US embassy cable - 01HARARE628

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000628 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/10 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PHUM, PINS, ZI, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY PUTS OUT A FEELER TO THE 
OPPOSITION 
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CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) SENIOR 
ADVISOR CLIVE PUZEY (PROTECT) INFORMED POLITICAL SECTION 
CHIEF ON FEBRUARY 2 THAT OVER THE JANUARY 27-28 WEEKEND, 
GOODSON NGUNI, REPORTEDLY A RELATIVE OF SPEAKER OF 
PARLIAMENT AND SENIOR ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER EMMERSON 
MNANGAGWA, INVITED THE OPPOSITION PARTY TO ENTER 
FORTHWITH INTO A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY.  ONLY 
PUZEY AND NGUNI WERE PRESENT AT THE MEETING, BUT PUZEY 
LATER BRIEFED MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AND TWO 
OTHER SENIOR OPPOSITION PARTY MEMBERS ON THE SUBSTANCE 
OF THE DISCUSSION.  ZANU-PF WAS PREPARED TO OFFER THE 
MDC 40 PERCENT OF CABINET POSITIONS PLUS A VICE 
PRESIDENCY, ACCORDING TO PUZEY.  IN EXCHANGE, THE ZANU- 
PF OFFICIAL REPORTEDLY WANTED THE MDC'S AGREEMENT 
NEITHER TO HOLD A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002 NOR 
PROSECUTE SENIOR ZANU-PF MEMBERS FOR PAST MISDEEDS. 
PUZEY LISTENED, MADE NO COMMITMENTS AND SUBSEQUENTLY, 
WITH TSVANGIRAI'S BLESSING, AGREED TO CONTINUE LOW 
PROFILE MEETINGS OUTSIDE ZIMBABWE, PERHAPS IN LUSAKA. 
 
2.  (C) THE MDC'S THINKING ON THE OFFER WAS STILL 
INCHOATE BUT THE PARTY HAS NOT DISMISSED IT OUT OF HAND, 
PUZEY ALLOWED.  HE SAID THE OPPOSITION PARTY WOULD 
INSIST ON HEADING THE ECONOMIC POLICY MINISTRIES AND 
HOME AFFAIRS, AND ON THEIR CABINET MINISTERS BEING ABLE 
TO SPEAK FREELY.  THE VICE PRESIDENCY IS OUT, HE STATED, 
AS IT WOULD TIE UP A SENIOR MDC FIGURE IN A POWERLESS IF 
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PRESTIGIOUS POST, AND THE MDC LIKELY WOULD INSIST ON 
GOING AHEAD WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002. 
PUZEY CLAIMED THAT FIVE ZANU-PF MINISTERS, INCLUDING 
SIMBA MAKONI AND NKOSANA MOYO, WERE FED UP AND "ARE ON 
BOARD WITH US."  THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS ALSO CONCERNED 
THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO CONTAIN A WAVE OF VIOLENCE 
THAT ITS ANGRY MEMBERS MIGHT START SPONTANEOUSLY, 
POSSIBLY LEADING TO A DE FACTO CIVIL WAR.  MOREOVER, OUR 
INTERLOCUTOR SAID, EVEN IF THE MDC WINS THE 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ZANU-PF WOULD NOT ALLOW THE PARTY 
TO ASSUME POWER.  INSTEAD, PRESIDENT MUGABE ALMOST 
CERTAINLY WOULD DECLARE MARTIAL LAW AND RULE BY DECREE. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT: PUZEY HAD NO GOOD ANSWER AS TO WHY 
ZANU-PF IS SENDING OUT SUCH A FEELER, ALTHOUGH WE FIND 
THE OFFER A CREDIBLE ONE.  IN OUR OPINION, THE RULING 
PARTY IS UNDER STRONG PRESSURE FROM THE UNDER-PERFORMING 
ECONOMY, THE LOOMING POOR HARVEST, INCREASING 
INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION, AND AN OPPOSITION THAT IS 
REAPING POLITICAL CAPITAL FROM ITS MISHAPS.  IT MAKES 
SENSE TO TAKE THE BOLD STROKE OF BRINGING THE OPPOSITION 
INTO THE TENT AND GIVE IT IMPOSSIBLY DIFFICULT 
PORTFOLIOS AT WHICH IT WOULD FAIL.  IN THE MINDS OF 
ZANU-PF STRATEGISTS, THE ATTACKS IN THE FOREIGN PRESS 
WOULD THEN CEASE AND THE DONOR COMMUNITY WOULD OPEN ITS 
PURSE TO FUND LAND REFORM AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT NEEDS. 
MOST IMPORTANTLY, MUGABE WOULD REMAIN IN POWER AND HIS 
CRONIES WOULD ENJOY PROTECTION FROM THE LAW.  THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY THUS WOULD BE CO-OPTED, DISCREDITED OR 
NEUTRALIZED. 
 
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4.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT 
THE GOVERNMENT HOLDS THE GUNS AND THE MDC THE POLITICAL 
LEGITIMACY HERE.  FOLLOWING THIS OFFER, WE IMAGINE THE 
OPPOSITION FINDS ITSELF ON THE HORNS OF A DILEMMA. 
SHOULD IT LEND ITS GOOD NAME TO THE GOVERNMENT IN THE 
SEARCH FOR PEACE AND ECONOMIC PROSPERITY, OR SHOULD IT 
FIGHT FOR POWER ON ITS OWN TERMS IN WHAT COULD BE A 
PYRRHIC VICTORY, GIVEN THE VIOLENCE THAT THE GOVERNMENT 
CLEARLY IS PREPARED TO DEPLOY IN SUCH A CONTEST?  END 
COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
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