US embassy cable - 01HARARE662

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000662 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 02/05/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  MUGABE PROBABLY WILL WIN ILLEGITIMATE ELECTION IN 
2002 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00662  01 OF 02  071600Z 
REF:  HARARE 644 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE RESEARCH FELLOW BRIAN 
RAFTOPOULOS TOLD CHARGE AND POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ON 
FEBRUARY 1 THAT, IN PREPARATION FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION, ZANU-PF WILL EMPLOY INCREASED VIOLENCE AGAINST 
THE OPPOSITION PARTY MOVEMENT FOR DQOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC), 
INDEPENDENT MEDIA, AND JUDICIARY, AND WILL WORK TO 
NEUTRALIZE THE LABOR MOVEMENT AS A KEY SOURCE OF SUPPORT 
AND ORGANIZATIONAL CAPACITY FOR THE MDC.  PRESIDENT MUGABE, 
RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES, WILL SECURE VICTORY IN 2002 BY ANY 
MEANS NECESSARY, AND THE MDC MUST DECIDE NOW HOW IT WILL 
RESPOND TO MUGABE'S WINNING AN ILLEGITIMATE ELECTION.  FOR 
ITS PART, THE MDC SHOULD FOCUS ON GETTING ITS SUPPORTERS 
REGISTERED, ENSURING AN ACCURATE VOTERS' ROLL, AND 
MOBILIZING RURAL VOTERS, AS WELL AS CULTIVATING SUPPORT 
WITHIN THE ARMY AND POLICE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION 
CHIEF AND LABOFF, MET ON FEBRUARY 1 WITH BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, 
RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE'S INSTITUTE 
OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AND AN ASTUTE OBSERVER OF ZIMBABWE'S 
POLITICAL SCENE. 
 
ZANU-PF'S STRATEGY FOR 2002 
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--------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) ACCORDING TO RAFTOPOULOS, ZANU-PF WILL EMPLOY A 
MULTI-FACETED STRATEGY IN PREPARATION FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION IN 2002.  FIRST, HE SAID, THE MID-JANUARY 
PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION IN BIKITA CONFIRMED THE RULING 
PARTY'S DETERMINATION TO USE A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF 
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION TO COW OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS AND 
REVEALED ITS INTENTION TO USE TRADITIONAL LEADERS TO 
MOBILIZE THE PARTY'S SUPPORT BASE.  THE PARTY, HOWEVER, 
DOES NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY TO DEPLOY ITS SHOCK TROOPS OF 
WAR VETERANS AND RENT-A-THUGS NATIONWIDE, AND WILL LIKELY 
TARGET ITS CAMPAIGN MOST INTENSELY IN THE PROVINCES OF 
MASHONALAND AND MASVINGO. 
 
4.  (C) THE RESEARCH FELLOW SAID HE FULLY EXPECTS ZANU-PF 
TO CONTINUE TO INTIMIDATE THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND TO 
CREATE AS DIFFICULT AN OPERATING ENVIRONMENT FOR THEM AS 
POSSIBLE, LIKELY INVOLVING BOTH PHYSICAL AND FINANCIAL 
HARASSMENT.  HE POINTED TO THE JANUARY 28 BOMBING OF THE 
PRINTING PLANT OF THE INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS" AS THE 
OPENING SHOT IN THIS COMPONENT OF THE CAMPAIGN.  IN 
ADDITION, RAFTOPOULOS PREDICTED THAT ZANU-PF WOULD CONTINUE 
TO PRESSURE THE CURRENT JUSTICES OF THE SUPREME COURT INTO 
LEAVING SO THAT THEY CAN BE REPLACED WITH MORE SYMPATHETIC 
JURISTS.  (COMMENT: EMBOFFS SPOKE WITH RAFTOPOULOS THE DAY 
BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF CHIEF JUSTICE GUBBAY'S FORCED 
RESIGNATION, REPORTED REFTEL.  END COMMENT.) 
 
5.  (C) RAFTOPOULOS SAID HE EXPECTS ZANU-PF WILL SHORTLY 
TURN UP THE HEAT ON THE MDC'S LEADERSHIP.  THE POLICE, HE 
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NOTED, CONTINUE TO HOLD OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PROSECUTING 
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR HIS REMARKS IN OCTOBER 
PREDICTING THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD BE REMOVED FROM 
OFFICE VIOLENTLY BY AN ANGRY, FRUSTRATED POPULATION IF HE 
DOES NOT DEPART OF HIS OWN ACCORD.  RAFTOPOULOS ANTICIPATED 
THAT ZANU-PF LIKELY WOULD ALSO "GO AFTER" OTHER KEY 
OPPOSITION OFFICIALS, INCLUDING YOUTH LEADERS.  (NOTE: 
RAFTOPOULOS'S PREDICTION PROVED PROPHETIC, AS THREE SENIOR 
MDC LEADERS, INCLUDING THE OPPOSITION PARTY'S NATIONAL 
YOUTH DIRECTOR, WERE ARRESTED AND OR/BEATEN FOUR DAYS 
LATER, ON FEBRUARY 5.  END NOTE.)  IN ADDITION, THE RULING 
PARTY IS ACTIVELY SEEKING TO NEUTRALIZE THE LABOR MOVEMENT 
AS A SOURCE OF SUPPORT AND ORGANIZATIONAL CAPACITY FOR THE 
MDC (DETAILS OF THE CONVERSATION RELATED TO THE LABOR 
MOVEMENT ARE REPORTED SEPTEL). 
 
