US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO520

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000520 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, DRL/CRA, INR/NESA 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  03/24/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, PINR, PTER, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka:  Level of violence falls markedly 
compared to past campaigns 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 231158Z Mar 04 
-      (B) Colombo 515, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The level of campaign-related violence 
in Sri Lanka has fallen markedly compared to that 
recorded in the past.  It is not clear why violence is 
down, but the Elections Commission, the police, and 
local and foreign monitors have worked hard to tamp down 
the violence.  That said, with just over one week to go 
before the April 2 parliamentary election, violence 
could still surge, and, based on past patterns, post- 
election violence could be a problem, too.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) RELATIVELY CALM CAMPAIGN (SO FAR):  The level 
of campaign-related violence this election cycle has 
fallen markedly compared to that recorded in the past. 
(Sri Lanka holds parliamentary elections on April 2.) 
Thus far, for example, there have been three killings 
linked to the current campaign whereas at a similar 
point in the 2001 parliamentary election campaign there 
were roughly 20 killings.  Of the three killings, two of 
them have been linked to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil 
Eelam (LTTE) and the other was apparently related to 
violence between Muslim parties (see Reftels).  All 
three of the killings occurred in the Eastern Province. 
At this point, unless there is a sudden spike in the 
violence, it seems unlikely that the number of campaign- 
related killings this time around will approach that of 
previous campaigns.  (There were over 50 killings during 
the 2001 parliamentary election campaign, roughly 25 in 
the 2000 parliamentary election campaign, and roughly 50 
during the 1999 presidential election campaign.) 
 
3.  (SBU) Although the amount of killings has gone down 
sharply, there have still been many violent incidents 
related to the campaign.  According to PAFFREL, a local 
election monitoring group, there have been 156 incidents 
of violence so far in the race.  (PAFFREL stands for 
"People's Alliance for Free and Fair Elections.")  The 
Center for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), another 
NGO, reports that there have been over 800 cases of 
violence.  (CMEV uses a substantially more flexible 
method of calculating violence compared with PAFFREL. 
FYI:  As they have in past campaigns, both CMEV and 
PAFFREL are receiving funding assistance from the USG.) 
Based on the PAFFREL and CMEV figures, the incidents 
appear relatively evenly spread among all of the 
parties, with each being accused of instigating a share 
of the violence.  Overall, the number of violent 
incidents during this campaign is down compared to 2001, 
too.  In 2001, at an equivalent stage in the campaign, 
for example, CMEV said there had been over 1,700 violent 
incidents. 
 
4.  (C) REASONS FOR DROP-OFF UNCLEAR:  The precise 
reasons for the sharp drop-off in violence are unclear. 
Going into the current campaign, most observers thought 
it would be a very violent affair due to the deep 
cohabitation tensions between President Kumaratunga and 
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, but that has not been the 
case, thus far.  The following reasons have been cited 
to explain the situation: 
 
-- As reviewed in Reftels, the Elections Commission (EC) 
has taken an activist approach during this campaign. 
The EC has required the police to enforce rules banning 
election paraphernalia such as posters and banners, etc. 
Most observers believe that the EC's actions have helped 
lower the temperature of the campaign and thus helped 
reduce violence. 
 
-- The police have been out and about enforcing election 
rules and arresting those accused of violence.  In 
addition, there were not many police "transfers" made 
just before the campaign.  (In past campaigns, police 
who were favorable to the government in power were sent 
to places seen as sensitive for the election.  In these 
positions, the transferred officers often favored the 
governing party over the opposition in local disputes, 
thus contributing to the general lawlessness.) 
 
-- Local and international observers have been quite 
active.  PAFFREL and CMEV, for example, have wide 
networks of informants and they actively report evidence 
of violence to the police.  In the meantime, the 
European Union, the Commonwealth, and Japan, etc., have 
sent in large teams of observers that are fanning out 
across the country.  The increased presence of local and 
international observers seems to be having an impact on 
the violence. 
 
-- Another theory that has been advanced as to the 
decline in the violence is that the main parties are 
evenly balanced in terms of controlling levers of power 
during this campaign cycle.  In the campaigns of 1999, 
2000, and 2001, for example, the then-People's Alliance 
(PA) government was in total control.  This time around, 
with cohabitation between a PA president and a United 
National Party prime minister, each side has influence 
in the government, which prevents either side from 
taking full advantage of the other. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  Sri Lanka is not out of the woods just 
yet.  There is over a week to go in the campaign and 
violence could still surge in the next several days and 
on election day itself.  (As has been the case in the 
past, the GSL is expected to enforce a curfew the night 
of the election and perhaps on subsequent nights 
depending on the situation.)  This is especially true 
because the race seems competitive among all of the 
major parties at this stage.  Moreover, based on past 
patterns, post-election violence could be a problem as 
thugs affiliated with the winning side attack the losing 
side.  All that said, as of this point, Sri Lanka 
appears to have cleaned up its act to a large extent 
compared to the all-out bloody nature of past campaigns. 
END COMMENT. 
 
6.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD