US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA299

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BRATISLAVA 000299 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: GASPAROVIC'S CHANCES 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Weiser for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  Presidential candidate Ivan Gasparovic may 
get a slight boost from the recent endorsement by top-polling 
political party Smer.  On the other hand, Slovaks are likely 
to vote for the person they like best, and party endorsement 
will most probably not mean much.  The 25-30 percent support 
in polls for Smer leader Robert Fico will probably translate 
into only a few percentage points of support for Gasparovic. 
Although polls have shown rising support for Gasparovic, and 
he has overtaken incumbent Rudolf Schuster, he is still in 
third place, which will leave him out of the runoff. 
Political observers in Slovakia remain certain that the April 
17 runoff will be FM Eduard Kukan versus HZDS leader Vladimir 
Meciar.  End summary. 
 
Smer Supports Gasparovic 
------------------------ 
 
2. (SBU) Smer chairman Robert Fico surprised many on March 15 
when he endorsed Ivan Gasparovic for president.  Smer 
consistently tops the polls with 25 to 30 percent voter 
preference.  However, support for Fico and Smer does not 
necessarily translate to support for Gasparovic, even among 
undecided voters. 
 
3. (C) Speculation abounds about Fico's motives.  Clearly an 
opposition party could not support coalition leader SDKU's 
candidate, Eduard Kukan.  Many Smer leaders have a visceral 
dislike of rival opposition party HZDS's chairman, Vladimir 
Meciar.  Initially it seemed certain that Smer would support 
populist incumbent Rudolf Schuster, especially after he 
scheduled the Smer-supported referendum on early 
Parliamentary elections on the same day as the presidential 
election.  The tactical reason for the switch may have been 
that Fico felt Schuster, with no political party of his own, 
had nothing to deliver in return (in future Parliamentary 
elections). 
 
Background on Gasparovic 
------------------------ 
 
4. (SBU) Gasparovic is the chairman of Movement for Democracy 
(HZD), which split from HZDS in July 2002 after Meciar did 
not include Gasparovic on the HZDS candidate list for that 
year's Parliamentary elections.  HZD did not reach the 
five-percent threshold to have members in Parliament.  In a 
recent discussion with poloffs, Gasparovic acknowledged that 
his chances for making it to the second round of the 
presidential election were slim.  Gasparovic expects his 
candidacy to bring more interested voters to his party, 
re-energizing it for the next Parliamentary election. 
 
5. (SBU) Besides Smer, Gasparovic supporters include leaders 
of the Jan Slota strand of the Slovak National Party, HZDS 
breakaway party People's Union (LU), and Slovak National 
Union (SNJ).  Factors that may contribute to Gasparovic's 
appeal include his once high position in HZDS and Parliament. 
 He also represents a less-arrogant alternative to Meciar for 
those inclined toward nationalist parties and HZDS. 
Gasparovic aims to be a clean slate, a "man without 
characteristics" attracting various disaffected voters. 
Apart from a message espousing social rights and patriotism, 
he doesn't have a message.  His web page is 
www.gasparovic.sk; it's more or less empty, with some photos 
that present him as a "nice person." 
 
Not a Saint 
----------- 
 
6. (C) There is more to Gasparovic.  As one of Meciar's 
staunchest supporters for a decade, he is sometimes referred 
to as "Meciar Lite."  His break with HZDS was over 
personality conflicts with Meciar, not policy or principles. 
Throughout his tenure as chairman of Parliament, Gasparovic 
made sure Meciar's initiatives passed by any means necessary 
-- relegating opposition politicians to the environment and 
human rights committees.  He presided over dividing the 
spoils (government offices and properties) among HZDS and its 
allies.  It is unclear what Gasparovic gained from the 
privatization process.  Gasparovic staunchly defended Meciar 
during the drama when President Michal Kovac's son was 
kidnapped. 
 
Comment: A Small Boost 
---------------------- 
 
7. (C) Comment. Embassy contacts suggest the Smer endorsement 
might add a maximum of two to three percent to Gasparovic's 
election results.  With consistent ratings in the mid-teens 
compared to Kukan's and Meciar's low-to-mid-20-percent 
results, this would not be enough to get Gasparovic to the 
second round.  The best Gasparovic can hope for is to 
strengthen his HZD party, possibly at the cost of Meciar's 
HZDS, especially if Meciar loses the presidential election. 
 
Should Meciar win the Presidency (a doubtful outcome), 
Gasparovic told us he hopes to re-enter and reform HZDS, 
taking leadership away from Meciar.  He believes Meciar would 
be too preoccupied with the presidency and protecting his 
family and wealth to control HZDS any longer.  End comment. 
 
Biographic Basics 
----------------- 
 
8. (U) Gasparovic was born in Poltar, Slovakia, on March 27, 
1941.  He is married with two children.  Gasparovic has a law 
degree from Comenius University in Bratislava and worked as a 
Bratislava prosecutor before teaching at Comenius.  He was 
briefly chief prosecutor of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic 
in 1990 before President Havel recalled him for inactivity on 
former Communists' crimes.  In 1992, Gasparovic became a 
member of Parliament for HZDS, and was chairman of Parliament 
from then until 1998, though he remained an MP until 2002. 
WEISER 
 
 
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