US embassy cable - 01HARARE661

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ILAB FOR RSHEPHARD 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 02/07/11 
TAGS: ELAB, PGOV, PHUM, PINR 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR 
MDC 
 
REFS: A. HARARE 612, B. HARARE 573, C. 00 HARARE 3680 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B/D). 
 
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WHAT PRICE A PRO-ZANU-PF UNION LEADERSHIP? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
1. (C) ON FEBRUARY 1, CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY POLOFF AND 
LABOFF, MET WITH BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS (PROTECT), A RESEARCH 
FELLOW IN THE INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AT THE 
UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, AND AN INSIGHTFUL CONTACT 
REGARDING THE LOCAL POLITICAL SCENE.  RAFTOPOULOS TOLD 
US THAT HE HAS NO DOUBTS THAT ZANU-PF IS TRYING TO BUY 
THE ELECTION OF A MORE FRIENDLY LEADERSHIP AT THE 
ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU), IN ORDER TO 
NEUTRALIZE LABOR AS A RICH SOURCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL 
SUPPORT FOR THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). 
HE HAS HEARD FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE ZANU-PF/GOZ HAS PAID 
THE ARREARAGES OF TEN UNIONS AFFILIATED WITH THE ZCTU, 
WHICH ALLOWS THEM TO PARTICIPATE IN THE UPCOMING 
CONGRESS FEBRUARY 23-25 IN MASVINGO AND GIVES THEM 
VOTING PRIVILEGES.  THE FEBRUARY 1-7 EDITION OF THE 
INDEPENDENT "FINANCIAL GAZETTE" DESCRIBED A ZANU-PF/GOZ 
PLOT TO RIG THE UPCOMING CONGRESS ELECTIONS, INCLUDING 
THE EXISTENCE OF A SLUSH FUND TO BE USED TOWARDS THIS 
END AND CONTROLLED BY THE GOZ CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00661  01 OF 02  071508Z 
ORGANIZATION (CIO). (NOTE: PER REFTELS THE ACTING 
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE ZCTU, ISIDORE ZINDOGA, IS 
 
SIPDIS 
BELIEVED TO BE PRO-ZANU-PF, AND IF ELECTED AS SECRETARY 
GENERAL, WOULD SEEK TO SEVER THE STRONG TIES BETWEEN THE 
ZCTU AND THE MDC.) 
 
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WHY NOT JUST MANHANDLE THE ZCTU? 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) RAFTOPOULOS ALSO BELIEVES THAT THE RULING PARTY 
WILL SEND WAR VETERANS TO DEMONSTRATE OUTSIDE THE 
CONGRESS VENUE IN MASVINGO, BUT THAT THE PARTY WILL NOT TRY 
HEAVY-HANDED INTIMIDATION TACTICS LIKE THOSE USED IN THE 
RECENT PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS.  THE UNION MEMBERSHIP 
OF THE ZCTU WOULD NOT BE INTIMIDATED BY THESE TACTICS, 
HE ADDED, AND THEY WOULD LIKELY BACKFIRE AND LEAD TO THE 
ELECTION OF PRO-MDC LEADERS.  RAFTOPOULOS EXPECTS THAT 
ZANU-PF WILL STEP UP EFFORTS TO BRIBE INDIVIDUAL UNION 
LEADERS AS THE CONGRESS APPROACHES, AS WELL AS RUN 
STORIES IN THE MEDIA ON HOW THE MDC IS TRYING TO CONTROL 
THE ZCTU FOR ITS OWN SELFISH AND NEFARIOUS PURPOSES. 
THE JANUARY 31 EDITION OF THE GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE 
HERALD" RAN A FEATURE STORY ENTITLED "ZCTU: TRADE 
UNIONISM RISKS BEING SACRIFICED ON THE PEDESTAL OF 
POLITICAL GREED."  THE STORY CLAIMED THAT THE TRADE 
UNION MOVEMENT WOULD SUFFER IF ITS MEMBERSHIP ALLOWS IT 
TO BE AFFILIATED WITH THE MDC. 
 
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CONGRESS OUTCOME IS CRITICAL TO THE MDC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00661  01 OF 02  071508Z 
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3. (C) RAFTOPOULOS MADE CLEAR THAT THE MDC'S FUTURE 
SUCCESS AS A POLITICAL PARTY DEPENDS ON CONTINUED 
SUPPORT FROM THE ZCTU.  ANY ATTEMPT AT MASS ACTION BY 
THE MDC REQUIRES THE SUPPORT AND ORGANIZING RESOURCES OF 
THE ZCTU.  SIMILARLY, RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES THAT THE MDC 
WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RUN AN EFFECTIVE NATIONWIDE 
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN 2002 WITHOUT THE ZCTU.  IT IS 
FOR THIS REASON, HE ADDED, THAT ZANU-PF IS MAKING A 
CONCERTED EFFORT TO BREAK THE TIES BETWEEN THE MDC AND 
THE ZCTU. 
 
4. (C) COMMENT: GIVEN THE HISTORY OF ZANU-PF, WE HAVE 
LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE RULING PARTY IS ATTEMPTING TO 
MANIPULATE AND/OR BUY THE ELECTION OF A SYMPATHETIC ZCTU 
LEADERSHIP.  SEPARATING THE MDC FROM ITS TRADE UNION 
BASE IS A CENTRAL ELEMENT OF ZANU-PF'S "URBAN STRATEGY" 
FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.  THE MDC IS TAKING 
THIS CHALLENGE VERY SERIOUSLY, AND IS ORGANIZING ITS OWN 
SUPPORTERS WITHIN THE UNIONS TO COUNTER THE ATTACK.  THE 
OUTCOME OF THIS STRUGGLE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE PRO- 
MDC UNION LEADERS PRESENT A SINGLE SLATE OF CANDIDATES 
FOR THE ZCTU LEADERSHIP, AS WELL AS HOW EFFECTIVE THE 
RULING PARTY IS AT BUYING THE VOTES OF UNION LEADERS. 
END COMMENT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1076 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00661  02 OF 02  071508Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00 
      FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    ITC-01   LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /013W 
                  ------------------C23F51  071508Z /38 
R 071507Z FEB 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8184 
INFO DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ILAB FOR RSHEPHARD 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 02/07/11 
TAGS: ELAB, PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ZI 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00661  02 OF 02  071508Z 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR 
MDC 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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