US embassy cable - 01HARARE522

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6 X5 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, CG 
SUBJECT: READOUT ON MEETING BETWEEN ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT 
AND BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: THE DCM OF THE BELGIAN EMBASSY IN 
HARARE PROVIDED A READOUT TO A SMALL GROUP OF DIPLOMATS 
OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S MEETING WITH BELGIAN FOREIGN 
MINISTER LOUIS MICHEL, WHICH TOOK PLACE THE EVENING OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00522  01 OF 02  251556Z 
JANUARY 24.  MUGABE AND MICHEL DISCUSSED ALMOST 
EXCLUSIVELY THE SITUATION IN THE DRC, AND AGREED IT IS 
IMPORTANT TO GIVE PRESIDENT-DESIGNATE JOSEPH KABILA TIME 
TO ESTABLISH HIMSELF AND FORMULATE HIS OWN POLICIES. 
MUGABE TOLD MICHEL THAT ZIMBABWE HAD BOLSTERED ITS 
FORCES IN THE DRC BY SEVERAL THOUSAND TROOPS AFTER 
WITHDRAWING SEVERAL THOUSAND LATE LAST YEAR.  ZIMBABWE 
SENT TROOPS TO KINSHASA FOLLOWING KABILA'S ASSASSINATION 
TO PRESERVE STABILITY AND PROTECT FOREIGNERS AND 
DIPLOMATS, THE PRESIDENT STATED.  MUGABE WAS ALSO 
CRITICAL OF UGANDA AND RWANDA.  THE HEAD OF STATE AND 
FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSED THE INTERNAL POLITICAL 
DYNAMICS IN THE DRC GOVERNMENT AND THE POSSIBLE ROLE OF 
VARIOUS FACILITATORS, INCLUDING THE BELGIANS AND FORMER 
SENEGALESE PRESIDENT DIOUF, IN REJUVENATING THE LUSAKA 
PEACE PROCESS.  MICHEL CAME AWAY FROM THE MEETING WITH 
THE IMPRESSION THAT ZIMBABWE DOES NOT KNOW THE CONGOLESE 
SITUATION VERY WELL AND HAS HANDLED ITS INVOLVEMENT 
THERE IN A "CLUMSY" WAY.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C)  ON JANUARY 25, BELGIAN DCM ALEXIS DE 
CROMBRUGGHE PROVIDED A READOUT OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S 
MEETING WITH BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LOUIS MICHEL THE 
NIGHT BEFORE TO CHARGE AND POLOFF, AND THE AUSTRALIAN 
AND CANADIAN HIGH COMMISSIONERS.  FOLLOWING HIS 
ATTENDANCE AT LAURENT KABILA'S FUNERAL, MICHEL EMBARKED 
ON A WHIRLWIND TOUR OF AFRICAN CAPITALS, FIRST STOPPING 
IN LUANDA, THEN HARARE, ON JANUARY 24.  (NOTE: MICHEL IS 
PROCEEDING TO KIGALI AND KAMPALA JANUARY 25, THEN 
LIBREVILLE, AND MAY STOP AGAIN IN KINSHASA BEFORE 
RETURNING TO BRUSSELS.  END NOTE.)  IN THE EVENING OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00522  01 OF 02  251556Z 
JANUARY 24, MICHEL WAS MET BY ZIMBABWE FOREIGN MINISTER 
STAN MUDENGE AT HARARE'S AIRPORT, WHERE THEY TALKED FOR 
NEARLY AN HOUR, BEFORE PROCEEDING TO A HASTILY ARRANGED, 
EARLY EVENING MEETING WITH THE ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT.  THE 
TWO, ACCOMPANIED BY THE BELGIAN DCM, MET AT MUGABE'S 
RESIDENCE.  DE CROMBRUGGHE REPORTED THAT THE PRESIDENT 
WAS CHARMING, AND APPEARED ENERGETIC AND IN GOOD HEALTH, 
DESPITE RECENT REPORTS TO THE CONTRARY. 
 
