US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO503

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000503 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:     DECL: 03-22-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, PINR, SOCI, CE, Elections, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka:  Radical JVP party ramps up 
campaign in south and seems to be gaining strength 
 
Refs:  Colombo 490, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Ahead of Sri Lanka's April 2 
parliamentary election, the radical JVP party is running 
hard in Sri Lanka's south.  The party appears to be 
garnering strength, though some of its support may be 
siphoned away by a small party running an all-Buddhist 
monk slate of candidates.  In a sign of their increasing 
confidence, JVP leaders are reportedly discussing what 
ministries they will take over if their alliance with 
the President's party wins the election.  While much 
could still happen, it appears that the JVP will be able 
to solidify further its position as one of Sri Lanka's 
leading political parties on April 2.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) JVP RUNNING HARD:  As Sri Lanka's April 2 
parliamentary election draws nearer, the radical Janatha 
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party is running a very active 
campaign in the south of the country.  Most of the JVP's 
campaign rallies and related activities are being 
conducted at the village-level in Sri Lanka's "Sinhalese 
Buddhist belt" in the deep south, where the JVP has 
traditionally garnered a high degree of support.  From 
anecdotal reports that Mission is picking up, the JVP's 
rallies are well-attended and the party is gaining 
volunteers for its campaign efforts.  (As the JVP is 
Marxist by philosophy, the rallies are noticeable for 
their copious use of red flags and bunting.)  Mission 
has also heard that the JVP rallies are more lively and 
often larger than those held by its political ally, the 
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and by the United 
National Party (UNP).  (The SLFP and the JVP are the 
core elements in an electoral alliance called the United 
People's Freedom Alliance, "UPFA."  Despite their 
alliance, the two parties are essentially running 
separate campaigns throughout the country.  The two 
parties have only participated in several large joint 
rallies, for example.)  According to contacts in the 
party, the JVP plans to ramp up its rallies in the last 
days of the campaign and to launch a large-scale "get 
out the vote" effort on election day. 
 
3.  (C) PARTY SEEMS TO BE GAINING STRENGTH:  An exact 
barometric reading of how the JVP is faring is hard to 
come by.  The few polls about the parliamentary race 
that have come out do not delineate in a clear "horse 
race"-type style how the separate parties are doing 
head-to-head (see Reftels).  That said, the polls do 
indicate that the UPFA alliance is doing very well among 
members of the majority Sinhalese ethnic group.  The 
UPFA is probably doing so well among Sinhalese in large 
part because of the JVP's strength with that community. 
Taranjit Sandhu, the Indian High Commission polcouns, 
for example, told polchief March 18 that he thought the 
JVP was "holding up its side of the bargain for the UPFA 
by gaining strong support from villagers in Sinhalese 
Buddhist areas." 
 
4.  (C) With respect to predictions of how it will all 
turn out on April 2, observers generally expect that the 
JVP will substantially improve on its surprisingly 
strong performance in the December 2001 parliamentary 
election when it won over 9 percent of the vote and took 
16 seats in Parliament.  Various numbers have been 
bandied about, but most observers believe that the party 
will probably win over 20 seats in Parliament on 
April 2.  This would be quite an impressive performance 
by a party that had only one seat in Parliament as 
recently as 2000. 
 
5.  (C) A CHALLENGE FROM ALL-MONK SLATE:  Despite the 
predictions of possible gains by the JVP, contacts have 
identified one potential fly in the ointment for the 
party:  the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) party.  The JHU 
is a small party that -- in an unprecedented move in Sri 
Lankan politics -- is running an all-Buddhist monk slate 
of candidates.  Like the JVP, the JHU is harshly 
skeptical of the peace process with the Tamil Tigers and 
leans decidedly leftist on economic issues.  In light of 
these similarities, many observers believe that the JHU 
may siphon away a chunk of those who would have voted 
for the JVP. 
 
6.  (SBU) MINISTERIAL POSITIONS?:  At this point, with 
the JVP riding high, there is increasing discussion in 
the press that the party will take over several 
ministries if the UPFA wins the election.  (It has never 
been officially disclosed, but the SLFP and JVP are 
believed to have worked out a deal that would allow the 
JVP to assume several ministerial positions if the UPFA 
wins.)  One March 21 press report, for example, stated 
that Wimal Weerawansa, a JVP MP and spokesman, has been 
asserting at public rallies in the south that the JVP 
will -- if the UPFA wins -- take over the ministries of: 
(1) Agriculture, Lands, and Irrigation; (2) Fisheries 
and Aquatic Resources; (3) Rural Development; and (4) 
Culture and National Heritage.  Weerawansa has also 
announced he would become the Culture and National 
Heritage Minister in a possible UPFA government.  In a 
further display of confidence by the JVP, Pemasiri 
Manage, a JVP candidate from Matara District in the 
south, has reportedly been claiming in stump speeches 
that he will be the next deputy minister of fisheries. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  Come April 2, it appears that the JVP 
will be able to solidify further its position as one of 
Sri Lanka's leading political parties.  This would be 
quite an accomplishment for a party that is best known 
for leading two failed insurgencies against the GSL, and 
was given up for dead after the complete failure of the 
last of these in 1989.  Despite the currently positive 
signs for the JVP, however, much could still happen in 
the last days of the campaign.  The UNP, for example, is 
pouring a lot of money into the campaign and could make 
gains.  In addition, the JVP made some mistakes in the 
days leading up to the last parliamentary election in 
2001, which made the party seem very strident to the 
public, and it lost support.  If such mistakes are 
replicated, the JVP's current momentum could quickly 
vanish. 
 
8.  (C) The JVP effort stirs up unpleasant memories for 
older Sri Lankans.  Several newspapers have run 
historical articles lately recapping the brutality of 
the JVP before it turned to the political forum.  One 
article, for example, included a long list of school 
principals murdered by the JVP in the late 1980s. 
During a courtesy call by SA DAS Patterson March 22, a 
senior Commerce Ministry official unexpectedly opened 
the conversation with an agitated account of how he had 
been on a JVP hit list many years ago and how he found 
it unbelievable that President Kumaratunga could be so 
callous as to ally herself with the movement that 
probably murdered her husband.  (Vijaya Kumaratunga was 
assassinated in 1988.  It is not clear who did it, but 
there is much speculation that the JVP was involved.) 
Feelings on the JVP clearly run deep.  END COMMENT. 
 
9.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD