US embassy cable - 04HARARE530

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000530 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: HOTLY CONTESTED URBAN CONSTITUENCY UP FOR GRABS IN 
MARCH 27-28 PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Sporadic violence and intimidation has 
characterized the campaign period in an important 
parliamentary by-election to be held in Zengeza (a 
high-density suburb of Harare) March 27-28.  The opposition 
MDC selected a candidate rumored not to be the choice of the 
MDC membership in Zengeza.  For the first time since the 2002 
presidential elections, the Electoral Supervisory Commission 
(ESC) formally accredited Harare-based diplomats to observe; 
however, the accreditation did not result in full access to 
campaign events.  Zengeza will be a key yardstick for both 
parties.  ZANU-PF has loudly forecast victory but a loss in 
this urban area would simply preserve the status quo and not 
cost the party much.  The poll is especially important to the 
MDC: a loss in this constituency it won decisively in the 
past would further sap party morale and magnify its decline. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) The Zengeza seat was left vacant by the departure of 
MDC MP Tafadzwa Musekiwa, who fled to the UK in 2003 and has 
applied for asylum.  The contesting candidates are 
Christopher Chigumba for ZANU-PF, James Makore for the MDC, 
Tendai Chakanyuka for the National Alliance for Good 
Governance (NAGG) and Gideon Chinogureyi of ZANU-Ndonga. 
(Comment: The latter two candidates represent very small 
parties that have been all but invisible during the campaign 
period.  End Comment.) 
 
MDC Candidate Selection Snafu 
----------------------------- 
 
3. (C) In mid-February groups of MDC members from Zengeza 
reportedly went twice to the MDC's offices at Harvest House 
in downtown Harare to protest the MDC leadership's selection 
of Makore as the party's Zengeza candidate.  MDC youths 
dispersed the crowds with force on both days, resulting in 
reported injuries to five MDC members.  MDC Secretary General 
Welshman Ncube met with representatives of the groups on 
February 18.  Ncube told Poloff that MDC National Party 
Chairman Isaac Matongo had not properly confirmed agreement 
between MDC Zengeza local officials and the MDC Zengeza 
membership on candidate selection.  Nevertheless, Matongo 
reported back to Harvest House that the constituency had 
chosen Makore.  A separate inquiry from within the MDC 
reportedly revealed that the constituency actually favored 
Zengeza local MDC official Charlton Hwende.  Ncube 
acknowledged that Matongo had failed to follow MDC procedures 
in verifying the candidate selection but had persuaded the 
Zengeza membership representatives to accept Makore 
nonetheless. 
 
MDC Candidate Makore 
-------------------- 
 
4. (C) Emboffs conferred with MDC candidate Makore frequently 
by phone and other diplomats met him on numerous occasions at 
his campaign headquarters.  In the final weeks of the 
campaign, some 80-100 MDC youths camped in Makore's yard, 
with another 40-50 women staying inside the house itself. 
Makore said the youths provided security while the women 
inside provided further protection.  In various conversations 
with diplomats Makore said that campaigning had been 
difficult especially in early March, but things had quieted 
down somewhat for the last week. 
 
ZANU-PF Candidate Chigumba 
-------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Emboffs attempted repeatedly to contact and meet with 
Chigumba.  On separate occasions Chigumba yelled over the 
phone at emboff and a UK diplomat and refused to meet or 
talk.  Swedish diplomats did manage to meet Chigumba briefly 
by the side of the road in Zengeza.  Chigumba berated the 
diplomats and white people in general for their supposed 
colonial intentions, and for supporting their "puppets", the 
MDC.  Chigumba also criticized MDC youths for attacking 
ZANU-PF members.  He alleged that MDC youths attached four 
ZANU-PF members, one of whom was an elderly woman who 
subsequently sought medical attention. 
 
