US embassy cable - 04ANKARA1835

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001835 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKISH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: AKP POISED FOR 
VICTORY IN ANATOLIA'S HEARTLAND 
 
 
(U) Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons: E.O. 
12958 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. Summary:  Hampered by unorganized, uninspiring candidates, 
AKP's chances in the Anatolian provinces of Konya, Aksaray, 
and Sivas are based more on PM Erdogan's national popularity 
than any local candidate or particular platform.  Except in 
rare races where opposition is organized and effective, AKP 
is likely to prevail despite a pronounced inability to rally 
around anything but their party leader.  End summary. 
 
 
2. (C) Poloff traveled to Konya, Aksaray, and Sivas provinces 
to discuss with a variety of political and professional 
groups Anatolian perspectives on the March 28 municipal 
elections.  AKP's "great wind of change" is sweeping up many 
voters despite consistent themes of uninspiring candidates, 
overconfidence in Erdogan,s brand name, and disconnects with 
local constituencies.  The absence of women on AKP candidate 
lists does not appear to be hampering the party's course. 
Nor is AKP's conglomerate condition a barrier to success: as 
Sivas Bar Association VP Mustafa Coskun noted, "AKP is like a 
nice restaurant where people gather, sit at separate tables, 
and have no idea about the topics of conversations going on 
around them." 
 
 
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KONYA: ERDOGAN AND ALLAH AGREE, AKP SHOULD WIN 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
3. (C) Even without a coherent party identity, AKP threatens 
a local election landslide in Konya, one of the cradles of 
Turkey's religious conservatives, as voters embrace PM 
Erdogan's "wind of change" theme.  "Political tension isn't 
very high in Konya because there's no serious opposition," 
notes Tahir Akyurek, a local attorney and AKP's candidate for 
mayor.  "AKP has filled the center of Turkish national and 
local politics."  This widely held perception, echoed by 
demoralized left-of-center CHP, center-right ANAP, and 
rightist-nationalist MHP party officials in Konya, has 
spurred confident AKP candidates to forgo campaign platforms 
or strategies. "Image is the most important issue in these 
elections," AKP Chairman Ali Surucu proclaimed. "We're going 
to win because we're the party of Erdogan." 
 
 
4. (C) Only Konya's 3rd term SP (Islamist leader Erbakan's 
Saadet Party) Mayor Mustafa Ozkafa is mounting serious 
opposition.  Mirroring MHP and CHP candidates, Ozkafa has 
removed any hint of his party affiliation from his campaign 
rhetoric, billboards and banners.  Ozkaya is struggling to 
personalize the race against AKP's Akyurek, hoping to take 
Erdogan's invisible hand out of the election.  However, 
according to the Chairmen of Konya's Chamber of Commerce and 
Small Businessmen's Association, Ozkafa's administration has, 
at best, erected hurdles to development for the business 
community.  Seizing on business sentiment, many unemployed 
voters blame Ozkaya for the area's economic woes.  Backward 
looking, Ozkaya is campaigning on his "legacy of public 
works," which neither voters nor businessmen seem convinced 
is reason to reelect him.  As a result, either Allah or 
Erdogan (used interchangeably by AKP officials in this 
historically religious-conservative province), is poised to 
deliver AKP a resounding victory. 
 
 
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AKSARAY: AKP CANDIDATE OUT OF TOUCH, POSSIBLY OUT OF LUCK 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
5. (C) As in Konya, unemployment, city infrastructure 
development, and candidates' integrity are repeated campaign 
slogans in the agricultural province of Aksaray, but for AKP, 
don't extend much beyond populist rhetoric.  Contacts in 
Aksaray echoed largely what we heard in Konya -- AKP's 
national prominence will likely translate to local election 
victories.  However, unique local factors, including a strong 
MHP metropolitan mayor, weigh against an AKP landslide. 
AKP's candidate - Nevzat Palta - moved to Aksaray from his 
permanent residence in Ankara just 60 days before the 
election.  State-operated Anatolia News Agency's Bureau Chief 
Nevzat Altinok whispered that AKP party officials only bowed 
to Nevzat's candidacy after "out-of-touch" AKP 
parliamentarians threatened to walk out on the party. 
 
 
6. (C) Sharing a common, colorless theme with Konya's AKP 
candidate for mayor, Palta has been accused of pirating 
campaign strategies, promises, and projects from his popular 
incumbent opponent.  Indeed, Mayor Osman Ertugrul has fired 
back with public statements criticizing Palta for being out 
of touch with Aksaray: "He's promising voters projects that 
I've already implemented."  Despite these charges, Palta's 
confidence is brazen: "I would not be exaggerating if I told 
you my main opposition is myself," he observes, "I don't 
regard the mayor as a threat."  Both Palta and AKP are 
counting on the 49% of the electorate who voted for AKP in 
national elections to come back to the polls.  On the other 
hand, Ertugrul, whose well oiled press machine is running in 
high gear, has done his best to highlight an impressive 
legacy of development that has placed businesses and voters 
squarely in his corner. 
 
 
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SIVAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL 
------------------------ 
 
 
7. (C) Sivas Deputy Governor Celil Ozbey summed the race in 
Sivas: "If you ask the candidates, each will tell you he'll 
win by 60%; if you ask someone on the street, he'll tell you 
all three are tied."  As a matter of Anatolian pride, key 
officials from AKP, Islamist-nationalist BBP, and Islamist SP 
place special emphasis on capturing local elections in Sivas. 
 AKP is pressing because Deputy PM Abdullatif Sener, who is 
actively campaigning across the province, is from Sivas.  BBP 
National Chairman Muhsin Yazicioglu and his long-time 
subordinate Nevzat Yanmaz are personally invested because 
both are from Sivas.  Mayor Osman Secilmis has controlled 
Sivas for the last 8 years for SP.  CHP led Sivas from 1918 
to 1984. 
 
 
8. (C) Largely seen as a friend of Sivas, significant 
minority (Alevi, Armenian and Bahai) constituency, SP,s 
Mayor Secilmis is mounting a strong campaign against &AKP,s 
wind of change.8  According to AKP Provincial Chairman 
Hakkan Akkas, &Our race is not with SP, it,s against their 
candidate.8  Secilmis, who lives in a predominantly Alevi 
district of Sivas, is making a strong showing.  Shop owners, 
taxi drivers and CHP party officials agree: &He,s our 
neighbor.  Every time a child is born, he,s there to kiss 
it; when someone dies, he,s at the funeral.  People 
appreciate that.8  Conspicuously, despite repeated 
questioning, AKP party officials avoided discussing any 
details about their party's candidate, focusing instead on 
Erdogan,s national appeal. 
 
 
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ACCEPTANCE OF TRADITION KEEPS AKP'S WOMEN BEHIND THE SCENES 
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9.  (C) "AK is a totally new vision that is still being 
defined," according to AKP Konya Women's Branch Chairman 
Gokcen Sahar.  Unfortunately, as she reluctantly admits, the 
party's men, who don't see a role for women in politics, are 
drafting the vision.  More readily vocal than many of his AKP 
party colleagues, Konya Provincial Chairman Ali Surucu 
articulated AKP's Konya approach: "Women should do what women 
do best ) raise children.  Mothers have to fulfill their 
primary duty ) being a mother; then they can think about 
politics.  How can you be a good mother and work at the same 
time?"  Indicative of the strength of traditional patterns in 
Konya, Sahar agreed, "Our women's auxiliary is focusing on 
teaching women how to be good mothers.  Domestic violence and 
women's health issues are important -- that's why we need to 
teach mother's about their family responsibilities." 
 
 
10.  (C) AKP women in the region continue readily to embrace 
this mixture of conservative culture, conservative 
interpretation of Islam, and domineering male political 
attitudes.  Committed to their back-seat roles as child 
bearers and carers, AKP women in this region do not yet show 
that they are ready to compete for political prominence. 
Forty women in Sivas and another thirty women in Aksaray -- 
all on the board of directors of AKP Women's Auxiliaries -- 
fell back on cautious arguments: "We just don't have any 
women who are interested in running for office." 
EDELMAN