US embassy cable - 01HARARE620

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/10 
TAGS: PREL, EAGR, EAID, ZI 
SUBJECT: DANISH DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION MISSION 
CONDITIONS FUTURE AGRICULTURE AID ON POSITIVE RESPONSE 
TO MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER 
 
REF: HARARE 488 AND PREVIOUS (NOTAL) 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) THE DANISH UNDER SECRETARY FOR BILATERAL 
COOPERATION, AMBASSADOR CARSTEN STRAU, TOLD CHARGE 
D'AFFAIRES ON JANUARY 31 THAT DENMARK'S CONTINUED 
ASSISTANCE IN THE FIELD OF AGRICULTURE DEPENDED ON THE 
ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE TO THE LETTER FROM 
UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ADMINISTRATOR MARK 
MALLOCH-BROWN TO PRESIDENT MUGABE (REFTEL).  (COMMENT: 
THE RESPONSE TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER IS SEEN AS A 
KEY INDICATOR OF FUTURE DONOR SUPPORT -- WHETHER FOR 
LAND OR GENERAL DEVELOPMENT.  THE ZIMBABWEAN 
GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE, NOT TO MENTION ITS TONE AND 
TENOR, WILL PROVIDE A SIGNAL OF INTENT ON ITS "FAST- 
TRACK" LAND REFORM PROGRAM AND WHAT SORT OF ASSISTANCE 
IT WOULD REQUEST OF DONORS.  AN IN-YOUR-FACE RESPONSE 
WILL LEAD TO A HARDER LINE BY DONORS.  IN THE CURRENT 
ENVIRONMENT, EVEN A POSITIVE, CONCILIATORY RESPONSE 
LIKELY WILL BE MET WITH SKEPTICISM AND A "SHOW-ME" 
ATTITUDE.  NO DONOR EXPECTS A ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT 
ABOUT-FACE. END COMMENT). 
 
2.  (C) THE DANISH DIPLOMAT SAID HE PUT THAT MESSAGE 
ACROSS TO MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS STANISLAUS MUDENGE 
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EARLIER THAT DAY.  THE DANISH PARLIAMENT RECENTLY VOTED 
NO NEW AID FOR ZIMBABWE, AND THE PARTY THAT AMBASSADOR 
STRAU IS LEADING SEEKS TO LOOK FOR WAYS TO LEVERAGE AID 
THAT IS STILL IN THE PIPELINE, DESPITE REDUCED LEVELS. 
DENMARK NO LONGER FUNDS ZIMBABWE'S MINISTRY OF 
AGRICULTURE; IT USES MONIES REMAINING FROM THAT PROGRAM 
TO SUPPORT "COMPLEMENTARY APPROACHES" TO THE ZIMBABWEAN 
GOVERNMENT'S LAND REFORM PROGRAM.  ALL OTHER DANISH AID 
NOW GOES TO NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS, BUT FUNDS 
FOR HIV/AIDS AND OTHER HEALTH PROJECT ASSISTANCE REMAIN 
AT NORMAL LEVELS. 
 
3.  (C) STRAU TOLD US THAT MUDENGE DID NOT RECITE THE 
HISTORY OF THE LAND QUESTION IN ZIMBABWE OR TAKE 
ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITY TO REVILE THE BRITISH, 
SOMEWHAT TO HIS SURPRISE.  RATHER, THE ZIMBABWEAN 
FOREIGN MINISTER REASONABLY PROBED THE EXTENT OF THE 
DANISH AID CUTBACK AND CONDITIONS FOR ITS RETURN TO 
PREVIOUS LEVELS.  THE DANISH DIPLOMAT STRESSED TO THE 
FOREIGN MINISTER THAT THAT WOULD BE CONTINGENT ON 
WHETHER VIOLENCE WAS EMPLOYED IN THE UPCOMING 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN AND THE SORTS OF TACTICS 
EMPLOYED IN THE FAST-TRACK LAND REDISTRIBUTION EXERCISE. 
THERE WAS PROVISION TO SCALE BACK AID LEVELS EVEN 
FURTHER.  HE URGED THE MINISTER TO ENTER INTO A ROBUST 
DIALOGUE WITH ALL STAKEHOLDERS ON LAND REFORM, 
PARTICULARLY THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, IN ORDER TO 
SECURE A SETTLEMENT THAT IS ACCEPTABLE TO ALL.  DENMARK, 
HE NOTED, HAD PLACED ZIMBABWE IN A CATEGORY OF COUNTRIES 
NO LONGER ELIGIBLE FOR ITS STANDARD FIVE-YEAR AID 
PROGRAM.  STRAU'S GOVERNMENT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS IN 
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ZIMBABWE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS BEFORE CONSIDERING 
RESUMING NORMAL ASSISTANCE LEVELS. 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT: THE DANES HAVE A LARGE BILATERAL 
ASSISTANCE PROGRAM IN ZIMBABWE AND, AS A RESULT, ARE 
DISPROPORTIONATELY INFLUENTIAL WITH ITS GOVERNMENT.  WE 
HAVE HEARD THAT MUDENGE PRIVATELY EXPRESSED BITTERNESS 
AT THE DANES' CHANGE IN ATTITUDE TOWARD HIS GOVERNMENT, 
GIVEN THEIR TRACK RECORD OF GENEROSITY AND POLITICAL 
SUPPORT FOR THE RULING ZANU-PF WHEN IT WAS A LIBERATION 
MOVEMENT.  THE DANES HAVE SAID ALL THE RIGHT THINGS AND 
THEIR VIEWS ON THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S CONDUCT OF 
THE LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE HEW CLOSELY TO 
OUR OWN.  WHETHER STRAU'S MESSAGE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON 
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S FINAL RESPONSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY'S CONDITIONS FOR HELPING ON LAND REFORM 
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  NEVERTHELESS, THE GOVERNMENT HERE 
COULD NOT FAIL TO UNDERSTAND THE DANES' CLARITY AND 
BLUNTNESS.  ALL INDICATORS ARE THAT OTHER EUROPEAN 
COUNTRIES WILL FOLLOW SUIT -- LED BY SWEDEN, THE CURRENT 
HEAD OF THE 15-NATION EUROPEAN UNION.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
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