6.  (C) ASKED HIS PREDICTION OF THE LIKELIEST SCENARIO FOR 
THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, RAFTOPOULOS STATED WITHOUT 
HESITATION THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD WIN AN ILLEGITIMATE 
ELECTION.  CLARIFYING, RAFTOPOULOS SAID THE PRESIDENT DOES 
NOT HAVE THE SUPPORT TO WIN A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, SO 
WILL ACHIEVE VICTORY "BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY."  IN THE 
MEANTIME, IF THE HIGH COURT ORDERS THE HOLDING OF BY- 
ELECTIONS IN RESPONSE TO PENDING LEGAL CHALLENGES BY THE 
MDC TO THE RESULTS IN 37 CONSTITUENCIES IN LAST JUNE'S 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1427 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W 
                  ------------------C249B8  071601Z /38 
P 071559Z FEB 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8186 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000662 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 02/05/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  MUGABE PROBABLY WILL WIN ILLEGITIMATE ELECTION IN 
2002 
 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  00662  02 OF 02  071601Z 
ELECTION, MUGABE WILL LIKELY WORK TO MARGINALIZE PARLIAMENT 
AND GOVERN PRINCIPALLY BY DECREE. 
 
MDC'S STRATEGY FOR 2002 
----------------------- 
 
7.  (C) ZANU-PF'S TACTICS OF INTIMIDATION AND HARASSMENT, 
RAFTOPOULOS CONTENDED, MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR THE 
MDC TO DEVELOP SLOWLY AND PATIENTLY INTO A GENUINE, MATURE, 
AND EFFECTIVE OPPOSITION PARTY.   THE MDC DOES NOT HAVE THE 
RESOURCES EITHER TO CONFRONT HEAD-ON STATE-SPONSORED 
VIOLENCE OR TO CONTEST EFFECTIVELY NUMEROUS BY-ELECTIONS. 
THE MDC, RAFTOPOULOS SUGGESTED, SHOULD THUS FOCUS ITS 
CAMPAIGN STRATEGY ON SEVERAL KEY ISSUES.  FIRST AND 
FOREMOST, IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT THE PARTY PAY CLOSE 
ATTENTION TO ELECTION MECHANICS, PARTICULARLY GETTING ITS 
SUPPORTERS REGISTERED AND ENSURING THAT THE VOTERS ROLL IS 
COMPILED IN A TRANSPARENT AND ACCURATE MANNER.  THE MDC 
MUST ALSO WORK HARD TO MOBILIZE OLDER RURAL VOTERS, WHO 
HISTORICALLY HAVE VOTED OVERWHELMINGLY FOR ZANU-PF. 
 
8.  (C) RAFTOPOULOS SAID HE DID NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR 
THE ARMY'S POSITION ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, BUT EMPHASIZED 
THAT THE MDC SHOULD BE WORKING TO NURTURE ALTERNATIVE 
VOICES WITHIN THE MILITARY AND POLICE.  THE OPPOSITION 
PARTY, RAFTOPOULOS CONTINUED, MUST ALSO ACCEPT THAT MUGABE 
WILL MAKE GOOD ON HIS VOW NEVER TO PERMIT THE MDC TO RULE 
ZIMBABWE, AND STRATEGIZE NOW HOW IT WILL RESPOND IF THE 
PRESIDENT STEALS THE 2002 ELECTION. 
 
DROC 
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9.  (C) RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES THAT ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS, UP 
TO AND INCLUDING PRESIDENT MUGABE, WERE RELIEVED BY LAURENT 
KABILA'S DEATH, AS THE ASSASSINATED CONGOLESE PRESIDENT HAD 
BECOME A PROBLEM FOR EVERYONE, INCLUDING HIS SADC ALLIES, 
AND HAD POSED THE PRIMARY OBSTACLE TO PEACE.  HE SURMISED 
THAT GOZ OFFICIALS CONSIDERED THE ASSASSINATION AN IDEAL 
OPPORTUNITY TO WITHDRAW ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS AND WOULD NOW 
PRESS AGGRESSIVELY FOR THE QUICK DEPLOYMENT OF THE 
REMAINDER OF MONUC FORCES.  HE AGREED THAT ZIMBABWE SEEMS 
TO HAVE ABDICATED THE UPPER HAND IN THE DRC TO THE 
ANGOLANS.  ONE OF THE PRIMARY DOMESTIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE 
WAR IN DRC IS INCREASING REPRESSION HERE, AS THE GOZ SEEKS 
TO DENY THE MDC THE ABILITY TO CAPITALIZE ON WIDESPREAD 
RESENTMENT AMONG ZIMBABWEANS OF THEIR GOVERNMENT'S 
ENTANGLEMENT IN THIS COMPLICATED CONFLICT. 
 
COMMENT 
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10.  (C) RAFTOPOULOS IS ONE OF ZIMBABWE'S BEST THINKERS AND 
HAS AN UNCANNY KNACK FOR PREDICTING EVENTS THAT COME TO 
PASS.  BECAUSE HE IS NOT IDENTIFIED WITH ANY POLITICAL 
PARTY AND IS ABLE TO STEP BACK FROM THE FRAY, WE CONSULT 
HIM TO FILL LACUNAE IN OUR CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ON 
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN ZIMBABWE.  AT THIS WRITING, WE 
AGREE WITH HIS ASSESSMENT THAT MUGABE COULD WELL WIN IN 
2002, AMASSING THE NECESSARY MAJORITY OF VOTES IN HIS 
TRADITIONAL BEDROCK OF SUPPORT, THE MASHONALAND-MASVINGO 
AXIS, AND IN INTIMIDATING LARGE NUMBERS OF OPPOSITION 
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SUPPORTERS IN THE URBAN AREAS, THE MDC'S STRONGHOLD, INTO 
STAYING HOME ON ELECTION DAY.  BARRING SOME EXTERNAL SHOCK 
TO THE SYSTEM AND ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, THIS LOOKS 
LIKE A DEPRESSINGLY WINNING STRATEGY FROM OUR VANTAGE 
POINT.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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