US embassy cable - 04ISTANBUL448

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000448 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS FOR DUMMIES 
 
 
1. (u) Summary: The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is 
poised for landslide victories in most of the March 28 
Istanbul municipal elections.  AKP candidate Kadir Topbas 
looks to be a shoo-in for the top prize -- Istanbul Mayor -- 
and AKP candidates are also expected to take the lion's share 
of the 32 district mayorships, city council seats, and other 
assorted local positions.  The Republican People's Party 
(CHP) will probably hold the wealthier districts of Sisli and 
Kadikoy, and may pick up similarly affluent Besiktas and 
Bakirkoy at the expense of the faltering Motherland Party 
(ANAP).  One or two other poorer districts where the 
conservative vote is hotly contested by AKP and Saadet Party 
may fall by default into the hands of CHP or another party. 
Rather than belabor the obvious AKP landslide, we offer 
instead a "how to"-guide for those interested in the nuts and 
bolts of the election process in Istanbul.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (u) Istanbul's streets are festooned with colorful 
banners, its buildings plastered with large candidate photos, 
the air filled by the shrill noise of loudspeakers.  The 
holiday-like atmosphere is for the upcoming March 28 local 
elections.  Here is our "Istanbul Municipal Elections For 
Dummies" -- a "how-to"-guide that will help you and your 
political party gain a local foothold in the Istanbul 
municipality (or help explain why your rivals succeeded where 
you failed). 
 
 
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Organization, Organization, Organization 
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3. (u) The cardinal rule and sine qua non for success in 
municipal elections in Istanbul is to build a strong 
"teskilat," or party organization.  The standard structure 
consists of an executive committee with parallel women's and 
youth branches.  Each committee (and branch committee) has 
members assigned to head sub-committees for each of the key 
party functions, including election affairs, media, public 
relations, financial issues, local government, organizational 
affairs, economic issues, social issues, research, and 
foreign affairs.  This entire structure is duplicated at the 
district level in each of the 32 local districts and again at 
the "mahalle" or neighborhood level.  Finally, each 
neighborhood committee assigns a certain number of party 
volunteers to each specific polling station in their area. 
 
 
4. (u) The numbers add up quickly.  The AKP Kucukcekmece 
district organization, for example, includes 90 members on 
the executive, women's, and youth committees.  There are 
another 30 members on each of the 26 neighborhood executive, 
women's, and youth committees (actually 28 neighborhoods, 
since they have divided the two largest into two).  AKP has 
also assigned 2 party members to work each of the polling 
stations.  Kucukcekmece AKP Chairman Mevlut Uysal told us 
that he has over 4,000 AKP members working as volunteers in 
the district party organization.  We have seen similar 
numbers and structures for the major political parties in 
each district and neighborhood we have visited.  Based on our 
observations and conversations with AKP officials, we 
estimate that there are between 120,000 and 150,000 AKP 
members working as volunteers in Istanbul.  (Note: Smaller 
political parties are unable to maintain such organizations. 
Some cannot even identify candidates for each district, much 
less staff and volunteers in each neighborhood and polling 
station). 
 
 
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Financing and Fund Raising 
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5. (u) A strong party organization is also one of the keys to 
successful fund raising.  Both our AKP and CHP contacts in 
major districts have told us that their estimated campaign 
expenses are from USD 200,000 to 250,000 in cash, in addition 
to in-kind contributions from party members and supporters 
(i.e., vehicles, office space, volunteers).  Much of this 
money comes from party members.  Dues are minimal (about USD 
4 annually for AKP), but ambitious party members are expected 
to make contributions in other ways.  One party member told 
us, for example, that he was told to "sell" 5 tickets to a 
fund raising dinner for about USD 40 each (he bought them 
himself).  Candidate applications are another major source of 
funding.  Applications for district mayor cost around USD 
4,000.  With as many as a dozen or more applications in some 
of their safer districts, AKP in particular was able to rely 
on these fees as a significant source of funding.  Fund 
raising dinners and receptions are an additional source of 
financing.  Cash contributions to political parties are 
limited by Turkish law to USD 40, but we suspect that most 
parties find ways around this regulation. 
 
 
----------------------------------------- 
(National) Success Breeds (Local) Success 
----------------------------------------- 
6. (u) Although the importance of individual candidates is a 
mantra that is frequently used to distinguish municipal 
elections from national elections, party affiliation remains 
a major factor in local electoral contests.  Turkey's 
government is highly-centralized with regard to most public 
administration functions (note: the parliament is currently 
discussing an AKP proposal to decentralize public 
administration). There is a widespread perception that having 
municipal officials from the parties in power nationally will 
lead to more funding and attention from Ankara.  Such 
candidates often try to use this perception to their 
advantage.  The AKP candidate for Kadikoy district mayor and 
his campaign manager freely admitted as much to poloff (note: 
the incumbent Kadikoy mayor is from CHP).  Countless voters 
have also told us that this is a major (and sometimes 
determining) factor in their decisions. 
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Touch All of Your Bases 
----------------------- 
7. (u) As is the case in any democratic country, there are 
certain individuals and organizations in Istanbul that 
exercise influence in the political process.  Successful 
politicians are careful to touch all of their bases to 
maximize their chances of appealing to the widest possible 
electorate.  In Istanbul these include: news and media 
organizations, labor and teachers' unions, assorted business 
associations, clubs (including Lion's and Rotary chapters) 
and, perhaps most interestingly, the myriad of "hemsehir," or 
fellow townsmen associations.  Politicians are expected to 
"call on" these organizations to introduce themselves, 
explain their plans, and ask for support. 
 
 
8. (u) The vast majority of Istanbul's population arrived in 
the last 30 years.  Most Istanbul residents continue to 
identify themselves with their hometowns, and even more 
narrowly with their home villages or districts.  Istanbul is 
home to over a million people from the Anatolian town of 
Sivas alone, with large numbers from the Black Sea, the 
Southeast, and rural Anatolia.  Istanbul has thousands of 
"fellow townsmen" cultural associations organized along these 
lines.  These associations serve primarily as community 
centers that host cultural activities and provide limited 
assistance to newly-arrived immigrants and to their home 
towns.  From a political perspective, however, their 
importance goes beyond their organizational capacity.  The 
bonds of kinship between fellow townsmen can often be a 
determining factor in voting patterns and behavior.  Politics 
in the Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul, for example, is 
dominated by its large concentration of residents from 
Giresun.  All of the successful parties take these 
considerations into account when choosing their candidates 
for municipal elections. 
 
 
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Hit the Street 
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9. (u) The active portion of the campaign period for Istanbul 
municipal elections is fairly short.  Most of the political 
parties postponed their official announcement of candidates 
until the legal deadline one month before the elections. 
Although some campaigning began earlier, most of the 
advertising and activities has been confined to the last few 
weeks.  The emphasis seems to be on roving campaign vehicles 
(replete with larger-than life photos of the candidates and 
sub-standard loud-speaker systems), outdoor billboard 
advertisements and banners, and newspaper advertisements and 
supplements.  Advertising on television and radio is banned. 
Campaign volunteers will often insert newspaper supplements 
about their candidates and hand out free copies of the 
newspapers.  Successful candidates spend much of their time 
touching the bases mentioned above and meeting with 
shopkeepers and visiting constituents in their districts. 
 
 
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Comment 
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10. (u) Despite the size of the Istanbul metropolitan area, 
local politics retains a town, even village-style flavor. 
The reputation of local candidates depends heavily on their 
family name, who they know, and where they are from.  AKP's 
likely success in the March 28 elections here in Istanbul 
stems in large part from its strong organizational base and 
its proximity and responsiveness to local voters.  As the 
first single-party government in decades, however, these 
elections are also viewed as a referendum on AKP's 
performance since November 2002.  We expect Istanbul voters 
to give AKP a ringing endorsement with about 50 percent of 
the total vote, the Istanbul mayorship, 23 or 24 of the 32 
district mayorships, and 75 percent or more of the city 
council seats. 
ARNETT