US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO1697

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 001697 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #27: CAMPAIGNING, LOGISTICS AND 
A VIGIL FOR LEONEL'S VP CANDIDATE 
 
REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 1518 
     B. (B) STATE 52515 (NOTAL) 
     C. (C) SANTO DOMINGO 1319 
 
1. (SBU) This is no. 27 in our series on the Dominican 
presidential election: 
 
ELECTION CAMPAIGNING, LOGISTICS AND A VIGIL FOR LEONEL'S VP 
CANDIDATE 
 
After Rafael "Fello" Subervi accepted President Mejia's offer 
of the vice presidential slot (Ref A), the ruling PRD mounted 
a rally of thousands with both candidates March 7 to 
celebrate the birthday of late PRD leader Jose Francisco Pena 
Gomez (our SIPRNET site carries Mejia's tub-thumper of a 
rally speech).  Subervi told second-ranked daily HOY, "The 
PRD is 95 percent united" and can count on its 1.7 million 
members to carry Mejia/Subervi to victory.  He acknowledged 
he had "discussed" government jobs for his supporters with 
party president Vicente Sanchez Baret before accepting the 
second slot on the ticket. Mejia accused chief adversary and 
former president Leonel Fernandez (PLD) of "treason" for his 
March 2 statements in Washington warning of an impending 
electoral fraud (Ref B). 
 
Reacting to this and other PRD smear tactics (Ref C), church 
and civic organizations and the Central Election Board (JCE) 
have been advocating a higher level of campaign discourse. 
USAID-funded NGO "Participacion Ciudadana" (Citizens' 
Participation) on March 9 proposed in leading newspapers a 
16-point code of ethics for the election campaign, advocating 
"an atmosphere conducive to debate and discussion of 
programs, ideas and themes important to the nation, without 
attacks or personal diatribes." 
 
Mejia's camp expressed mild interest in holding televised 
presidential candidate debates -- unprecedented here -- but 
PLD Secretary General Reinaldo Pared Perez sneered at the 
idea.  The PLD SecGen said the President "doesn't meet the 
necessary conditions for a debate" since he is below 20 
percent in the polls and PLD candidate and former president 
Leonel Fernandez is above 60.  Fernandez instead on March 8 
began running nightly on prime time television a 
docu-advertisement of "conversations with constituents." 
PRSC candidate Eduardo Estrella -- as far down in the polls 
as Mejia -- has shown no interest in a debate, but in recent 
days appeared at a civic forum on corruption, where he 
promised tighter economic austerity and tough anti-corruption 
measures.  None of the candidates has published an election 
platform. 
 
Traditional caravans and marches are accelerating, and the 
first violence occurred March 7 in an incident that left four 
injured.  Campaign directors met March 8 and agreed to 
exchange itineraries for street rallies, so as to avoid 
partisan confrontations.  The three contenders and two minor 
party condidates planned an intense campaign schedule March 
13-14 in the provinces and the capital.  President Mejia 
plans to hit Barahona in the impoverished southwest for the 
inauguration of more public works. 
 
Counting, Registering and Preparing 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
Central Election Board (JCE) judges and technical directors 
on March 4 held a public briefing for diplomats, journalists, 
and political party representatives on logistics and data 
processing arrangements.  The event afforded detailed 
information on the election preparations, but did not allay 
the opposition's distrust of the JCE as a Mejia-packed court. 
 The briefers reported a total of 5,020,703 eligible 
registered voters, of whom 52,440 will vote in overseas 
locations in the United States, Canada, Spain, and Venezuela 
(a first for the Dominican Republic).  Voters will cast 
ballots at 12,102 "colegios electorales" (polling tables) at 
home and abroad; handwritten tallies will be scanned into the 
computer system at 134 municipal election boards and overseas 
sites and transmitted by dedicated telephone lines to the JCE 
computer center in  Santo Domingo.  The JCE said it was 
adhering to its published timetable and had recruited and 
begun training 82 percent of the needed 66,561 volunteer poll 
workers. 
 
USAID-funded NGO Participacion Ciudadana (Citizen 
Participation) gave a lunch for diplomats and the press March 
3 to outline its plans for 6,000 Dominican election observers 
and to offer an independent assessment of the election 
arrangements.  The Monitoring Commission of notables chaired 
by Mons. Agripino Nunez conferred with "Mini-Dublin-Group" 
diplomats (including poloff) March 2 to exchange views and 
concerns, from defects in voter rolls to security shortfalls 
in the JCE's computer system.  A committee of information 
systems advisers to the JCE on March 10 delivered a report 
critical of computer security and recommended an outside 
audit; a copy quickly leaked to the press.  JCE president 
Luis Arias replied that the computer and voter list problems 
were well known to the JCE's experts and were being resolved. 
 The JCE earlier had announced that polling places will be 
open April 17-18, well in advance of the election, for voters 
to verify that their registrations are correct. 
 
Nerves 
- - - - 
 
Civil society, business, and the opposition continue to call 
for maximum vigilance by national and international 
observers, to safeguard against rumored abuses in support of 
the President's re-election bid.  Some contacts ask us, "Why 
is the United States less supportive of election observers 
than in previous elections?"  This comes mainly from 
Fernandez's PLD, the National Council of Private Enterprise 
(CONEP), and other business groups.  We have taken every 
opportunity to correct this misperception, for example in a 
private briefing for the American Chamber of Commerce board 
March 5.  PLD leaders and members of Participacion Ciudadana 
told the press on March 11 of their concern that 
international monitoring might be inadequate.  They exhorted 
the JCE to get additional qualified international groups 
involved.  JCE Administrative Chamber presiding judge Nelson 
Gomez, at the March 4 briefing and in a subsequent TV 
interview, urged international observers -- including 
diplomats -- to begin their activities as soon as possible. 
 
Inexorable Movement of Preparations 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
The JCE announced it would distribute RD $412.8 million (US 
$8.4 million) in public campaign financing to the registered 
political parties March 28, of which RD $304 million (US 
$6.2) would go to the three big parties.  The JCE approved 
additional political party alliances (small hangers-on 
casting their lot with Mejia or Fernandez) and resolved 
disputes within two small parties, invalidating their 
proposed alliances with the ruling PRD.  Army Major General 
Elvio Guerrero Reyes, recently named to head the Electoral 
Police to provide polling site security before and on 
election day, announced that the JCE from March 25 to 31 
would train Armed Forces and National Police officers for 
this duty.  The Electoral Police will have a total contingent 
of 35,000 military and police personnel. 
 
The VP sweepstakes 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
This weekend's cliffhanger is Leonel's choice of a vice 
presidential candidate, scheduled to go public before the 
March 17 deadline for registering candidates.  Pundits have 
happily been pouring out names of possible running mates, 
including business leaders as well as politicians.  The other 
PLD chieftains Danilo Medina (PLD candidate in 2000) and 
Jaime David Fernandez (VP in 1996-2000) Jaime David Fernandez 
Mirabal seem unlikely choices. Medina has been more effective 
as a behind-the-scenes organizer than in public, and Jaime 
David probably is biding his time for a future presidential 
bid. Party organs will meet Sunday to recommend a candidate, 
but the final choice will be up to Leonel. 
 
2. (U)  Drafted by Bain Cowell. 
 
3. (U)  This report and others in our election series are 
available on the Department's SIPRNET at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/  along with 
other current material. 
KUBISKE