US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS1304

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001304 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU CONSTITUTIONAL TREATY NEGOTIATIONS TO RE-START 
IN APRIL, CONCLUDE IN JUNE 
 
REF: USEU TODAY 3/19/04 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (SBU) EU leaders at their March 25 Summit dinner agreed to 
an Irish Presidency recommendation that the EU's 
Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) on a draft EU 
Constitutional Treaty, which collapsed in December 2003 due 
to disagreements about voting weights, should be re-started, 
with the aim of completing negotiations by the June 17-18 EU 
Summit.  Irish PM Bertie Ahern said his government would 
begin work next week on IGC preparations, including for a 
planned visit to Dublin by Spanish PM-elect Zapatero in the 
third week of April.  No formal IGC session should be 
expected until the end of April.  Even then, Ahern said, some 
Member States had already made clear that they would not be 
prepared to engage in serious negotiations on some key issues 
until May at the earliest. 
 
2. (SBU) Ahern and other EU leaders, such as European 
Parliament (EP) President Pat Cox, said they would very much 
like to complete the IGC negotiations in time for the June 
10-13 EP elections.  Ahern said the Irish "would try our 
best" to conclude by June 10, but noted that the specific 
target EU leaders had set was the June 17-18 EU Summit.  An 
IGC source told us talk of finishing prior to the elections 
was only window-dressing; many EU leaders prefer that a final 
Constitutional Treaty deal come only after the EP elections, 
to avoid having the new Treaty and the question of whether it 
should be put to referendum for ratification becoming major 
campaign issues.  (COMMENT: The referendum issue can be 
partially defused by this timeline, as leaders will say "we 
can't decide whether a referendum is appropriate until we 
know exactly what will be in the document."  Nonetheless, we 
expect that the Constitutional Treaty will become a central 
campaign issue in at least some states.  End Comment.) 
 
3. (C) COMMENT:  The IGC is re-starting because, as Polish FM 
Cimosiewicz put it, all EU Member States now accept that a 
compromise can be found using a "double majority" formula for 
voting in the Council, but that formula cannot be the "50 
percent of Member States representing 60 percent of the 
population" formula in the current draft.  Spain and Poland 
have relaxed their "Nice or nothing" stance, while France and 
Germany have dropped their insistence on the 50/60 formula. 
While some media and EU governments continue to push for a 
formula with a higher threshold for Member States but a lower 
bar for population, we believe (as reported Ref A) that the 
most likely solution will be one that raises both 
percentages.  Even if that formula can be agreed, the Irish 
Presidency will still face tough negotiations on a number of 
other issues, particularly whether additional policy areas 
should move from consensus to "double majority" voting.  If 
the Irish weren't confident they could reach a comprehensive 
deal, they would not have re-started the IGC; but success is 
still not assured. 
 
SCHNABEL