US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO557

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000557 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT, INR/NESA, SA/PD 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:           DECL:  03/29/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PTER, PHUM, PINR, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT:  Campaign Snapshot:  Campaigning set to end 
March 30; Conflicting poll results; Shooting incidents 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 290252Z Mar 04 
 
-      (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 290222Z Mar 04 
-      (C) Colombo 545, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) In this message, Mission reviews the following 
items involving Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary 
election campaign: 
 
-- Per the rules, campaigning set to end March 30, 48 
hours before election day. 
 
-- Conflicting poll results. 
 
-- In visit to southern districts, Mission team finds 
strong support for alliance between President's party 
and radical JVP. 
 
-- Shooting incidents spark concerns that the Tigers may 
be increasing their efforts to scare Tamil voters into 
supporting pro-LTTE party. 
 
========================== 
Campaigning set to wrap up 
========================== 
 
2.  (U) Per Sri Lanka's election rules, campaigning for 
the April 2 parliamentary election is set to end on 
March 30, 48 hours before election day.  All campaign 
activities (rallies, speeches, etc.) must be completed 
before midnight March 30.  March 30 is also the last day 
to place political ads in the print media.  For 
electronic media, all campaign advertisements or 
programs of a political nature must stop by midnight 
March 29. 
 
3.  (U) In line with these constraints, Sri Lanka's 
political parties are wrapping up their campaigns. 
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National 
Party (UNP) will hold its final rally in Colombo on the 
afternoon of March 30.  President Chandrika Bandaranaike 
Kumaratunga's United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) 
will also hold its final rally the same day in another 
part of Colombo.  Kumaratunga and Janatha Vimukthi 
Peramuna (JVP) leader Somawansa Amarasinghe are expected 
to speak at the UPFA rally.  Both the UNP and UPFA 
rallies are expected to be quite large. 
 
4.  (SBU) COMMENT:  The campaign has been relatively 
subdued since it began in early February.  In general, 
many if not most Sri Lankans did not want elections at 
this time (the April 2 election, which was called three 
year's early, is the fourth national election, 
presidential or parliamentary, since 1999).  While not 
apathetic, per se, Sri Lankans never did seem to get 
into the swing of the campaign.  That said, the pace of 
campaign activities has picked up in the past several 
days.  Although technically against regulations, more 
campaign-related posters and banners can be seen, for 
example.  In addition, more firecrackers have been going 
off and many vehicles equipped with megaphones have been 
blaring away on Colombo's streets.  END COMMENT. 
 
================= 
Poll results vary 
================= 
 
5.  (U) The following poll results seem to indicate that 
voter attitudes are scattered across the board as the 
parliamentary election nears: 
 
-- The latest poll conducted by the Center for Policy 
Alternatives (CPA), a local think-tank, indicates that 
the UNP may be making some progress with voters on 
economic-related issues, while maintaining its lead on 
peace process issues.  (USAID provides some of the 
funding for CPA's polling.)  The latest results show, 
for example, that 28 percent (up from 18 percent) of 
people feel the UNP would be the best party to reduce 
the cost of living, versus 38 percent (up from 35) of 
those polled who felt the UPFA would be better in this 
area.  Forty-four percent of people in the latest CPA 
poll also felt the UNP was best suited to handle the 
peace process, giving the UNP a large lead in this area 
compared to the UPFA.  The UNP's lead in this area 
continues the trend seen in earlier CPA polls. 
-- The latest poll conducted by the Org-MARG Smart 
company, a division of A.C. Nielsen, indicated that the 
UPFA had a lead of 7 percent in southern Sri Lanka.  In 
the meantime, the pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE) Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the UNP were 
racking up a large lead in the north and east.  Based on 
these results, Org-Marg believes the election will not 
be won outright by any party, but will be a three-way 
tussle among the UPFA, the UNP, and the TNA. 
 
