US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS1094

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 001094 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED-PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
CORRECTED COPY OF BRUSSELS 1089 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, TU, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT:  EUROPEAN ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN: WHAT TO EXPECT 
 
REF: A) BRUSSELS 631; B) MUNICH 159 
 
1.CORRECTED COPY OF BRUSSELS 1089 
 
2. (SBU) Summary:   The European Parliament (EP) is now 
focused on the June 10-13 European elections.  As a result, 
there will be almost no legislative activity between early 
May and September.  U.S.-EU relations, the war on terrorism 
and Iraq are likely to be themes in many MEPs' campaigns as 
they heat up in April-May.  Another key campaign issue will 
be Turkey's EU accession -- EP approval is needed before 
any new member can join.  The elections are expected to 
yield up to 60 percent turnover of MEPs, and our 
interlocutors, perhaps hastily, predict that the EPP-ED 
(Christian Democrats and Conservatives) will keep a 
plurality of seats with the PES (Socialists/Social 
Democrats) coming in second.  In the post-election EP, the 
expected pro-Americanism and euroskepticism among many new- 
member-state MEPs will bear watching.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SERIES OF PRE-ELECTION REPORTS 
------------------------------ 
 
3. (U) This is the second in a series of reports on the 
European elections.  Septel provided general background on 
the European Parliament and the European elections system. 
Subsequent telegrams will go into more detail on the role 
of U.S.-EU relations in the elections, the reelection 
prospects of key MEPs, possible realignment of party groups 
and the expected influence of MEPs from the countries set 
to join the EU on May 1. 
 
EP ACTIVITY FROM NOW TO SEPTEMBER 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Much of this year's remaining legislative work will 
be done in the three EP plenary sessions between now and 
May 6 (March 29-April 1, April 19-22, May 3-6). 
Resolutions or reports on the following issues of interest 
to the U.S. are set to be brought to a vote before the May 
closure: U.S.-EU relations, Guantanamo detentions, 
preparedness for EU entry of the ten countries set to join 
on May 1, progress of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey towards 
EU accession, cross-border investment services within the 
EU (2nd reading), capital markets transparency directive 
(1st reading), use of labels to claim health benefits of 
food products (1st reading), harmonizing member-state 
legislation to enforce intellectual property rights (1st 
reading), open skies agreement with third countries 
including the U.S. (2nd reading).  Resolutions on biometric 
data for passports and Passenger Name Record (PNR) may also 
be voted on by May. 
 
5. (U) As of May 6, EP business will halt to allow MEPs to 
campaign at home.  The post-election EP, (including the 
newly elected batch of new-member-state MEPs) will not meet 
again until July 20-23, at which time the main focus will 
be election of new EP officers and committee chairpersons. 
The first plenary after the August summer break will be 
September 13-16, at which voting on legislation will begin 
again in earnest.  What is not finished before May 6 is put 
in abeyance until September, and must be formally revived 
by a decision of the EP leadership (Conference of 
Presidents) or it will die. 
 
U.S.RELATIONS WILL BE CAMPAIGN ISSUE 
------------------------------------ 
 
6. (U) Officials in both the EPP and PES tell us that 
themes connected to transatlantic relations such as Iraq, 
the war on terrorism and the link between European Security 
and Defense Policy and NATO will be important campaign 
issues.  In most of the new member states from the former 
East Bloc, we expect keeping close ties to the U.S. to be 
an especially prominent theme.  Immigration issues, 
including worry in western Europe about jobs being taken by 
workers from the new member states, are also expected to be 
important trans-national themes (septel). 
 
TURKEY ACCESSION: MANY AGAINST 
------------------------------ 
 
7. (U) Another key issue for many will be Turkey's 
accession to the EU.  No country can join the EU without an 
EP vote approving the accession.  The Bavarian Christian 
Social Union (CSU) and many in its Christian-Democrat 
sister party (CDU) plan to run opposing Turkey's accession 
(ref B).  In reaction to this, the German Social Democrats 
and Greens have reiterated their stance in favor of Turkish 
accession.  Although it appears that now a majority of 
current MEPs favor Turkish accession, they are far ahead of 
their populations, opening the door for candidates to 
exploit this issue in their electoral campaigns. 
 
