US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV1707

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001707 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CAIRO ALSO FOR A/S BURNS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2014 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, IS, XF, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI EXTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: UN ENVOY PREVIEWS ARAFAT "ASCENSION" PROPOSAL 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
1. (C) Summary:  UN Special Coordinator Terje Larsen reviewed 
for the Ambassador his recent exchanges with GOI, PA, 
Egyptian, and Jordanian officials on PM Sharon's 
disengagement plan, and laid out an idea for enticing 
Arafat's cooperation in combating terrorism by offering him 
an "elevated," ceremonial position, while devolving genuine 
power to the prime minister.  Citing a "radical change" in 
the discourse about the Israeli-Palestinian situation, Larsen 
said, "Everyone is talking about how to get rid of Arafat." 
End Summary. 
 
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A Higher Calling for Arafat? 
---------------------------- 
 
2. (C) In a March 19 meeting, Larsen previewed for the 
Ambassador a proposal for Arafat's "ascension" that Larsen 
will make at the upcoming Cairo meeting of Quartet envoys. 
Although he pegged the proposal's chances of success at "much 
less than 50 percent," he said he had not been able to come 
up with a better alternative.  Larsen explained that the 
proposal is based on the assumption that, if Arafat feels 
excluded from the process by which Israel unilaterally 
disengages from Palestinian territories, and marginalized by 
the international community's "day after" efforts -- 
including a possible UNSCR in which Arafat would not figure 
-- it is certain that he will play a spoiler role, sowing 
further chaos.  Based on conversations Larsen has had with a 
variety of European, Palestinian, and other Arab players (see 
below for further details), the UN envoy believes that there 
will be a "critical mass" to deliver an ultimatum to the PA 
Chairman, offering him international legitimacy for a genuine 
devolution of power -- "or else...."  Larsen posited that the 
carrot of being welcomed worldwide as a rehabilitated leader 
would be enough to entice the PA Chairman to ascend to a 
purely ceremonial position, ceding all of his power to the 
prime minister. 
 
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Larsen Hears an Emerging Consensus 
---------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) In making his case, Larsen cited numerous 
conversations he has had with key players in recent weeks. 
 
-- Larsen was animated about a "radical change" he perceives 
in the discourse about the Israeli-Palestinian situation. 
"Everyone," he said, "is talking about how to get rid of 
Arafat."  For example, German Foreign Minister Fischer had 
opened his last conversation with Larsen by asking," How can 
we get rid of (Arafat)?"  Jordanian Foreign Minister Muasher, 
whom he had recently met in Amman, asked rhetorically, "What 
can we do about the Chairman?" 
 
-- Larsen said the British were "on board" with his proposal, 
while the French were "kind of on board." 
 
-- In Cairo this past week, Larsen had met with a variety of 
Egyptian leaders, including FM Maher, whom he described as 
"open-minded."  Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, 
reportedly speaking about the broader issue of Israeli 
disengagement, said, "If it's clean, we'd welcome it."  Omar 
Sulayman, who had just returned from meeting with Arafat in 
Ramallah, characterized the tough message he had delivered to 
the Chairman:  "Either take action against terror, or you 
will have to hand over all of your powers to Abu Ala'a." 
Sulayman reportedly took Larsen's point that Arafat must face 
explicit sanctions if he fails to deliver, but Larsen was not 
convinced that the "tough message" Sulayman delivered had 
gone that far. 
 
-- Larsen had also recently met with Abu Mazen, and a number 
of his former ministers, who are currently staying at a villa 
in Amman.  Abu Mazen reportedly responded positively to 
Larsen's proposal but suggested amending it to add a new 
position of vice president -- a position he envisioned 
himself as filling -- to act as a "buffer" between Arafat and 
the prime minister. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Although the Message is Muddied By Sycophants 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Meanwhile, Larsen said, Arafat advisors, such as Nabil 
Abu Rudeineh, Nabil Sha'ath, and Sa'eb Erakat, are not 
telling the Chairman the truth about how negatively he is 
perceived by the international community.  Indeed, Abu 
Rudeineh has been encouraging Arafat to "hang in there."  As 
a result, Arafat believes that, "if Qadhafi can be 
rehabilitated, so can he."  Citing second-hand information, 
Larsen lamented that even Mohammed Dahlan, who "talks tough" 
about Arafat, tends to lose his resolve in the presence of 
the Chairman.  Indeed, according to an account from the 
Palestinian Minister of Agriculture, who was in the recent 
meeting between Dahlan and Arafat, Dahlan had tried, at the 
beginning of the meeting to kiss Arafat's hand.  Arafat 
reportedly pulled back his hand in that instance, but Dahlan 
succeeded in kissing it at two later points in the meeting. 
 
5. (C) Noting that he would be the last person to argue 
against a process that would lead to an empowered prime 
minister, the Ambassador nonetheless expressed skepticism 
that Larsen's proposal would work.  Pointing out that Arafat 
can still "buy" loyalty on the street, and that he still has 
at his command people who will perpetrate violence and 
terror, he doubted that Arafat would give up those assets 
without a fight.  Moreover, it is not clear who is willing to 
fight Arafat, if/when it comes to that. 
 
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KURTZER