when pro-Government and pro-opposition demonstrators 
exchanged punches, launched eggs and hurled insults, 
ending in four arrests.  A group of 10-15 women 
(referred to in press reports as "known prostitutes" 
and rumored to have been enlisted for the event) joined 
the rally holding anti-opposition banners and clashed 
with opposition supporters shortly after the start of 
the event.  According to reports from Embassy sources, 
the violence began after hecklers threw eggs and set- 
off firecrackers during People's Party President and 
"Justice Bloc" leader Stepan Demirchian's opening 
address.  A group of unidentified men, two of whom were 
allegedly plainclothes police officers, approached 
Demirchian and engaged in a fistfight with his 
bodyguards and others.  Police arrested four opposition 
supporters (including the driver of Justice Bloc leader 
Albert Bazeyan) following the scuffle. 
 
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DEMIRCHIAN:  VIOLENCE A "CLEAR PROVOCATION" 
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4. (SBU) Despite conflicting reports, Demirchian and a 
handful of Justice Bloc representatives eventually did 
complete their rally and met with local supporters in 
closed-door consultations regarding future 
demonstrations in Yerevan scheduled for sometime in 
early April.  Demirchian referred to the violence as a 
"clear provocation" from the Kocharian.  Later that 
night, Demirchian made high-profile appeals to local 
authorities to release the four men arrested during the 
scuffle.  (Note:  Post has no information on the 
detainees' treatment during their imprisonment or 
updates regarding their release.  End note.) 
 
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POLICE:  "UNABLE TO GUARANTEE PROTESTORS' SAFETY" 
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5. (SBU) Organizers of the opposition rally claim that 
local police stated in a letter before March 28 that 
they were "unable to guarantee protestors' safety" in 
the event of a rally.  This rare police statement, 
coupled with early press reports that multiple 
plainclothes policemen may have taken part in the 
heckling, have given rise to speculation of GOAM 
involvement (local and/or national) in the anti- 
opposition events on Sunday.  In addition, sources tell 
the Embassy that a suspicious "violet Mercedes-Benz" 
was parked close to the rally from which GOAM 
sympathizers distributed eggs and encouraged their 
equities to "make it look like a real protest from both 
sides." 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (SBU) It remains unclear what, if any, role 
government authorities played in the March 28 
disturbances during the Gyumri opposition rally. 
Political analysts close to the Embassy speculate that 
the incident had its roots in local politics.  They 
tell us that local authorities may have staged the 
events as a symbol of political repentance in order to 
ingratiate themselves with the Kocharian 
administration.  The subsequent political fallout and 
press frenzy, however, suggest that future rallies will 
now serve as an important barometer of the opposition's 
support and the Kocharian administration's propensity 
for self-restraint.  Whether the incident was a part of 
local politics or a national power play, all eyes are 
now focused on future opposition rallies in Yerevan and 
what may be the "hot political spring" rumored to 
dominate Armenian politics in the coming months. 
 
WALKER