-- Another poll, which appeared in the English-language 
DAILY NEWS on March 29, showed a strong lead for 
President Kumaratunga.  Fifty-seven percent of poll 
respondents, for example, rated Kumaratunga's leadership 
abilities higher than those of the Prime Minister, who 
garnered a relatively low 37 percent.  The poll, 
conducted by "Infoserve," a local firm, also claimed 
that 53 percent of those polled rated the UPFA as a 
"party capable of fulfilling people's aspirations," 
compared to 31 percent who sided with the UNP on this 
question.  (Infoserve is not known to Mission.  State- 
run media, including the DAILY NEWS, have been 
fabricating and wildly skewing poll data during this 
campaign -- see Reftels.) 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  Polling is a relatively new and 
inexact science in Sri Lanka.  With that caveat, the 
polls generally seem to be showing that the UPFA started 
out fast and probably had a large lead going into the 
final stretch of the campaign.  The UPFA's apparent lead 
forced the UNP to play catch up and the UNP probably has 
made some degree of progress in cutting into the UPFA's 
lead.  Going into the last several days of the campaign, 
however, it appears that either party could win 
depending on which one wins over the large number of 
undecided voters.  (Mission will be reviewing in Septel 
the implications for U.S. policy of the likely post- 
election scenarios.)  END COMMENT. 
 
===================================== 
Strong support for UPFA in Deep South 
===================================== 
 
7.  (C) During a March 27-28 trip by poloff and Pol FSN, 
the UPFA appeared to be doing quite well in Sri Lanka's 
Sinhalese Buddhist-dominated "deep south."  In the 
districts of Matara and Galle, for example, UPFA posters 
and other campaign paraphernalia were extremely visible, 
far eclipsing those put up by the UNP.  Mangala 
Samaweera, Matara District UPFA leader and a senior MP, 
expressed great optimism about the race, predicting that 
the UPFA would win Matara with ease.  He also asserted 
that country-wide the UPFA would capture "at least" 116 
seats (113 seats or more are needed to form a majority 
in Parliament).  Many interlocutors saw economic issues 
as key to the race.  Samaraweera declared that economic 
dividends from the UNP's peace process had failed to 
reach rank-and-file voters in the south and indeed had 
not been felt outside the "Colombo cocktail circuit." 
UNP MP for Galle District H. Nanayakkara allowed that 
the UPFA appeared stronger in Galle District compared to 
the past.  This was due to the perception among southern 
voters that the UNP had not significantly "bettered the 
quality of life at a grassroots level," he said. 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  The UPFA appears to be doing quite 
well with Sri Lanka's majority Sinhalese Buddhist 
community.  Given its strength in minority communities 
(Muslims, Tamils, Christians), the UNP does not have to 
win a majority among Sinhalese Buddhists.  It needs to 
keep the vote in the Sinhalese community relatively 
close, however, or it will lose to the UPFA.  Based on 
what poloff saw and heard during his trip to the deep 
south, the UPFA's lead in that region appears sizable, 
which could present problems for the UNP.  END COMMENT. 
 
=========================================== 
Shooting Incidents renew worries about LTTE 
=========================================== 
 
9.  (C) Three shooting incidents on March 27 have 
sparked concerns that the LTTE may be increasing its 
efforts to influence Tamil voters via coercion and fear 
ahead of the election.  Two of the shooting incidents 
took place in Colombo and the other near the eastern 
city of Batticaloa.  In one of the Colombo incidents, 
UNP candidate and former Hindu Affairs Minister T. 
Maheswaran was shot in the neck at a rally.  He is now 
reported to be in stable condition following surgery. 
In the other Colombo incident, a candidate of the anti- 
LTTE Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) was shot at 
while in a car, but was not hit.  In the third incident, 
Batticaloa Government Agent (GA) R. Monunagurusamy was 
shot in the head and neck.  He was rushed to a Colombo 
hospital and he is now reported to be in stable 
condition.  So far, police have not made any arrests 
connected to the incidents and no group has taken 
responsibility. 
 
10.  (C) COMMENT:  The shooting incidents were quite 
brazen.  Maheswaran, for example, a well-known former 
minister, was shot at a rally.  Meanwhile, the GA, the 
highest-level civilian official for the GSL in 
Batticaloa, was shot in broad daylight as he returned to 
his office from a meeting.  Although the perpetrators 
have not yet been caught, the incidents bear the 
hallmarks of many past Tamil Tiger attacks.  Some 
observers believe that the LTTE's possible motive in 
carrying out such attacks would be to frighten Tamil 
voters ahead of the April 2 election, scaring them into 
supporting the TNA.  If this is the case, more such 
attacks could be forthcoming.  END COMMENT. 
 
11.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD