US embassy cable - 01KINSHASA703

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 000703 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, CG 
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT DISMISSED:  STEP ONE IN CABINET 
RESHUFFLE 
 
 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR WILLIAM LACY SWING FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B)(D) 
 
 
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1. (C) "CURRENT AFFAIRS ONLY" 
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WE UNDERSTAND THAT ON FEBRUARY 7 PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA 
FORMALLY NOTIFIED ALL MEMBERS OF THE CABINET THAT THEY ARE 
DISMISSED AS FAR AS THEIR PRESENT MANDATE IS CONCERNED AND 
ARE, HENCEFORTH, TO ATTEND ONLY TO "CURRENT AFFAIRS."  (THIS 
MEANS, AT A MINIMUM, NO NEW ACTIVITIES OR INITIATIVES UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE OR AS HE DIRECTS.) 
 
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2. (C) CLEARING THE WAY FOR CHANGE 
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IT IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED HERE THAT THIS FORMAL NOTICE TO THE 
MEMBERS OF THE LAST GOVERNMENT APPOINTED BY HIS FATHER, THE 
LATE PRESIDENT LAURENT-DESIRE KABILA, CLEARS THE WAY FOR 
PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA TO BEGIN CONSULTATIONS WHICH WILL 
LEAD TO A RESHUFFLED -- PROBABLY LARGELY NEW -- CABINET.  WE 
JUDGE, HOWEVER, THAT THE NEW TEAM IS NOT LIKELY TO BE 
ANNOUNCED OFFICIALLY UNTIL THE END OF THE THIRTY-DAY PERIOD 
OF PUBLIC MOURNING, THAT IS, AROUND FEBRUARY 18. 
 
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3. (C) ...AND CLEANING HOUSE 
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AT ANY RATE, JOSEPH KABILA CAN USEFULLY USE A BIT MORE TIME 
AS HE SEEKS TO HIVE OFF SOME OF THE DEADWOOD IN THE CURRENT 
CABINET.  A GOODLY NUMBER OF THESE ARE NON-PERFORMERS AND 
OTHERS DOWNRIGHT OBSTRUCTIONISTS TO PROGRESS ON THE PEACE 
PROCESS AND THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS WHICH YOUNG 
KABILA HAS STATED HIS INTENTION TO CARRY OUT. 
 
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4. (C) A PRIME MINISTER LIKELY 
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MORE THAN AT ANY TIME SINCE THE LATE LAURENT-DESIRE KABILA 
ARRIVED IN KINSHASA IN 1997, THERE APPEARS TO BE A 
BETTER-THAN-FIFTY PERCENT CHANCE THAT A PRIME MINISTER WILL 
BE APPOINTED.  WHILE LAURENT-DESIRE KABILA WAS NEVER ABLE TO 
BRING HIMSELF TO SHARE POWER AND THE LIMELIGHT WITH A PRIME 
MINISTER, JOSEPH KABILA HAS SO FAR DEMONSTRATED THAT HE IS 
BETTER ORGANIZED AND LESS DEFENSIVE.  HE IS PROBABLY ALSO 
KEENLY AWARE OF THE ENORMITY OF HIS TASK AND SENSES THAT IT 
WOULD BE IN HIS AND THE CONGO'S INTEREST FOR HIM TO HAVE 
SOMEONE AT HIS SIDE WHO COULD MANAGE THE DAY-TO-DAY AFFAIRS 
OF GOVERNMENT WHILE HE ENGAGES IN NEGOTIATIONS ON THE LARGER 
ISSUES OF PEACE AND RECONCILIATION. 
 
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5. (C) NO SHORTAGE OF PM CANDIDATES 
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THERE IS, IN THIS REGARD, WILD SPECULATION HERE ABOUT WHO THE 
PRIME MINISTER MIGHT BE.  THE NAMES MENTIONED MOST FREQUENTLY 
INCLUDE:  PLANNING MINISTER DENIS KALUME (WHO TOOK CHARGE OF 
THE KABILA FUNERAL ARRANGEMENTS); MOBUTU'S LAST PRIME 
MINISTER GERARD LIKULIA BOLONGO; AND PROFESSOR Z'AHIDI NGOMA, 
HEAD OF A SMALL POLITICAL PARTY AND FORMER REBEL RCD 
OFFICIAL.  LESS OFTEN MENTIONED -- AND WHOSE APPOINTMENT 
WOULD BE FEARED BY MANY -- IS JUSTICE MINISTER MWENZE 
KONGOLO.  (OTHERS OF THE OLD GUARD AROUND LAURENT-DESIRE 
KABILA SUCH AS INTERIOR MINISTER KAKUDJI AND FORMER FOREIGN 
MINISTER YERODIA ARE BELIEVED TO BE ON THEIR WAY OUT, OR AT 
LEAST TO POSITIONS OF MUCH LESS IMPORT.)  CURRENT FOREIGN 
MINISTER OKITUNDU'S NAME CAME UP INITIALLY IN THE PM RACE, 
BUT HE MAY NOT YET BE CONSIDERED TO HAVE QUITE THE HEFT 
REQUIRED AND, IN ANY CASE, HAS ALREADY MADE  HIMSELF TOO 
VALUABLE IN HIS SHORT TIME AS FOREIGN MINISTER TO BE RELEASED 
FOR OTHER DUTIES. 
 
SWING