US embassy cable - 01HARARE507

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00507  01 OF 03  250536Z 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/24/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT:  MDC MP URGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO GET TOUGH 
WITH MUGABE 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) MP DAVID 
COLTART TOLD POLOFFS ON JANUARY 24 THAT ZIMBABWE'S 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MUST BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND 
MARCH 31, 2002, AND SAID ANY ATTEMPT TO CALL AN EARLIER 
ELECTION WOULD BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL.  HE CLAIMED THAT THE 
MDC HAS THE SUPPORT TO WIN AN ELECTION THAT IS EVEN CLOSE 
TO FREE AND FAIR, AND SAID THE PARTY WOULD FOCUS ON 
REGISTERING THE 600,000 ZIMBABWEANS EXPECTED TO TURN 18 
BETWEEN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION AND THE UPCOMING 
PRESIDENTIAL POLL. ACCORDING TO COLTART, A COORDINATED 
CAMPAIGN OF PRESSURE ON PRESIDENT MUGABE BY THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- PARTICULARLY COMMONWEALTH 
NATIONS -- IS ESSENTIAL TO ACHIEVING RESTORATION OF THE 
RULE OF LAW AND A FREE AND FAIR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
COLTART EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN ABOUT INCREASING 
HARASSMENT AND INTIMIDATION OF SUPREME COURT JUSTICES, AND 
ASKED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DO WHAT IT CAN TO 
BOLSTER THE JUDICIARY.  END SUMMARY. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00507  01 OF 03  250536Z 
 
2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) IN A JANUARY 24 DISCUSSION OF RECENT POLITICAL 
DEVELOPMENTS WITH POLOFFS, MDC MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT AND 
SECRETARY FOR LEGAL AFFAIRS -- AND PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS 
 
SIPDIS 
LAWYER -- DAVID COLTART NOTED THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION MUST BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND MARCH 31, 2002. 
ACCORDING TO COLTART, THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THAT A 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BE HELD WITHIN 90 DAYS PRIOR TO THE 
EXPIRATION OF THE INCUMBENT'S TERM, AND PRESIDENT MUGABE'S 
CURRENT TERM EXPIRES ON APRIL 1, 2002.  HE DISMISSED THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT ZANU-PF COULD CALL A SNAP ELECTION LATER 
THIS YEAR IN AN EFFORT TO CATCH THE MDC OFF-GUARD, SAYING 
SUCH A MOVE WOULD BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL.  THE ONLY WAY AN 
ELECTION COULD BE HELD EARLIER THAN THE SPECIFIED 90-DAY 
PERIOD, COLTART SAID, WOULD BE IN THE EVENT MUGABE 
RESIGNED, DIED, OR WAS INCAPACITATED. 
 
3.  (C) COLTART INSISTED THAT ZIMBABWEAN DEMOGRAPHICS FAVOR 
THE MDC IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  ZANU-PF, HE 
POINTED OUT, WON 200,000 FEWER VOTES THAN THE OPPOSITION 
PARTIES IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND WOULD BE 
UNLIKELY, FOR TWO REASONS, TO PRESERVE EVEN THAT MARGIN IN 
2002.  FIRST, COLTART CONTENDED, ZANU-PF RECEIVED AS MANY 
VOTES AS IT DID BECAUSE MANY OF THE RULING PARTY'S 
PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES WERE POPULAR IN THEIR LOCAL 
COMMUNITIES.  MUGABE, THOUGH, WOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MANY 
VOTES NATIONWIDE AS HIS PARTY DID, BECAUSE HE IS DEEPLY 
UNPOPULAR.  SECOND, COLTART NOTED, SOME 600,000 ZIMBABWEANS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00507  01 OF 03  250536Z 
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN 18 -- AND THUS BECOME ELIGIBLE TO VOTE 
-- BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, AND HE CLAIMED THAT 
MOST OF THESE POTENTIAL NEW VOTERS LIVE IN URBAN AREAS AND 
ARE COMPLETELY DISILLUSIONED WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND 
ZANU-PF.   ONE OF THE MDC'S KEY ELECTORAL STRATEGIES, 
THEREFORE, IS TO REGISTER AS MANY OF THESE 18-YEAR-OLDS AS 
POSSIBLE.  COLTART ASKED FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE IN ENSURING A 
FAIR, TRANSPARENT REGISTRATION PROCESS, NOTING THAT THE GOZ 
HAS IN THE PAST ERECTED OBSTACLES TO THE REGISTRATION OF 
VOTERS SUSPECTED OF SUPPORTING THE OPPOSITION. 
 
ZANU-PF IN END GAME STRATEGY 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) COLTART SAID THE RECENT PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS 
IN MARONDERA AND BIKITA HAD CONFIRMED THAT ZANU-PF IS 
DETERMINED TO EMPLOY ANY MEANS TO HOLD ON TO POWER.  THE 
MDC, HOWEVER, DOES NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY OR INCLINATION TO 
COUNTER THE TERROR CAMPAIGNS THAT THE RULING PARTY IS 
CLEARLY PREPARED TO ORCHESTRATE IN OTHER BY-ELECTIONS. 
COLTART, THEREFORE, IS ADVISING THE MDC LEADERSHIP NOT TO 
BE AS STRIDENT IN PURSUING ITS CHALLENGES TO ZANU'S 
ELECTORAL VICTORIES IN 38 CONSTITUENCIES IN LAST JUNE'S 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  IF THESE CHALLENGES ARE 
SUCCESSFUL AND RESULT IN THE HOLDING OF BY-ELECTIONS, THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5163 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00507  02 OF 03  250536Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00 
      INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EAP-00   EB-00    EUR-00   FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NEA-00   NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  SA-00    R-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /009W 
                  ------------------BB41C9  250536Z /38 
P 250534Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8077 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY ACCRA 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00507  02 OF 03  250536Z 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/24/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT:  MDC MP URGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO GET TOUGH 
WITH MUGABE 
 
