US embassy cable - 01PRETORIA1173

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001173 
 
FOR AF AND S/S FROM AMBASSADOR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2011 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SF 
SUBJECT: THIN-SKINNED MBEKI WILL REQUIRE DEFT HANDLING 
 
REF: A. 99 PRETORIA 12315 
     B. 99 PRETORIA 12316 
     C. 00 PRETORIA 9150 
     D. 00 CAPE TOWN 2150 
     E. PRETORIA 425 
     F. PRETORIA 533 
     G. CAPE TOWN 179 
     H. PRETORIA 619 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR DELANO E. LEWIS. REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:   RECENT ACTIONS AND STATEMENTS BY PRESIDENT 
MBEKI HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS ABOUT HIS ABILITY TO ACCEPT 
CRITICISM AND MANAGE COLLEGIALLY.  THE CHALLENGE FOR U.S. 
OFFICIALS WILL BE TO ACCEPT THIS IMPORTANT, BUT 
HYPERSENSITIVE, AFRICAN FIGURE AS HE IS, AND BUILD A 
CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUE.  POST STRONGLY RECOMMENDS THAT HE BE 
INVITED TO WASHINGTON EARLY ON TO BEGIN BUILDING THAT 
DIALOGUE. END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (C) THE CONTROVERSIAL INVESTIGATION OF SOUTH AFRICA'S 
1999 $4 BILLION ARMS PURCHASE AGREEMENT HAS SO FAR REVEALED 
LITTLE ABOUT THE ARMS TRADE, BUT A GREAT DEAL ABOUT PRESIDENT 
MBEKI AND THE MINDSET OF HIS KEY ADVISORY TEAM.   AS DETAILED 
IN REFS A-G, PRESIDENT MBEKI AND OTHERS AROUND HIM HAVE 
VIGOROUSLY, SOMETIMES ANGRILY AND SHRILLY, RESISTED CALLS FOR 
AN INVESTIGATION OF THE TRANSACTION THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE 
SPECIAL INVESTIGATIVE UNIT OF JUSTICE WILLIAM HEATH, 
ESTABLISHED BY MBEKI'S BELOVED PREDECESSOR NELSON MANDELA. 
THEY ARGUE THAT SUITABLE AND COMPETENT INVESTIGATORY 
INSTITUTIONS WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT ALREADY EXIST, OBVIATING 
THE NEED FOR ANOTHER INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATOR. WE ARE 
INCLINED TO AGREE WITH THE SAG ON THE CORE QUESTION THAT THE 
SANDF NEEDED TO PURCHASE SOME NEW EQUIPMENT, AND THE PRICE 
THEY WILL PAY IS REASONABLE.  WE CAN ONLY OBSERVE FROM THE 
SIDELINES THE STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE EXECUTIVE, LEGISLATIVE AND 
JUDICIAL BRANCHES, AS WELL AS THE FOURTH ESTATE, ON THE ARMS 
DEAL INVESTIGATION AND HOPE THAT SOUTH AFRICA'S COMMITMENT TO 
RULE OF LAW IS ULTIMATELY VINDICATED.  BUT THE LARGER ISSUE 
REMAINS FOR US OF HOW TO JUDGE, AND BUILD A DIALOGUE WITH, 
THE MAN AT THE CENTER OF THIS DEBATE. 
 
3.  (C) THIS LATEST EPISODE IS ONE OF SEVERAL WORRISOME 
SIGNALS FROM MBEKI AND HIS CAMP THAT RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT 
HIS JUDGMENT.  MBEKI'S RELUCTANCE TO ACCEPT OVERWHELMING 
SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE ON HIV/AIDS HAS BEEN MUCH NOTED AND 
DISCUSSED IN INTERNATIONAL CIRCLES AND WITHIN SOUTH AFRICA. 
HIS FAILURE TO SPEAK OUT ON CLEAR HUMAN RIGHTS AND RULE OF 
LAW VIOLATIONS TAKING PLACE IN MUGABE'S ZIMBABWE HAS ALSO 
BROUGHT HIM MUCH CRITICISM AND HAVE CLEARLY HURT INVESTOR 
CONFIDENCE IN SOUTH AFRICA'S ECONOMY IN THE PROCESS.  MBEKI'S 
RELIANCE ON A CORE OF ADVISORS THAT LACK THE EXPERIENCE AND 
DIPLOMATIC SEASONING ALSO UNDERCUTS MBEKI'S IMAGE EARLY-ON OF 
THE COOLLY RATIONAL MANAGER. THE MINISTER IN THE OFFICE OF 
THE PRESIDENCY ESSOP PAHAD HAS LAUNCHED BLISTERING ATTACKS ON 
THE PRESS WHEN HIS BOSS IS CRITICIZED.  HIS LEGAL ADVISOR 
MOJANKU GUMBI, RUMORED TO BE MBEKI'S MISTRESS (OR ONE OF 
THEM), OFFERED HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE LEGAL ADVICE ON THE 
CONSTITUTIONALITY OF INCLUDING HEATH IN THE ARMS 
INVESTIGATION. HIS FORMER SPOKESPERSON, THE LATE PARKS 
MANKAHLANA HAD LOST ALMOST ALL CREDIBILITY WITH HIS KEY 
AUDIENCE, THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESS IN THE MONTHS BEFORE HE 
DIED OF A DISEASE THAT MOST WERE CONVINCED WAS AIDS, BUT HE 
WOULD NEVER ADMIT. MBEKI REMAINS UNBLINKINGLY LOYAL TO 
CABINET MINISTERS, SUCH AS THE OFTEN INSULTING AND 
THOUGHTLESS MINISTER OF SAFETY AND SECURITY STEVE TSHWETE, 
WHO OUTRAGED THE PORTUGUESE COMMUNITY HERE BY QUESTIONING 
THEIR PATRIOTISM WHEN THEY CRITICIZED MBEKI'S HANDLING OF 
CRIME ISSUES, OR THE TRUCULENT AND PETULANT FOREIGN MINISTER 
NKOSAZANA DLAMINI-ZUMA (REF H), OR HIS HEALTH MINISTER WHO 
CIRCULATED TO THE ENTIRE CABINET LARGE SECTIONS OF A BOOK BY 
AN TOTALLY DISCREDITED AIDS DENIER. 
 
4.  (C)  SOUTH AFRICA'S REPORTERS AND EDITORS HAVE BROUGHT 
THESE INADEQUACIES TO THE PUBLIC'S ATTENTION WITH UNRELENTING 
ZEAL.  EVEN PAPERS HISTORICALLY SYMPATHETIC TO MBEKI AND THE 
ANC, SUCH AS THE SOWETAN HAVE JOINED A CHORUS OF CRITICS 
QUESTIONING MBEKI'S LEADERSHIP.  SIPHO SEEPE, FOR EXAMPLE, A 
POLITICAL ANALYST SYMPATHETIC TO THE ANC, WRITING IN THE 
SOWETAN ASKED IF MBEKI IS FIT TO GOVERN.   IN RESPONSE, MBEKI 
AND HIS TEAM OF ADVISORS HAVE TAKEN EXACTLY THE WRONG TACK. 
THEY ACCUSE THE PRESS OF RACISM (ATTACKING THE GOVERNMENT 
BECAUSE IT IS PREDOMINANTLY BLACK), OR OF BEING A MOUTHPIECE 
OF OPPOSITION PARTIES, OR OF HAVING A PERSONAL VENDETTA 
AGAINST MBEKI.  MBEKI'S AND THE ANC'S SOLUTION TO THIS 
"PROBLEM" IS NOT TO ENGAGE THE MEDIA ON AN INTELLECTUAL BASIS 
BUT RATHER TO SET UP ITS OWN "NEWS" WEBSITE TO "INFORM" SOUTH 
AFRICA'S PEOPLE (PRESUMABLY THOSE WITH COMPUTERS) WHO HAVE 
BEEN "MISINFORMED" ON THE ISSUES. 
 
5.  (C) WHY MBEKI, WHOSE INTELLIGENCE IS WIDELY ACKNOWLEDGED 
AND WHO IS WELL RESPECTED PERSONALLY, SHOULD EXHIBIT A 
TENDENCY TOWARD SHRILLNESS AND DEFENSIVENESS IS HOTLY 
DEBATED.   SOME SPECULATE THAT MBEKI AND THE MAJORITY OF ANC 
LEADERS AND OFFICE HOLDERS ARE STILL HANDICAPPED BY THE 
EXPERIENCE OF THE STRUGGLE AGAINST APARTHEID.  THEN, ENEMIES 
WERE EVERYWHERE AND THE WORLD FIT VERY NEATLY INTO SHADES OF 
BLACK AND WHITE.  OTHERS SEE MBEKI AS AN INDIVIDUAL WHO MUST 
ALWAYS BE RIGHT.  WHEN THE FORCE OF MEDICAL AND PUBLIC 
OPINION ON THE CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN HIV AND AIDS GREW TOO 
GREAT, MBEKI ANNOUNCED THAT HE WAS "WITHDRAWING" FROM THE 
DEBATE RATHER THAN ADMIT THAT HE POSSIBLY HAD ERRED.    MBEKI 
HAS POSITED THE VIEW THAT NONE OF THE CRITICISMS HE HAS 
RECEIVED WORRIES HIM BECAUSE HE KNOWS THEY AREN'T TRUE, AS HE 
TOLD THE EDITOR OF DRUM MAGAZINE RECENTLY.   IN THAT SAME 
INTERVIEW, MBEKI SAID THE OPPOSITION WANTS SOMETHING BAD TO 
HAPPEN IN SOUTH AFRICA "SO THEY CAN THEN SAY 'LOOK HOW BAD 
THIS GOVERNMENT IS.'" 
 
