US embassy cable - 04ANKARA1834

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001834 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, TU 
SUBJECT: AK PARTY'S WESTERN BLACK SEA REGION ELECTION 
OPPONENTS HOLDING THEIR OWN AND CRYING FOUL 
 
 
(U) Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons 1.4 b and 
d. 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Candidates running against ruling AK Party 
(AKP) in the western Black Sea region appear to be holding 
their own as they approach March 28 local election.  At the 
same time they accuse AKP of using "bribes and blackmail" to 
influence voters.  They assert AKP's national success is due 
primarily to corruption and weak leadership among the other 
parties, and predict that wary voters will begin to look for 
alternatives in the aftermath of the elections.  AKP 
officials say the party's national influence enables it to 
better serve cities and municipalities.  As elsewhere in 
Turkey, women are not playing a major role in the AKP 
campaigns in the region.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (U) Emboffs traveled March 22-23 to the western Black Sea 
cities of Eregli, Zonguldak, and Mengen to discuss the March 
28 local elections with candidates, party officials, and 
local residents. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Opponents Accuse AK of "Bribes and Blackmail" 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) All of our contacts, including AKP members, told us 
voters in the region traditionally favor "social democratic" 
parties, which in Turkey means left-of-center parties such as 
CHP (Republican People's Party) and DSP (Democratic Left 
Party), although voters have also put parties on the right in 
power.  However, they said, corruption and inept leadership 
have driven voters away from those parties, and AKP's status 
as the party in power holds attraction for some.  Mayors in 
Eregli (Motherland Party - ANAP), Zonguldak (CHP) and Mengen 
(Nationalist Movement Party - MHP) all asserted AKP is taking 
advantage of its position as the ruling party in Ankara  to 
use "bribes and blackmail" to influence voters.  Eregli Mayor 
Halil Posbiyik, who has won substantial popularity owing to 
his common touch and ability to win the EU's "European City" 
designation owing to his urban planning reforms, said AKP has 
been promising Eregli residents money and academic 
scholarships if they elect the AKP mayoral candidate.  In 
addition, party members claim an AKP mayor would feed the 
poor 12 months a year, rather than just for the month of 
Ramazan, as the city does now. "Lies, lies, lies," Posbiyik 
said. "One day (PM) Erdogan will suffer for all these lies." 
 
 
4. (C) AKP officials in Eregli, while claiming that their 
mayoral and municipal assembly candidates are "honest," made 
it clear they consider AKP's national influence their main 
selling point.  AKP Eregli Subprovincial Chairman Mustafa 
Demirel summed up the party's campaign theme with one word: 
"service."  Asked to elaborate, he said that AKP candidates 
in Eregli are telling voters the GOT will postpone the 
planned privatization of the Erdemir steel plant, Eregli's 
main employer.  Demirel implied to us that the postponement 
might be indefinite, and said AKP is selling voters on the 
idea that Eregli would benefit from having the national 
government, municipality, and Erdemir plant under the same 
party.  This theme is underscored by an AKP campaign banner 
reading, "Government and Municipality, Hand in Hand."  AKP is 
betting that people will vote for their candidates for fear 
that privatizing the high-paying plant will mean layoffs, 
Demirel said. 
 
 
5. (C) Posbiyik accused AKP of distributing food and clothing 
to voters, and paying the unemployed to participate in party 
rallies.  He added that AKP has pressured the Erdemir 
management to call on employees to vote for AKP.  Claiming 
the workers aren't fooled, he said many have secretly donated 
to his campaign.  In a separate meeting, Erdemir's chief 
fireman confirmed to us that the workers oppose privatization 
but support Posbiyik's reelection. 
 
 
6. (C) CHP officials in Zonguldak also said AKP is bribing 
the poor with coal, clothing, and food (note: earlier in the 
year we heard in the Aegean province of Manisa that AKP 
arranged deliveries of coal to poor families there as well. 
End note).  Zonguldak Mayor Ismail Esref and Mengen Mayor Ali 
Budak told us AKP is trying to "blackmail" voters by 
threatening that the national government will cut off support 
for local services unless they vote AKP.  Budak introduced us 
to two former AKP members he recruited as municipal assembly 
candidates.  They both told us they objected to the 
"aggressive" tactics AKP is using in the campaign. 
 
 
7. (C) Nevertheless, Posbiyik, Esref, and Budak all told us 
they are confident their reputations and records in office 
will assure them victory on election day.  AKP officials in 
Zonguldak predicted victory in the mayoral race, but those in 
Eregli and Mengen focused on the municipal assembly races and 
avoided commenting directly on their chances of defeating the 
incumbent mayors. 
 
 
----------------------------------------- 
After Election - New Political Landscape? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
8. (C) Several of our non-AKP contacts predicted that a 
viable alternative to AKP, or at least the beginning of one, 
will emerge from the fallout of the elections.  Posbiyik 
averred that the elections could spell the end of some of the 
smaller parties, such as ANAP, and voters wary of AKP could 
begin to rally behind new opposition leaders.  He opined that 
Turks are "lending" their votes to AKP until a better 
alternative arises.  But Eregli residents, like some others 
across Turkey, worry that AKP is hiding an Islamist agenda 
beneath a pro-EU cover. "Erbakan (former PM from the Islamist 
Refah Party) swam six meters under the surface, but AK swims 
25 meters under," Posbiyik said. "You can't see what they're 
doing."  CHP Zonguldak Provincial Chairman Ali Kocal averred 
that if AKP's support increases it will be trouble for 
Turkey.  Success will make the ruling party arrogant, and its 
emboldened leaders will begin to pursue an Islamist agenda 
that will pose a threat to secularism and stir conflict, he 
asserted.  To avoid that, he predicted, voters will begin to 
turn more toward CHP and other opposition parties. 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
AK Women Take Back Seat in Region 
--------------------------------- 
 
 
9. (U) As in the rest of Turkey, women occupy a minor place 
on AKP candidate lists in the region.  In Eregli, out of a 
total of 25 candidates, AK is running three women for 
municipal council, none for mayor.  In Zonguldak, two of 31 
AK municipal assembly candidates are women; none of the AKP 
mayoral candidates is a woman. In Mengen, AKP has no women 
among its 12 candidates.  For CHP, by contrast, six of 25 
Eregli candidates and six of 31 Zonguldak candidates are 
women.  In keeping with AKP's stated policy, none of the 
party's women candidates in Eregli wear headscarves, but all 
members of the party's local Women's Auxiliary do. 
 
 
10. (C) While we scheduled separate meetings with AKP leaders 
and Auxiliary members, two male party members joined our 
Auxiliary meeting, often interrupting and dominating the 
conversation.  Kamile Saatci, Women's Auxiliary president, 
claimed there are no problems concerning equality for women 
in Eregli, due to the town's relative affluence.  When we 
asked whether there is a need for more women to become 
engaged in politics, she said "it would be good" to have more 
women candidates.  The Auxiliary's sole mission is to raise 
the women's vote for AK.  Saatci described for us how 
Auxiliary members go door-to-door, having tea with women in 
their homes.  She said the group does not discuss women's 
issues, encourage women to run for office, or develop a 
women's platform for candidates.  In Mengen, we asked AKP 
Subprovincial Chairman Sadik Erdogan why AKP is running no 
women candidates.  He claimed that prospective women 
candidates had asked to be given "priority," but the party 
refused, giving priority instead to people with professional 
backgrounds, such as engineers and architects. 
 
 
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Comment 
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11. (C) The accusations against AKP come as no surprise, 
given AKP's position as the sole ruling party.  In these 
local elections, we expect a number of non-AKP incumbents to 
retain their seats based on individual popularity. 
Nevertheless, opposition parties will not succeed in slowing 
AK's momentum by relying solely on trying to fan public fears 
that AKP's true intentions are malign. 
EDELMAN