3.  (C) THE DISCUSSION BETWEEN FOREIGN MINISTER MICHEL 
AND MUGABE AND MUDENGE FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON THE 
DRC SITUATION.  MUGABE AND MICHEL AGREED THAT IT IS 
IMPORTANT TO GIVE JOSEPH KABILA TIME TO ESTABLISH 
HIMSELF AND FORMULATE HIS OWN POLICIES.  THE TWO AGREED 
THAT THE JUNIOR KABILA COULD NONETHELESS ENHANCE HIS 
LEGITIMACY BY OPENING A DIALOGUE WITH THE REBELS AND THE 
POLITICAL OPPOSITION.  MUGABE STATED THAT HE SHOULD AT 
LEAST SEND A SIGNAL TO THE REBELS TO INDICATE HE IS 
INTERESTED IN NEGOTIATING.  MUGABE NOTED THAT THE ELDER 
KABILA HAD BEGUN A DIALOGUE WITH THE REBELS IN 
LIBREVILLE.  THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT DID NOT EXPECT THE 
DRC GOVERNMENT TO IMMEDIATELY OPEN UP TO THE OPPOSITION, 
BUT SAID HE WOULD NOT GET "PUSHY" WITH KABILA.  MUGABE 
WAS NON-COMMITTAL ABOUT JOSEPH KABILA, AND IMPLIED A FEW 
TIMES THAT HE IS A TRANSITIONAL FIGURE, ACCORDING TO DE 
CROMBRUGGHE. 
 
4.  (C) MUGABE TOLD MICHEL THAT ZIMBABWE NOW HAS ABOUT 
13,000 TROOPS IN THE DRC.  THE GOZ HAD WITHDRAWN BETWEEN 
3,000 AND 5,000 TROOPS LATE LAST YEAR, BUT WAS FORCED TO 
REAUGMENT ITS FORCE WHEN PWETO FELL TO THE REBELS AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00522  01 OF 02  251556Z 
WHEN KABILA WAS ASSASSINATED, MUGABE SAID.  THE 
PRESIDENT FURTHER EXPLAINED THAT WHEN THE REBELS TOOK 
PWETO, THEY TRAPPED SEVERAL HUNDRED ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS 
BETWEEN LAKES MWERU AND TANGANYIKA.  THE TROOPS WERE 
INSTRUCTED NOT TO FIGHT BUT TO RETREAT ACROSS THE BORDER 
INTO ZAMBIA.  MUGABE HINTED AT SOME UNHAPPINESS WITH THE 
ELDER KABILA WHEN HE UNILATERALLY DECIDED TO ATTACK 
PEPA, AND THE RWANDAN COUNTERATTACK RESULTED IN THE FALL 
OF PWETO. 
 
5.  (C) MUGABE STRESSED TO THE FOREIGN MINISTER THAT 
ZIMBABWE SENT MORE TROOPS TO KINSHASA IN THE WAKE OF 
KABILA'S ASSASSINATION TO "MAINTAIN LAW AND ORDER" AND 
TO PROTECT RESIDENT FOREIGNERS AND DIPLOMATS.  MUGABE 
BLITHELY SUGGESTED THAT THE WEST CONTRIBUTE FINANCIALLY 
TO ZIMBABWE'S INTERVENTION, SINCE IT WAS COSTING 
ZIMBABWE SO MUCH TO PROVIDE THIS VALUABLE SERVICE.  THE 
GOZ WAS FORCED TO INTERVENE "BECAUSE THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY DID NOT DO THE JOB," MUGABE REMARKED. 
BESIDES, ZIMBABWE CANNOT LEAVE A POLITICAL VACUUM IN 
KINSHASA, NOR CAN IT RISK THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7207 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00522  02 OF 02  251556Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  DS-00    EUR-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   NSAE-00  SSO-00   SS-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /002W 
                  ------------------BB8127  251556Z /38 
O 251553Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8086 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000522 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6 X5 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI, CG 
SUBJECT: READOUT ON MEETING BETWEEN ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT 
AND BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
STARTING SOME KIND OF ANTI-GOVERNMENT MASS ACTION, HE 
TOLD MICHEL.  MUDENGE EARLIER REPORTEDLY ADMITTED IT IS 
A "NIGHTMARE" TO MAINTAIN SO MANY TROOPS IN THE DRC WHEN 
ZIMBABWE'S OWN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS FAST 
APPROACHING. 
 
