US embassy cable - 04MADRID880

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000880 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2014 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, SP, Popular Party, PSOE - Socialist Party, Spanish Election March 2004 
SUBJECT: SPANISH ELECTIONS: MARCH 11 ATTACKS/ALLEGED 
AL-QAEDA LINK KEY TO POPULAR PARTY DEFEAT 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Carol Urban per 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
 
1.  (C) The Socialist Party, turning the tables on all 
pre-March 11 polls, soundly defeated the Popular Party in 
March 14 national elections.   Reaction to the March 11 
terror attacks proved to be the decisive factor.   Massive 
but solemn anti-terror marches March 12 saw 11 million 
Spaniards take to the streets.   These were followed March 13 
by angry protests against the PP following arrests of 
suspects possibly linked to al Qaeda, reigniting large-scale 
opposition to GOS support for the Iraq war.  Protesters also 
accused the government of covering up information and of 
misleadingly attributing the attack to ETA in order to avoid 
electoral fallout.   Further revelations reinforcing the 
al-Qaeda link early March 14 opened an election day marked by 
a massive voter turnout, including previously undecided 
voters and younger, first time voters.  Socialist leader 
Zapatero's total of 164 seats puts him only 12 seats away 
from an absolute majority, a stronger position than anyone, 
even the Socialists themselves, could have imagined a week 
ago.   Zapatero stated March 15 that he would not seek a 
formal coalition with other parties, but would form a 
minority government, working out agreements on legislation 
with other parties on a case by case basis.   End Summary. 
 
The Results 
 
2.  (U) The Socialists (PSOE) received 164 seats in the 
Congress of Deputies, a gain of 39 seats from 2000.   The 
Popular Party, meanwhile, lost 35 seats, dropping from an 
absolute majority of 183 down to 148.    Voter turnout was 
77%, an 8.5% increase over 2000.   Seat totals follow: 
 
Socialist Party - 164 
Popular Party     - 148 
Catalan Nationalist (CiU) -   10 
Catalan Left Nationalist (ERC) -   8 
Basque Nationalist (PNV) -    7 
United Left (IU) -  5 
Others  -   8 
 
3. (U) The Socialists scored major gains in Andalusia, 
Catalonia, the Basque Country and Galicia.  PP results were 
down from 2000 almost nationwide.   In Andalusian regional 
elections, the Socialists surged to regain an absolute 
majority in a region they have controlled for the past 22 
years.   The Popular Party retained control of the Senate, 
with 102 seats to 92 for the Socialists.   However, the 
Senate is the far weaker house of Parliament, and plays no 
role in formation of the government. 
 
March 11 Terror Attacks Decisive 
 
4.  (SBU) No poll conducted before March 8 (the last legal 
date for publishing of new polls) came close to predicting 
the 164-seat total for the Socialists.   The absolute maximum 
range in the most optimistic poll gave the PSOE 144 seats. 
In contrast, a CIS poll, believed to be the most accurate and 
indicative, gave the PP an absolute majority of 177 seats. 
 
5. (C) The March 11 terror attacks changed all calculations, 
especially as possible links to al Qaeda surfaced.  Most 
significant were the arrests in Madrid of five suspects on 
March 13, several allegedly linked to Al Qaeda, and the 
release of a video tape reputed to be from al Qaeda claiming 
responsibility and promising more attacks if Spain continues 
to participate in the coalition in Iraq.   Media and the 
Socialists claimed that the GOS was withholding information 
that might implicate al Qaeda in the attacks for fear of 
electoral consequences.    They also accused the GOS of 
falsely attributing the attacks to ETA. 
 
Vote of Fear, and to Punish the PP 
 
6.  (C) The massive mobilization of the population in 
nationwide anti-terrorism marches March 12, when over 11 
million Spaniards took to the streets, presaged a near record 
election day turnout March 14.    This large voter turnout 
clearly favored the Socialists.   Evidence of possible al 
Qaeda links to the March 11 attacks reignited massive popular 
opposition to the Iraq war.   Aznar and PP candidate Rajoy 
were blamed for having implicated Spain in what the 
Socialists have continually termed an illegal and immoral 
conflict.   This, to many, had made Spain a target. 
Zapatero's relentless anti-war and anti-President Bush 
rhetoric, and his pledge to get Spanish troops out of Iraq by 
June 30 if the mission is not turned over to the UN by that 
date, resonated. 
 
7. (C)  The accusation of "lies" also surfaced strongly, 
particularly in the pro-PSOE Prisa media group, which 
includes El Pais.   A typical line was: the Aznar government 
lied about WMD in getting Spain involved in an illegal war, 
now it is lying about al Qaeda links to March 11.  This line 
echoed Zapatero's plea to voters to use their vote to punish 
the PP for implicating Spain in the war.   As former 
Socialist President Felipe Gonzalez said: a vote for the PP 
is a vote for the war in Iraq. 
 
A Minority Government, Without Formal Coalition Partners 
 
8.  (C)  Zapatero's 164 seats puts him only 12 seats from an 
absolute majority, more seats than even the most optimistic 
pre-March 11 prediction of his own party.   Zapatero said on 
March 15 that he intended not to seek a formal coalition with 
other parties but to run a minority Socialist government and 
to work agreements on specific legislation on a case by case 
basis.    On election night, the moderate Catalan nationalist 
CiU party had already indicated it would like to enter into 
negotiations for a pact with the PSOE.   A pact with the PSOE 
for a "Government of the Left" was a central element in the 
campaign of the IU (left/communists).   The radical Catalan 
republican nationalist ERC have indicated they could also 
support the PSOE, as they do in Catalonia.   Other 
nationalists, such as the moderate Basque nationalist PNV may 
abstain or, possibly, even vote in favor of PSOE. 
Zapatero's investiture thus appears assured.   Since 
Zapatero's government will not have an absolute majority, he 
will be invested on a second round with a simple majority. 
Zapatero should be in office by late April. 
 
(U) Other Election Results: 
 
ERC - Catalan Left Nationalists: jumped from one to eight 
seats.    This is despite (or because of) fact that ERC 
leader Carod Rovira caused a furor by meeting with ETA 
leaders in France in January. 
 
CIU - Moderate Catalan nationalists: Dropped from 15 to 10 
seats.   (ERC believed to have picked these seats up.) 
 
IU - Communist/Left:  Dropped from 9 seats to 5.    The 
Socialists had appealed to IU voters to vote PSOE so their 
vote would count more.    This appeal to a "useful vote" 
worked.    IU had 21 seats in 1996, so the decline is steep. 
 
PNV - Moderate Basque Nationalists:  Held to their 7 seats. 
PNV leader Imaz has signaled he would like to dialogue with 
Zapatero to improve the climate in relations between Madrid 
and the PNV. 
 
(Septel looks at the PSOE foreign policy agenda.) 
 
 
ARGYROS