SOME EXPECT CHRISTIAN-DEMOCRAT WIN... 
------------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) Our EP interlocutors are predicting that the EPP-ED 
will hold on to its plurality, but much can happen between 
now and June.  With victory as their expressed goal, EPP-ED 
Chairman Hans-Gert Poettering and UK Conservative leader 
Michael Howard have negotiated a deal -- to be voted on by 
EPP-ED MEPs on March 31 -- keeping the British 
Conservatives in the EPP-ED.  Although the EPP has 
consistently opposed U.S. policy on the ICC, the Kyoto 
Protocol and Guantanamo, it is the most pro-U.S. EP group. 
It includes in its ranks, in addition to the German 
Christian Democrats and the UK Conservatives, the Spanish 
Partido Popular, the Italian Forza Italia and the Dutch 
Christian Democrats.  Partido Popular's surprise defeat in 
this weekend's elections may have an impact on campaign 
calculations, and could put a dent in the conventional 
wisdom predicting an EPP plurality. 
 
...BUT CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS MAY SPLINTER 
--------------------------------------- 
 
9. (U) EP interlocutors told us that, after the EPP-ED, the 
PES is expected to remain the second strongest party group, 
and that the Liberal Democrats (ELDR) should come in a 
strong third.  The Greens should lose seats, as they are 
very weak in the new member states.  One recent 
development, however, could throw a wrench in the works. 
On February 20 some members of the EPP (principally from 
the French UDF and the Belgian CDH) met in Rome with 
leaders of the ELDR and members of the Italian "Oliva" 
party (recently launched by Commission President Romano 
Prodi) to explore the possibility of creating a "true 
European Federalist party" - in explicit opposition to the 
EPP's inclusion of the euroskeptic UK conservatives.  If 
this new party group does in fact emerge, the EPP could 
lose seats relative to the PES.  Both of these major 
parties could also find themselves faced with a third 
centrist force significantly stronger than the current 
ELDR. 
 
WHO WILL STAY AND WHO WILL GO 
----------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) According to the Parliament's EPP spokesman, the 
following key EPP-ED MEPs (and friends of the United 
States) are expected to return because of their high 
position on their party lists: Party Group Chairman Hans- 
Gert Poettering (Germany), Foreign Affairs Committee 
Chairman Elmar Brok (Germany), Transatlantic Policy Network 
(TPN) Chief James Elles (UK), and Environment Committee 
Chairwoman Caroline Jackson (UK).  In the PES, party group 
leader Enrique Baron Crespo has not yet decided whether to 
run for re-election.  Many key PES MEPs such as Economic 
and Monetary Affairs Committee Chairwoman Christa Randzio- 
Plath (Germany) and PES Foreign Affairs Committee 
Coordinator Jannis Sakellariou (Germany) will not run for 
re-election.  The leader of the ELDR group, Graham Watson, 
will probably be re-elected but may not remain as ELDR 
chairman.  Other key ELDR MEPs such as Foreign Affairs 
Committee Vice Chair Baroness Nicholson (UK), whose record 
on transatlantic issues is mixed, and PNR rapporteur 
Johanna Boogerd-Quaak (Netherlands), who opposes the U.S. 
agreement with the European Commission on PNR, will 
probably be reelected.  Franco-German Greens leader Daniel 
Cohn-Bendit, elected on the French Green list in 1999, will 
underscore his standing as the premier force behind the 
recent formation of a Europe-wide Green Party by running as 
number two on the German Greens' list. 
 
NEW MEMBER-STATE MEPS PRO-U.S. 
------------------------------ 
 
11. (SBU) Altogether pundits expect the June elections to 
yield up to 60 percent first-time MEPs (including the 162 
new-member-state MEPs), much more than in previous 
elections.  We expect many MEPs from the 10 new countries 
to bring pro-U.S. attitudes and new-member euroskepticism, 
but their lack of EP experience will likely lead them to 
maintain a lower profile in the beginning.  If a plurality 
of the new-member-state MEPs are EPP-ED members, they will 
add to the weight of the pro-U.S. but euroskeptic British 
Conservatives and Forza Italia.  END COMMENT. 
 
FOSTER