US embassy cable - 04LAGOS637

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000637 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY, PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  SOUTHERN SNAPSHOTS - MARCH 2004 
 
REF: A) LAGOS 562 B) LAGOS 296 C) 2003 LAGOS 2187 AND 
     PREVIOUS 
 
"It wasn't me...or maybe it was." 
 
1. (U) Continuing its losing ways, the Alliance for Democracy 
Party (AD) lost another challenge to the April 2003 elections 
that gave the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) five of the six 
southwestern gubernatorial offices AD had held since 1999. 
 
2. (U) Immediately after the elections, the AD had brought 
suit in the Elections Tribunal charging that newly elected 
PDP Ekiti State Governor Peter Ayodele Fayose had presented 
false credentials to the State Independent Election 
Commission, and was thus not qualified to run for or hold the 
office of Governor. (ref B)  The AD claimed that the school 
records and other documents Fayose submitted bore the name 
"Peter Ayodele Oluwayose", a resident of Ibadan in Ogun 
State.  Fayose put his father on the stand to testify that 
God had told him (the father) to change the family name to 
Oluwayose or die. After several postponements, the last one 
ordered when fighting broke out in the courtroom between 
supporters of the two parties, the Tribunal threw out the AD 
case saying that AD did not offer sufficient proof that 
Fayose was not also Oluwayose and, thus the true owner of the 
credentials. 
 
3. (U) Two weeks later, the Tribunal issued a decision in the 
AD's case against PDP Delta State Governor James Ibori.  The 
AD claimed that Ibori was ineligible because he had been 
convicted in 1995 of theft by fraud of over ten million 
naira.  Based on the testimony of a defense witness who 
claimed that he was the one who had been charged and 
convicted, and not Ibori, the Tribunal decided that someone 
named James Onanefe Ibori had been convicted, but it was not 
proven that this person and Governor James Ibori were one and 
the same.  The day after the decision, the witness clarified 
his testimony saying that he was not convicted instead of 
Ibori -- they were both convicted of the crime of theft by 
fraud on the same day, but in separate trials.  The AD has 
vowed to appeal the Fayose case and the Ibori case is set for 
retrial in April. 
 
OPC now stands for peace 
 
4. (U)  Once proscribed for its violence prone activities and 
labeled as terrorists by President Obasanjo, the pan-Yoruba 
group, Odua Peoples Congress (OPC), may have resolved to 
follow the path of peace.  Gani Adams, leader of one of the 
two factions of OPC, stressed the organization's new image 
during his opening remarks at a March 16 OPC-organized 
conference in Lagos calling for no violence in the up-coming 
local government elections. Prominent Nigerians, including 
diplomats, former Ministers, and civil society leaders 
attended the conference.  Owelle Rochas Okorocha, 
Presidential Advisor on Inter-party Affairs, represented the 
Presidency, and Lagos Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu also sent a 
representative. 
 
5. (U) Adams described the conference as the first in a 
program of political education that the OPC hopes will serve 
as a catalyst for "positive political socialization" in 
Nigeria.  He said the one-day meeting is part of the OPC's 
plan to help find a new and lasting solution to Nigeria's 
historical difficulty with maintaining democratic governance 
through "free and fair elections."  Adams, who is also on the 
Presidential Committee on Peace, used the occasion to 
distance his faction from the recent spate of attacks and 
violence he blamed on the other faction led by Dr. Frederick 
Faseun. 
 
6. (U) Comment. The conference highlighted the fact that 
Adams' faction has been gaining support from the respectable 
side of Nigeria's political and civil society establishments. 
 In reaction to the recent spike in attacks on prominent 
persons, some political leaders have even hired members of 
the OPC as bodyguards.  Governor Tinubu and other notables 
attended Adams' wedding a few months ago.  If the March 27 
local government elections come off relatively peacefully in 
the southwest, it might be a sign that there is a new and 
responsible OPC dedicated to peace and unity in Nigeria. 
End comment. 
 
 
Pa Adesanya takes sick leave 
 
7. (U) Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political group that 
is designated to mediate between two rival factions of the AD 
(ref A), announced in mid-March that its octogenarian leader, 
"Pa" Abraham Adesanya, was leaving his position, temporarily, 
to seek medical treatment abroad.  Chief Reuben Fasoranti, 
according to Afenifere's National Publicity Secretary, Dayo 
Adeyeye, is to be the "Acting Leader" until Adesanya "comes 
back and is in a position to function as leader." 
Fasoranti's political credentials date from the First and 
Second Republics in Nigeria.  He was close to famed Yoruba 
leader, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo.  He is from Ondo 
State and served as State Commissioner of Finance in the 
early 1980's.  Fasoranti is currently the Ondo State leader 
of Afenifere. 
 
8. (U) Comment. The AD split into two factions after losing 
badly in the April 2003 general elections.  Afenifere, one of 
the organizations that helped found the AD, was asked to lend 
Adesanya to mediate so that the Party could present a united 
slate of candidates in the March 27 local government 
elections.  Unfortunately, just as negotiations were to 
begin, Adesanya suffered a major, crippling stroke. 
Reportedly, before he stepped down, Adesanya got the two 
sides to pledge to submit a unified slate.  The appointment 
of Fasoranti, who is not from Lagos and does not have a 
following in either Afenifere or AD, seems to be the best 
move the two groups can make with only a week until the 
elections.  Fasoranti is a "place holder" to keep the groups 
stabilized until after the elections and/or Adesanya is able 
to resume his leadership. 
HINSON-JONES