Violence and Intimidation 
------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Makore and other MDC officials reported sporadic 
violence and intimidation in the run-up to the election.  The 
candidate said that by March 22 ZANU-PF supporters had beaten 
about thirty MDC supporters, seriously enough to need medical 
attention.  Makore said that they had relied on female 
activists to assist with campaigning in the hope that they 
would be less targeted for abuse by ZANU-PF youths and 
militia members.  On March 22 a Harare-based Swedish diplomat 
reported interviewing a woman at the MDC's Zengeza campaign 
headquarters who had been threatened and beaten by ZANU-PF 
supporters.  On March 19, the same diplomat interviewed a 
woman at a local torture rehabilitation center who reported 
that she knew of four other women who were beaten by ZANU-PF 
supporters and hospitalized on March 17. 
 
7. (U) The MDC reported that on March 10 ZANU-PF youths 
abducted MDC youth Enock Mukudu and stabbed him in the leg 
before they demanded and Mukudu paid them Z$30,000 (about 
US$7.00) for his release. 
 
8. (U) The MDC reported that on March 10 about 100 ZANU-PF 
youths stoned three houses belonging to members of the 
opposition in Zengeza, including the house of candidate James 
Makore.  On March 18, a Harare-based Canadian diplomat 
reported that several windows of Makore's house were broken 
and there was visible damage to roofing tiles.  The MDC 
reported that ZANU-PF youths also beat an unspecified number 
of people in the near vicinity and stole household goods on 
March 10. 
 
9. (U) The MDC reported that ZANU-PF youths disrupted its 
official campaign launch rally on March 7 and the party 
rescheduled the rally for the following week with a request 
for greater police protection.  The party then held its 
launch rally on March 14.  About 350 MDC members attended. 
Also present were twenty Zimbabwe Republic Police and 
representatives from the Electoral Supervisory Commission 
(ESC). 
 
10. (U) On March 19, the MDC reported that ZANU-PF youth 
members had been patrolling Zengeza in recent weeks and 
harassing suspected MDC members, forcing people to attend 
ZANU-PF meetings and rallies, preventing people from 
attending MDC meetings, tearing down MDC campaign posters and 
attacking MDC members who were putting up posters. 
 
11. (C) Makore and other MDC members reported that soldiers 
in civilian clothes had visited MDC activists' homes in 
Zengeza late at night in recent weeks.  The MDC members said 
that the soldiers had beaten some of them and threatened them 
with unspecified consequences if they continued campaigning 
for the MDC.  (Comment:  The MDC members were unable to 
explain satisfactorily how they knew the perpetrators were 
soldiers if they were in civilian clothes.  End Comment.) 
 
Vote Buying Allegations 
----------------------- 
 
12. (C) The MDC alleged that ZANU-PF activists had given 
residents Z$10,000 (about US$2.33) and later shouted in the 
streets that the recipients should attend upcoming rallies or 
face unspecified consequences.  (Comment:  With party's 
resources extremely tight, we find it unlikely that ZANU-PF 
would have done this on a large scale.  End Comment.)  The 
MDC also alleged that ZANU-PF officials were confiscating 
national identity cards from residents who were then ordered 
to vote ZANU-PF in order to get their identity cards back on 
voting day. 
 
Accreditation / Observing 
------------------------- 
 
13. (C) In many recent by-elections the GOZ has ignored 
Harare diplomats' requests for accreditation.  However, for 
the Gutu-North by-election in February diplomats were invited 
to observe using only their Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
diplomatic identification cards.  In the Zengeza election, 
however, the GOZ announced that the ESC would grant 
diplomats' requests for accreditation if the requests were 
forwarded through the MFA, and if diplomats paid a US$100.00 
accreditation fee.  Eleven diplomats from Western embassies 
obtained accreditation this way, including four emboffs. 
According to ESC officials, at least thirty independent 
observers, mostly from local NGOs, were also 
accredited--paying a much lower fee in local currency. 
(Note:  According to the Deputy Reserve Bank Governor, only 
the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) was 
authorized to charge in foreign currency.  End Note.)  Post 
has coordinated with other missions to visit Zengeza in the 
weeks before the election, and will coordinate on the voting 
days to observe the voting itself. 
 
Observing: Emboffs Chased from ZANU-PF Rally 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
14. (C) On March 24 two emboffs were chased away from a 
ZANU-PF rally of about 300 people in Zengeza 4.  As emboffs 
walked along the road apart from the rally area itself, a 
local ZANU-PF official approached, asked what they were doing 
there and whether they had been invited.  Emboffs responded 
that they were there to observe the rally and showed their 
ESC accreditation cards.  The official inquired whether 
emboffs had been invited; emboffs responded that they had 
informed the ZANU-PF candidate of their interest in attending 
the rally.  The official asked emboffs to leave.  As they 
began walking back to their car, other ZANU-PF officials 
approached emboffs and yelled similar comments: what interest 
did the U.S. have in little Zimbabwe; Zimbabwe was not like 
Iraq; emboffs needed to be accompanied by representatives of 
"the Ministry"; emboffs' accreditation cards were not valid 
until voting started.  To each accusation emboffs responded 
that they were happy to leave.  As emboffs prepared to drive 
away, a ZANU-PF official threatened to beat emboffs and the 
embassy driver.  Emboffs departed without further incident. 
 
15. (C) When emboffs first arrived at this rally, they 
consulted with several ESC observers who said they had not 
been informed of the rally, but were just driving by, noticed 
the gathering, and stopped.  The ESC representatives left 
before the candidate had arrived and the rally started. 
There were young men milling around unthreateningly. 
(Comment: it was unclear whether these were ZANU-PF youths or 
militia members. End Comment.)  Almost all of the 300 
attendees were wearing ZANU-PF T-shirts.  The crowed was 
subdued, huddled in small groups with some standing, some 
sitting. 
 
Observing: Militia Bases? 
------------------------- 
 
16. (C) The MDC reported that ZANU-PF had set up seven 
militia bases in Zengeza and provided emboff with the 
addresses of each one.  Emboff and a British diplomat visited 
a few of the sites.  They observed nothing noteworthy at one 
and a group of about 15-20 youths milling without apparent 
purpose at another.  In the vicinity of what was the reported 
site of the largest base, the diplomats observed a crowd of 
about 50 individuals, many wearing ZANU-PF T-shirts.  Alcohol 
flowed freely at what one participant described as a ZANU-PF 
command center.  After a polite exchange between the 
diplomats and a gathering crowd of ZANU-PF supporters, a 
ZANU-PF official approached the team and requested to see 
their ESC accreditation cards.  Emboff and the UK diplomat 
complied.  The individual said he was concerned for the 
diplomats' safety at the hands of MDC youths and did not want 
ZANU-PF to be blamed for anything bad that might happen to 
the diplomats. 
 
17. (C) In the 2000 parliamentary election and the 2002 
presidential poll the MDC polled about 15,000 votes in 
Zengeza.  In the same two elections, ZANU-PF polled about 
5,400 votes. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
18. (C) The stakes are high for both parties this time 
around.  Zengeza and the upcoming by-election in Lupane (a 
rural constituency in Matabeleland North) will be important 
yardsticks for both parties to set momentum for 2005 general 
elections.  For ZANU-PF, a win in Zengeza would demonstrate 
that the ruling party has made solid inroads into an urban 
high-density area -- something that it has thus far not 
achieved.  Despite official media predictions of a ZANU-PF 
victory, the ruling party is the underdog in this fight and a 
loss would likely not affect the party's overall prospects in 
the run-up to March 2005.  A win for the MDC would help 
arrest growing public perceptions that its popularity is on 
the wane; a loss in an urban high-density area would be a 
serious blow.  Although the question of ZANU-PF obtaining a 
two-thirds parliamentary majority before March 2005 is almost 
moot, for the record, the ruling party still needs four more 
seats to achieve that goal. 
 
19. (C) Absent intimidation and improper manipulations, the 
voting tallies from previous elections in Zengeza suggest an 
easy MDC win.  With the ruling party's strong organization 
and heavy-handed tactics, its motivated supporters can be 
counted on to vote.  The election's outcome may turn on the 
extent to which the MDC can motivate enough of its faithful 
to overcome voter apathy and disillusionment, brave the risks 
of harassment, and get out and vote on their principles. 
SULLIVAN