US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV1765

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, KPAL, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: ISRAELIS HUNKER DOWN THE DAY AFTER YASSIN KILLING 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 1742 
 
Classified By: DCM Richard B. LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Israel's politicians wasted little time in 
taking to the airwaves to defend, or in some cases take issue 
with, the March 22 killing of Hamas spiritual leader Shaykh 
Ahmad Yassin.  Sources in the PM's office expressed 
satisfaction with the U.S. response, and an MFA official said 
the assassination presented an opportunity to build up the 
Palestinian Authority, although he could offer nothing 
concrete to support that assertion.  A Gaza settler lobbyist 
reportedly declared the attack a victory over PM Sharon's 
disengagement plan.  Average Israelis, meanwhile, are 
preoccupied with their personal safety, fearing an upswing in 
terror attacks.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Predictable Reactions from the Political Establishment 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
2. (C) No great surprises emerged in the reactions from 
various Cabinet and Knesset members to the killing.  Those on 
the right end of the political spectrum tended to emphasize 
that Yassin was a legitimate target, and to support the 
calculation that the hit now was appropriate.  Those on the 
left were typically schizophrenic, with some voicing support, 
while others expressed concern about stoking the flames of 
terror.  Listed below are a few representative sound-bites: 
 
-- Finance Minister Netanyahu was quoted on Israel Radio as 
saying that no terrorist enjoys immunity, regardless of his 
status.  He said he believed that over the long term the 
elimination of Yassin would disrupt terrorism and deter 
terror leaders.  He also noted that on his release from 
prison in Israel (which took place under Netenyahu's 
premiership in a deal with Jordan), Yassin was cautioned not 
to engage in terrorism, and that in reverting to terror, 
Yassin had become a legitimate target. 
 
-- Deputy Prime Minister and Industry and Trade Minister Ehud 
Olmert defended the decision, while noting that the Yassin 
killing would not necessarily curtail Hamas attempts to 
perpetrate terror. 
 
-- Defense Minister Avraham Mofaz called Yassin a terror 
leader, likening him to Osama Bin Laden.  He said the 
operation (dubbed "Stick Shift") was part of the State of 
Israel's overall policy on the fight against Hamas, and that 
this fight would continue. 
 
-- Picking up on this theme, NRP MK Gila Finkelstein stated 
publicly that Yassin had been a "marked man, along with 
Rantisi, Nasrallah, Arafat, and Bin Laden." 
 
-- Opinion in the Labor faction was divided:  Opposition 
leader Shimon Peres said the decision to assassinate Yassin 
was a "mistake."  Speaking at a Labor faction meeting, Peres 
questioned the wisdom of assassinating leaders who were not 
"ticking bombs."  Noting that leaders can be replaced, he 
expressed the view that the more effective way to combat 
terror is to remove the reasons for terror."   He added that 
if he had been a member of the Cabinet, he would have voted 
against the operation.  Meanwhile, MKs Haim Ramon, Benjamin 
Ben-Eliezer, and Danny Yatom (the former head of Mossad) all 
voiced approval for the killing. 
 
-- Interior Minister Poraz (Shinui) told Israel Radio that he 
had opposed the Cabinet decision to target Hamas leaders, 
including Yassin.  He noted that he had warned his Cabinet 
colleagues that such an action was liable to increase 
terrorism. 
 
-- Israeli-Arab MK Ahmed Tibi called the killing of Yassin 
"madness," accusing GOI leaders of having become "arsonists," 
thereby exposing the citizens of Israel to harsh reactions. 
 
-- A Labor Party source in the Knesset told the Ambassador 
that an unidentified Gaza settler lobbyist was heard 
declaring victory over PM Sharon's disengagement plan 
because, the lobbyist said, the assassination signaled the 
start of a war against Hamas that would supersede the 
disengagement plan. 
 
--------------------------------- 
"Satisfaction" with U.S. Response 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Unnamed officials in the PM's office were quoted in 
Israeli media as expressing "satisfaction" over the U.S. 
response to the attack, pointing out that, unlike the 
Europeans and the UN Secretary-General, the United States had 
not "condemned" it.  Israel Radio concluded that the U.S. 
Administration was "speaking with two voices" on the issue, 
pointing out perceived differences between the statements 
made by officials at the White House and at the State 
Department.  The director of the MFA's policy planning staff, 
Tzion Evroni, told the Ambassador March 23 that he and his 
staff believe the assassination presents an opportunity to 
build up the Palestinian Authority, but, when pressed for 
details, had nothing to offer in support of that assertion. 
 
---------------------- 
Op-Ed Pages Devoted to 
Weariness, Fearfulness 
---------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Day-after op-ed pieces on the killing, of which 
there are many, all reflect an overwhelming public weariness 
and convey a collective sense of fearfulness, fatigue, and 
fatalism.  For example, commentator Nahum Barnea, writing in 
Yediot, notes the progression of Israel's "targeted killing" 
policy, which at first was limited to operational leaders and 
"engineers," then political leaders, and now spiritual 
leaders.  He charges that, "No one in the system, not even 
Sharon, believes that the assassination of the shaykh will 
reduce the scope of terror.  There is no strategy here, just 
bitter frustration and mounting difficulty to look the voters 
in the eye."  Asking rhetorically how many Jews Yassin will 
kill in his death, Barnea evokes a number of fears:  "The 
fear of a rekindled popular uprising of the kind that befell 
us after the Hasmonean tunnel was opened (in 1996) and after 
Sharon ascended the Temple Mount (in 2000).  The fear of a 
mega-terror attack.  The fear of a religious, Jewish-Islamic 
war.  The fear of attacks on Jewish communities, from 
Istanbul to Buenos Aires." 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Public Opinion Finds Killing Justified, 
Even While Anticipating Upswing in Terror 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Popular opinion does not lag far behind that of the 
opinion leaders in the press.  A Dachaf Polling Institute 
poll released in Yediot Ahronoth shows that approximately 60 
percent of the public viewed the Yassin killing as justified, 
but only three percent thought it would decrease terror in 
the short term.  A whopping 81 percent of the population 
predicted that terror would increase in the short term, while 
15 percent foresaw no impact.  Asked about the longer-term 
consequences, 32 percent predicted a decrease in terror 
attacks.  A similar pattern is apparent in a Hagal Hadadash 
poll published in Ma'ariv, which also showed that 43 percent 
of the public would support assassinating Arafat. 
 
6. (C) Anecdotal evidence that Israelis are hunkering down in 
anticipation of Hamas strikes in retaliation for the killing 
was already abundant on the day of the attack.  Indications 
of this trend are mounting on the day after.  For example: 
 
-- A daily commuter between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem told 
poloff that the trip yesterday took twice the usual time, 
since Israelis who normally travel via Route 443, which cuts 
into the West Bank, were afraid to do so.  In addition, 
checkpoints outside all cities slowed incoming traffic. 
 
-- Inner-city roads have been much more congested with 
traffic than usual, suggesting that Israelis who have the 
means to do so are avoiding public transport.  An Israel TV 
Channel 2 reporter conducting "man-on-the-street" interviews 
yesterday captured this phenomenon.  A young Israeli woman at 
a bus stop who had not previously heard the news responded to 
the interviewers question, "They killed Yassin?  Wow!  (Pause 
for thought....)  Then, I'm taking a cab!"  The camera showed 
her hailing the first cab that came along and diving into it. 
 
 
-- Demonstrators outside the Defense Ministry's Tel Aviv 
compound yesterday gave voice to the public's sense of 
vulnerability with signs (in English) reading:  "Stop Playing 
with Our Lives!"  This theme was sounded again today as 
protestors at Hebrew University, where Sharon was scheduled 
to meet with new immigrant students, held up a mock roulette 
wheel and changed, "Sharon is gambling with our lives." 
 
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