6.  (C)  MUGABE AND MUDENGE WERE FAIRLY CRITICAL OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00522  02 OF 02  251556Z 
RWANDA, UGANDA AND THEIR REBEL SURROGATES.  MUDENGE 
NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH RWANDA HAD PROMISED TO WITHDRAW 
ITS FORCES 200KM, IT INSTEAD ADVANCED 200KM TO TAKE 
PWETO.  ZIMBABWE IS ALSO WORRIED THAT BEMBA'S FORCES 
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE IN NORTHERN DRC.  MUDENGE REMARKED 
THAT BEMBA'S WAR IS REALLY UGANDAN PRESIDENT MUSEVENI'S 
WAR, AND THAT MUSEVENI IS THE KEY TO RESOLVING THAT PART 
OF THE CONFLICT.  MUDENGE WENT AS FAR AS TO SAY THAT THE 
U.S. HAS GIVEN MUSEVENI CARTE BLANCHE IN NORTHERN CONGO 
IN ORDER TO KEEP SUDAN OUT.  MUGABE STATED THAT UGANDA 
AND RWANDA SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH THEIR CONGOLESE 
BORDER PROBLEMS VIA BILATERAL DISCUSSIONS WITH THE DRC. 
AS FOR THE RCD-GOMA REBEL GROUP, MUDENGE OPINED THAT 
THEY WOULD NEVER ACCEPT A DEMOCRATIC CONGO BECAUSE THEY 
ARE SO UNPOPULAR AND WOULD LOSE IN ANY ELECTION. 
FOREIGN MINISTER MICHEL SAID HE WOULD TRY TO PERSUADE 
RCD-GOMA TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. 
 
7.  (C) ON THE LUSAKA PEACE PROCESS, MUDENGE SAID 
ZIMBABWE HAS ENCOURAGED JOSEPH KABILA TO KEEP FORMER 
BOTSWANA PRESIDENT MASIRE AS PEACE FACILITATOR, BUT 
ACKNOWLEDGED TO MICHEL THAT CREATIVITY WAS NEEDED IN 
FINDING A WAY TO SUPPLEMENT HIS EFFORTS.  MUGABE 
INTERJECTED, SAYING THAT THE PEACE PROCESS SHOULD NOT 
DEPEND ON MASIRE ENTIRELY, ESPECIALLY SINCE HE DOES NOT 
SPEAK FRENCH.  GABON PRESIDENT BONGO ADDS A NEW 
DIMENSION TO THE PEACE PROCESS, BUT FORMER SENEGALESE 
PRESIDENT ABDOU DIOUF MAY ULTIMATELY BE A BETTER 
FACILITATOR, MUDENGE OFFERED.  FOREIGN MINISTER MICHEL 
STATED THAT BELGIUM SUPPORTS MASIRE, AND SUGGESTED 
BRUSSELS COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN GETTING THE PEACE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00522  02 OF 02  251556Z 
PROCESS GOING AGAIN.  HE INVITED MUDENGE TO BRUSSELS TO 
FURTHER THE DIALOGUE.  MUDENGE REPORTED THAT HE IS GOING 
TO NEW YORK FOR THE FEBRUARY 21 UN SECURITY COUNCIL 
MEETING OF FOREIGN MINISTERS INVOLVED IN THE DRC WAR. 
 
8.  (C) THE BELGIAN DELEGATION COMMENTED AMONG 
THEMSELVES, AND LATER TO US, THAT THEY DO NOT BELIEVE 
THE ZIMBABWE LEADERSHIP HAS A VERY GOOD GRASP OF THE 
POLITICAL DYNAMICS INSIDE THE DRC.  THEY NOTED THAT THE 
GOZ IS MORE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE OLD GUARD FIGURES OF 
INTERNAL AFFAIRS MINISTER KAKUDJI AND JUSTICE MINISTER 
KONGOLO.  THE BELGIAN AMBASSADOR IN KINSHASA REPORTS 
THAT THE CONGOLESE AMBASSADOR TO ZIMBABWE, KIKAYA BIN 
KARUBI, IS PART OF THE SO-CALLED "NEW GUARD" OF UP-AND- 
COMERS.  THE GOZ'S DISCUSSIONS WITH THE POLITICAL 
OPPOSITION FIGURE AND INTELLECTUAL ARTHUR ZAHIDI NGOMA 
AS A POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSOR DISPLAYS THEIR 
NAIVETE, THE BELGIANS REMARKED.  MICHEL COMMENTED TO HIS 
STAFF LATER THAT HE THINKS ZIMBABWE'S HANDLING OF THE 
CONGO INTERVENTION HAS BEEN "CLUMSY" FROM THE START. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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