6.  (C)  ULTIMATELY, NO ONE KNOWS WHY MBEKI SOMETIMES 
DISPLAYS THIS IRRATIONAL SIDE, OR WHEN IT WILL MANIFEST NEXT. 
CERTAINLY, HE IS MORE FREQUENTLY REASONABLE, INTELLIGENT, 
AND CAPABLE, AS HE DEMONSTRATED AGAIN IN THE FEBRUARY 9 STATE 
OF THE NATION ADDRESS. MBEKI IS AN AVID READER AND IS ACUTELY 
AWARE OF THE CRITICISMS BEING LEVIED AGAINST HIM.  HE MUST 
ALSO BE AWARE OF THE STREAM OF RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE MEDIA 
THAT HE SHOULD SURROUND HIMSELF WITH AN ADVISORY TEAM THAT IS 
INTELLIGENT, WELL VERSED IN CURRENT AFFAIRS, AND ABLE TO MAKE 
RATIONAL DECISIONS. 
 
7.  (C) USG OFFICIALS MEETING WITH MBEKI SHOULD BE PREPARED 
TO RECOGNIZE HIS DEFENSIVENESS AND HIGH SENSITIVITY TO 
CRITICISM. GIVEN HIS CURRENT GRIP ON THE REINS OF THE ANC, WE 
ANTICIPATE THAT HE WILL BE A PROMINENT FEATURE OF THE SOUTH 
AFRICAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE FOR SOME TIME TO COME. IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT HIS CONTROL OF THE ANC COULD WEAKEN OVER THE 
LONGER TERM, AS LACK OF DELIVERY ON SOCIAL ISSUES BEGINS TO 
JEOPARDIZE HIS AND HIS PARTY'S PREDOMINANCE.  HIS PERCEIVED 
FAILURE TO EFFECTIVELY ADDRESS THE HIV EPIDEMIC, IN 
PARTICULAR, COULD MAKE HIM VULNERABLE TO GRASSROOTS 
OPPOSITION, POSSIBLY FROM WOMEN'S GROUPS.THE NEXT NATIONAL 
ELECTIONS ARE NOT UNTIL 2004, HOWEVER, AND THE TWO-TERM LIMIT 
IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONSTITUTION COULD ALLOW HIM TO SERVE 
UNTIL 2009. 
 
8.  (C) DIALOGUE WITH THIS ESSENTIAL AFRICAN LEADER SHOULD BE 
COUCHED IN POSITIVE, SUPPORTIVE LANGUAGE, IN THE HOPE OF 
BUILDING A RELATIONSHIP THAT WILL ALLOW US TO CROSS SWORDS 
WITH HIM AT A LATER DATE IF WE HAVE TO. AMBASSADOR LEWIS HAS 
ALREADY BEGUN TO ESTABLISH A RELATIONSHIP WITH PRESIDENT 
MBEKI THAT ENCOURAGES MBEKI TO ADOPT A MORE MODERATE TONE 
WITH HIS ADVERSARIES AND A LESS CONTROVERSIAL STANCE ON 
CRITICAL ISSUES (SUCH AS HIV/AIDS) THAT AFFECT THE WELL-BEING 
OF SOUTH AFRICA. 
 
9.  (C) WE RECOMMEND INITIATING AN EARLY AND HIGH-LEVEL 
DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE ADMINISTRATION AND MBEKI.  HE HAS MADE 
IT KNOWN TO US THAT HE WOULD LIKE TO BE INVITED TO WASHINGTON 
BEFORE NELSON MANDELA, WHOSE GLOBAL STATURE HAS SOMETHING TO 
DO WITH MBEKI'S OCCASIONAL MANIFESTATIONS OF A FRAGILE EGO. 
WE SUPPORT HIS REQUEST AND HOPE WASHINGTON WILL BE ABLE TO 
ACCOMMODATE THIS BRILLIANT, PRICKLY LEADER OF AFRICA'S MOST 
IMPORTANT STATE. 
 
 
LEWIS