US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO477

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000477 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  03/18/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, SOCI, CE, Elections, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka:  Latest poll results appear to 
spell trouble for PM's party in upcoming elections 
 
Refs:  Colombo 470, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Two recent polls on the attitudes of 
Sri Lankans ahead of the April 2 parliamentary elections 
seem to indicate that PM Wickremesinghe's UNP government 
is in trouble.  While the polls do not breakdown which 
party Sri Lankans plan to vote for, per se, they do show 
that the UNP government is earning extremely poor marks 
with respect to its handling of the economy, the key 
issue of concern to voters.  It also fares badly on 
corruption.  The UNP's marks regarding the peace process 
are positive, however.  Although there are still two 
weeks to go before the election, our interpretation of 
these results is that the President's SLFP party and its 
JVP allies are ahead in the race at this point.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) RECENT POLLS:  Two recent polls on the 
attitudes of Sri Lankans ahead of the April 2 
parliamentary elections seem to indicate that PM 
Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP) government 
is in trouble.  One of the polls was conducted by the 
Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA), a local think- 
tank, in early March.  (USAID provided funding for this 
poll.  CPA will be publishing more polls ahead of 
election day.)  The other poll was conducted by Org- 
Smart, a division of the AC Nielsen Company, in late 
February.  The methodology for the two polls was roughly 
the same:  each poll contains results from approximately 
two thousand respondents and has roughly the same margin 
of error (plus or minus five percent for the Org-Smart 
poll and plus or minus three percent for the CPA poll). 
The ethnic breakdown of those polled in the two studies 
is also similar, with the majority Sinhalese community 
being over-represented in the sampling.  One difference 
between the polls was that the Org-Smart poll took place 
throughout the country, including in the north and east, 
though its results are methodologically divided between 
those living in the south and those in the north/east. 
The CPA poll was not conducted in the north and east, 
however, where large Tamil populations are present.  The 
polls also do not breakdown which party Sri Lankans plan 
to vote for, per se. 
 
3.  (SBU) BAD NEWS FOR UNP ON ECONOMY:  The most 
striking aspect of the polls was how poorly the UNP 
fared with respect to economic matters.  The Org-Smart 
poll, for example, indicated that 43 percent of people 
in the south felt that the President's United People's 
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) would be better at handling the 
economy.  The UNP was only mentioned as being a better 
manager of the economy by 33 percent.  In the meantime, 
the CPA poll showed that 59 percent of those polled felt 
that their personal economic situation as compared to a 
year ago had deteriorated versus only 17 percent who 
said it had improved.  The CPA poll also showed that 72 
percent of those polled were dissatisfied with the UNP's 
performance in lowering the cost of living and 75 
percent were dissatisfied with the UNP's performance in 
reducing unemployment.  By a factor of 2 to 1, the CPA 
poll also showed that those polled believe that the UPFA 
was better equipped to handle economic issues as 
compared to the UNP. 
 
4.  (SBU) The numbers regarding the economy are 
especially important because it is seen as the top issue 
for the country.  According to the Org-Smart survey, for 
example, over 65 percent of those polled in the south 
rated economic-related issues as being the most 
important, as compared to only 26 percent who rated the 
peace process as the top issue.  In the CPA poll, 62 
percent of those polled said the economy should be the 
new government's top priority compared with 21 percent 
that said the peace process should. 
 
5.  (SBU) Another key area in which the UNP fared very 
poorly was in combating corruption, with the CPA poll 
indicating that 60 percent of those sampled were 
dissatisfied with the UNP's performance in this area 
versus only 27 percent who were satisfied with the UNP's 
performance.  The Org-Smart poll also tended to show 
that those polled in the south believed that the UPFA 
was better at dealing with corruption than the UNP. 
 
6.  (SBU) UNP DOES WELL ON PEACE PROCESS:  Despite its 
poor marks on the handling of the economy and on 
corruption, one area that the UNP scored high on was its 
handling of the peace process.  The CPA poll indicated 
that 62 percent of those polled approved of how the PM's 
party had handled the peace process.  In addition, 51 
percent said they were satisfied with the amount of 
international support the UNP had attracted for its 
peace process initiative.  The Org-Smart data revealed 
similar findings, with 63 percent of respondents from 
the south rating the UNP's ongoing peace efforts with 
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) a success. 
The UNP also garnered a high degree of confidence 
regarding possible future negotiations, with 59 percent 
of those in the south feeling that the UNP would be 
better at dealing with the LTTE as compared with only 22 
percent who said the UPFA. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  Polling is a new and inexact science 
in Sri Lanka and we are not certain about the results of 
the two polls.  That said, the polls -- coupled with 
what we are hearing anecdotally -- do seem to indicate 
that the President's SLFP party and its JVP allies are 
ahead in this race.  After being virtually somnolent, 
the UNP's campaign has been slowly revving up, however, 
and the party could stage a comeback as election day 
draws nearer.  Nonetheless, with opinion apparently 
running strongly negative regarding its handling of the 
economy and a campaign machine that runs in fits and 
starts, the situation appears a tad on the gloomy side 
for the UNP at this point.  We will analyze early next 
week what a potential SLFP/JVP victory would mean on big 
issues for the U.S.  END COMMENT. 
 
8.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD