US embassy cable - 04ANKARA1710

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001710 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKISH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: POLLSTERS SEE HUGE 
VICTORY FOR RULING AKP 
 
Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman. Reason: 1.4 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: A group of pollsters and political 
scientists predicted to Ambassador March 18 that the ruling 
AKP will win between 45-55 percent of the vote in March 28 
municipal elections.  AKP's success will create high public 
expectations, which the party may have trouble meeting. 
Meanwhile, AKP's opponents -- including CHP -- are likely to 
fare poorly.  End Summary. 
 
 
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Sweeping AKP Victory... 
----------------------- 
 
 
2. (SBU) On March 18 Ambassador hosted a group of public 
opinion polling experts and political scientists from Ankara 
and Istanbul to discuss March 28 municipal elections.  The 
consensus among the experts is that the ruling Justice and 
Development Party (AKP) will receive between 45-55 percent of 
the total vote.  If it achieves that level of support, AKP 
will be one of only a handful of sitting government parties 
in modern Turkish history that have received a higher 
percentage of votes in municipal elections, according to the 
pollsters.  The polling experts were united in predicting AKP 
victories in Istanbul and Ankara, among others.  Those who 
discussed Izmir -- traditionally a bastion of the center-left 
-- think that the race is extremely close.  They also noted 
that an important yardstick for AKP will be how many seats 
the party wins in municipal assemblies across Turkey but 
offered no firm prediction as to the party's possible 
performance. 
 
 
3. (C) On the evening of the 18th, Tarhan Erdem, prominent 
columnist for the daily Radikal and owner of the polling firm 
A&G Research Firm, released the results of his own surveys in 
Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir on the prominent news channel 
NTV.  His findings largely echo that of the other pollsters: 
AKP will receive 58 percent in Istanbul and 68 percent in 
Ankara.  Erdem's data, however, show that opposition CHP has 
a commanding lead in Izmir -- 49 percent to AKP's 33 percent. 
 We have heard from one prominent pollster that the Turkish 
military commissions Erdem's firm to conduct its polling, a 
practice our contacts have acknowledged has been going on for 
years. 
 
 
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...Could Lead to Problems Down the Road 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (SBU) The pollsters and political scientists agreed that a 
sweeping victory will present several difficulties for AKP. 
Chief among them will be increased public expectations and 
the huge demand for local service the populace will place on 
newly elected mayors.  Professor Ali Carkoglu of Sabanci 
University pointed out that statistically, it is inevitable 
that AKP has chosen some less than ideal candidates for 
Turkey's 3,200 or so mayoralties, where family influence and 
parochial interests often influence how parties choose 
candidates.  Carkoglu also noted that an overwhelming victory 
for AKP could spawn splits within the party, citing a 
government led by former President and P.M. Suleyman Demirel 
in the early 1970s that fell apart after huge electoral 
gains. 
 
 
----------------------- 
Opposition Gone Missing 
----------------------- 
 
 
5. (SBU) The group of political observers were united in 
predicting a poor showing for the main opposition Republican 
People's Party (CHP).  They said that CHP has been 
consistently polling between 11-13 percent over the last 
several months.  Carkoglu and Ozer Sencar, director of the 
public opinion firm Pollmark, separately noted, however, that 
CHP has received a slight boost in the last two weeks. 
During that time, party leader Deniz Baykal and P.M. Erdogan 
have exchanged public verbal barbs, which has energized some 
of the otherwise hopeless CHP base.  Carkoglu and Sencar 
asserted that, as a result, CHP may receive 16-18 percent of 
the overall vote. 
 
 
6. (SBU) Sencar claimed that CHP's biggest problem is 
relating to the Turkish public, whose voting behavior is 
changing in ways CHP cannot or will not take into account. 
Sencar contended that the Turkish electorate is no longer 
beholden to the idea of "Father State" (Devlet Baba) as a 
panacea, nor does it merely support whichever party professes 
to protect the "Sacred State" (Kutsal Devlet).  Voters are 
more independent-minded, Sencar said, which CHP has not fully 
digested. 
 
 
7. (SBU) The experts did not foresee any significant gains by 
any other opposition party.  They predict: 1) the alliance 
between Kurdish DEHAP and the left-of-center 
Social-democratic People's party (SHP) will receive 5-9 
percent; 2) the True Path Party (DYP) under the stewardship 
of Mehmet Agar will receive around 9 percent; and 3) 
xenophobic Genc Party (GP) will win only 2-5 percent. 
 
 
8. (C) Many of our political contacts -- both inside and 
outside AKP -- over the last several weeks have told us that 
AKP could face severe internal strains if it does as well as 
the polls are predicting.  Most recently, in a private March 
19 meeting, AKP Ankara provincial chief and member of the 
party's executive board Nurettin Akman expressed sincere 
dismay that there is no strong political opposition to his 
own party.  "We need a strong, constructive opposition to 
keep us on course," he said.  He added candidly that many in 
the party fear that they may make a misstep or "miss 
something important" after March 28. 
 
 
------------ 
Voter Trends 
------------ 
 
 
9. (SBU) The lack of a viable political opposition may 
negatively affect voter turnout on March 28, according to the 
polling experts.  Professor Yilmaz Esmer of Bogazici 
University asserted that Turks are more likely to stay home 
from the polls this year than ever.  Esmer noted that there 
may only be a 60-percent turnout.  As a result, although AKP 
may win 50 percent of the vote, this will be a much smaller 
proportion of the possible vote.  The low turnout, therefore, 
will strengthen the already prevalent view among AKP 
opponents that there is a democratic deficit in Turkey. 
Currently, AKP opponents argue that the party has a 
disproportionate number of seats in Parliament: two-thirds 
even though it received only 34 percent of the vote in Nov. 
2002. 
 
 
10. (SBU) The pollsters and political scientists also agreed 
that foreign policy issues are not important in local 
elections.  Cyprus, for example, will not be a factor, they 
claimed. 
EDELMAN