US embassy cable - 01KINSHASA440

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000440 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CG 
SUBJECT: POST-KABILA:  FASHIONING A NEW REGIME 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR WILLIAM LACY SWING FOR REASONS 
1.5(B)(D) 
 
1. (C) WITH THE INITIAL SHOCK OF KABILA'S ASSASSINATION, AND 
NOW HIS BURIAL, BEHIND THEM, THE CONGOLESE POWER STRUCTURE IS 
STRUGGLING TO COME TO GRIPS WITH THEIR NEW SITUATION AND MOVE 
AHEAD. 
 
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2. (C) KABILA'S ADVISERS 
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IN THIS CONNECTION, PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA HAS ASSEMBLED AS 
ADVISERS A SMALL GROUP OF MILITARY MEN AROUND HIM, INCLUDING: 
GENERAL KALUME, MINISTER OF PLANNING AND RECONSTRUCTION; FAC 
GENERAL OLENGO; AND COLONEL EDDY KAPEND, AIDE-DE-CAMP UNDER 
LAURENT KABILA.  ON THE CIVILIAN SIDE, HE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO 
ASSEMBLE ABLE TECHNOCRATS SUCH AS LAWYER JEAN MBUYU (WHOM WE 
REGARD HIGHLY AND WHO, WE UNDERSTAND, ALSO WROTE KAKUDJI'S 
REMARKS AT THE FUNERAL). 
 
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3. (C) A PROMISING INAUGURAL ADDRESS 
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WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THESE ADVISERS -- AND THAT OF SOME OF 
THE LEADERS HERE FOR THE FUNERAL, SUCH AS BELGIAN DEPUTY 
FOREIGN MINISTER LOUIS MICHEL -- JOSEPH KABILA IS PRESENTLY 
PREPARING HIS INAUGURAL ADDRESS, WHICH HE EXPECTS TO DELIVER 
BEFORE THE WEEKEND.  ONE OF OUR SOURCES, WHO CLAIMS TO HAVE 
SEEN AN INITIAL DRAFT OF KABILA'S REMARKS, TOLD US THAT HE IS 
IMPRESSED.  EMPHASIS WILL BE ON OPENING UP THE PROCESS, BOTH 
WITH REGARD TO THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, LIBERALIZING DECREE 194 
WHICH IMPOSES HEAVY LIMITS ON POLITICAL PARTY ORGANIZATIONS 
AND ACTIVITIES; AND STRENGTHENING THE GOVERNMENT'S HUMAN 
RIGHTS RECORD.  THE INAUGURAL ADDRESS WILL ALSO MAKE AN 
URGENT APPEAL FOR A REVIVAL OF THE PEACE EFFORT BASED ON 
LUSAKA, AT LEAST AS A REFERENCE POINT, AND MAKE A 
CONCILIATORY GESTURE, UNDEFINED, TOWARD NATIONAL DIALOGUE 
FACILITATOR MASIRE.  WE UNDERSTAND, FURTHER, THAT THE 
POSTPONEMENT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION FROM JANUARY 24 
TO JANUARY 25 OR 26 WAS DUE TO LAST DITCH EFFORTS BY 
HARD-LINERS, NOTABLY JUSTICE MINISTER MWENZE KONGOLO AND 
OTHERS, TO WATER DOWN KABILA'S CONSTRUCTIVE, FORWARD-LOOKING 
MESSAGE (RATHER THAN TECHNICAL OR CONSTITUTIONAL REASONS). 
 
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4. (C) WHAT KIND OF PRESIDENT? 
------------------------------ 
 
THE MAJOR STUMBLING BLOCK IN MOVING AHEAD IS THAT OF THE 
NATURE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE KABILA IS TO ASSUME, AND 
THREE MODELS ARE BEING DISCUSSED: 
 
-- BE SWORN IN NOW AS A "FULL" PRESIDENT WITH AN OPEN-ENDED 
TERM AND DEAL WITH OTHER ISSUES OR PROBLEMS THIS MAY POSE 
LATER; 
 
-- AGREE TO BE A TRANSITIONAL "INTERIM" PRESIDENT; OR, 
 
-- BECOME A "FULL" PRESIDENT WITH A STRICTLY LIMITED TERM OF 
OFFICE, THAT IS, ELECTIONS TO BE HELD WITHIN TWO YEARS. 
 
JOSEPH KABILA AND HIS ADVISERS APPARENTLY PREFER THE LAST 
OPTION, AND WE AND MOST OTHER DIPLOMATS HERE CONSIDER IT THE 
LEAST PROBLEMATICAL AND MOST LIKELY TO PROMOTE RECONCILIATION 
AND STABILITY IN THE INTERIM. 
 
 
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5. (C) THE QUESTION OF LEGITIMACY 
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BELGIAN AMBASSADOR NIJSKENS TOLD AMBASSADOR SWING EVENING OF 
JANUARY 24 THAT HIS GOVERNMENT HAD RESEARCHED THE QUESTION OF 
SUCCESSION AND HAD CONCLUDED THE FOLLOWING: 
 
-- DECREE NUMBER THREE OF MAY 1997 (ISSUED JUST DAYS AFTER 
KABILA TOOK POWER) IS SILENT ON THE QUESTION OF PRESIDENTIAL 
SUCCESSION. 
 
-- HOWEVER, THE DECREE DOES PROVIDE THAT, ANY ISSUE WHICH 
DECREE 3 DOES NOT SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS IS TO BE COVERED BY 
THE "TRANSITIONAL ACT"; AND, 
 
-- ARTICLE 54 OF THE "ACTE DE TRANSITION" PROVIDES THAT WHEN 
THE PARLIAMENT DETERMINES THAT THE PRESIDENCY IS "VACANT", 
THE PARLIAMENT AND SUPREME COURT DECIDE IN WHOM THE 
CONSTITUTIONAL POWERS OF THE PRESIDENCY ARE TO BE INVESTED. 
 
 
6. (C) THE BELGIAN AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED THE BELGIAN POSITION 
WITH RESPECT TO THE ISSUE OF LEGITIMACY AND THE MANNER IN 
WHICH THE GDRC IS PROCEEDING TO INAUGURATE JOSEPH KABILA AS 
FOLLOWS: 
 
-- THE ASSASSINATION OF PRESIDENT LAURENT KABILA HAS CREATED 
A SITUATION OF URGENCY IN THE CONGO WHICH REQUIRES CONTINUITY 
AND SECURITY; 
 
-- GIVEN THAT THE ISSUE OF LEGITIMACY IS POSED, HOWEVER, A 
POLICY OF POLITICAL OPENNESS IS CRITICAL; 
 
-- IN THIS REGARD, EMPHASIS SHOULD BE PLACED ON BEGINNING 
THIS POLICY OF OPENNESS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL (WHILE POLITICIANS 
ARE ENGAGING IN THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, THERE SHOULD BE 
SIMULTANEOUS EFFORTS TO BEGIN ORGANIZING LOCAL ELECTIONS); 
AND, 
 
-- FINALLY, THE SEARCH FOR PEACE SHOULD BE PERMANENT. 
 
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7. (C) COMMENT: 
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THE CHALLENGE WITH WHICH THE CONGOLESE ARE GRAPPLING IS THAT 
OF HOW TO PRESERVE THE LEGACY OF LAURENT-DESIRE KABILA WHILE, 
SIMULTANEOUSLY, INSTITUTING THE COURSE CORRECTIONS REQUIRED 
TO PROPEL THE COUNTRY FORWARD TOWARD PEACE AND STABILITY AND 
POLITICAL OPENNESS.  JOSEPH KABILA IS CRITICAL TO MEETING 
THIS CHALLENGE SUCCESSFULLY.  THIS IS THE CASE BOTH BECAUSE 
OF HIS NAME, AS WELL AS HIS POSITION IN THE MILITARY, AND HIS 
OWN APPARENT DESIRE TO MOVE BEYOND THE CURRENT IMPASSE FACING 
THE PEACE AND RECONCILIATION PROCESS. 
 
SWING