MDC'S PREFERENCE WOULD BE FOR THEM TO BE CONDUCTED IN 
TRANCHES, RATHER THAN INDIVIDUALLY, AS THIS WOULD POSE A 
LOGISTICAL CHALLENGE FOR ZANU-PF AND ITS TACTICS OF 
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION.  (NOTE:  COLTART MENTIONED THAT 
ANOTHER BY-ELECTION MAY SOON BE IN THE OFFING BECAUSE THE 
ZANU-PF MP FOR MWENEZI DISTRICT, ISAIAH SHUMBA, IS "ON HIS 
DEATH BED."  END NOTE.) 
 
CRUCIAL ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  COLTART STRESSED THAT A COORDINATED CAMPAIGN OF 
PRESSURE ON PRESIDENT MUGABE BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
-- PARTICULARLY COMMONWEALTH NATIONS WHICH HAVE 
HISTORICALLY ENJOYED GOOD RELATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE -- IS 
ESSENTIAL TO BRINGING ABOUT A RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF 
LAW AND ENSURING A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THAT IS FREE AND 
FAIR.  COLTART MENTIONED INDIA, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, NEW 
ZEALAND, GHANA, BOTSWANA, AND NIGERIA AS NATIONS THAT COULD 
PLAY A PARTICULARLY CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE.  HE THOUGHT THE 
UNITED STATES COULD BE MOST EFFECTIVE BEHIND THE SCENES IN 
PRESSING OUR FRIENDS IN THE COMMONWEALTH TO DELIVER A VERY 
TOUGH MESSAGE TO MUGABE.  THE ESSENCE OF THAT MESSAGE, 
COLTART URGED, SHOULD BE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00507  02 OF 03  250536Z 
WILL NOT TOLERATE THE GOZ'S CONTINUED ABUSE OF THE RULE OF 
LAW AND THAT, IF THE PRESIDENT CONTINUES TO VIOLATE THE 
HUMAN RIGHTS OF HIS CITIZENS IN AN EFFORT TO REMAIN IN 
POWER, HE CAN EXPECT TO FACE SPECIFIC CONSEQUENCES.  SUCH 
CONSEQUENCES, COLTART EXPLAINED, MIGHT INCLUDE A BAN ON 
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL BY MUGABE AND HIS CRONIES AND/OR A 
COORDINATED INVESTIGATION OF THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF 
THEIR ASSETS.  THE THREAT OF HAVING HIS ASSETS SEIZED, 
COLTART BELIEVED, WOULD FORCE MUGABE TO REVERSE HIS MORE 
OBJECTIONABLE AND DAMAGING POLICIES. 
 
6.  (C)  POLOFF ASKED WHO SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY TARGETS OF 
A TRAVEL BAN OR INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION.  COLTART 
REPLIED THAT, LAST NOVEMBER, HE HAD SHARED WITH FORMER AF 
DAS WITNEY SCHNEIDMAN AND AF/S A PAPER IMPLICATING ELEVEN 
SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS, INCLUDING PRESIDENT MUGABE, IN 
SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MATABELELAND MASSACRES IN THE 1980S AND WITH THE CAMPAIGN 
OF VIOLENCE WHICH PRECEDED THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTION. 
 
JUDICIARY NEEDS HELP 
-------------------- 
 
7.  (C) COLTART EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE SUPREME COURT, 
AND CHIEF JUSTICE GUBBAY IN PARTICULAR, HAS COME UNDER 
IMMENSE PRESSURE FROM THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH, RANGING FROM 
THE NOVEMBER INVASION OF THE COURT BY WAR VETERANS AND 
RENT-A-THUGS TO REPEATED PUBLIC CRITICISMS BY SENIOR GOZ 
OFFICIALS.  COLTART SAID HE HAS NO DOUBT THAT THE GOZ WANTS 
TO TRY TO FORCE GUBBAY TO RETIRE BEFORE HE REACHES HIS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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MANDATORY RETIREMENT AGE IN APRIL 2002 AND TO REPLACE HIM 
WITH THE PLIABLE PRO-ZANU JUDGE PRESIDENT OF THE HIGH 
COURT, GODFREY CHIDIYAUSIKU.  GUBBAY, COLTART CLAIMED, IS 
FEELING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED AND MIGHT SOON SUCCUMB TO THE 
PRESSURE TO RESIGN.  COLTART MADE A STRONG PLEA FOR THE 
UNITED STATES AND OTHERS TO DEMONSTRATE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR 
THE JUDICIARY AND ITS INDEPENDENCE. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C) WE SHARE COLTART'S ANALYSIS THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE 
ALMOST CERTAINLY CANNOT WIN AN ELECTION THAT APPROACHES 
FREE AND FAIR AND WILL USE ALL THE RESOURCES AT HIS 
DISPOSAL TO STAY IN POWER.  THE RESIGNATION OF CHIEF 
JUSTICE GUBBAY -- AND HIS REPLACEMENT WITH GODFREY 
CHIDIYAUSIKU -- WOULD HAVE A CHILLING EFFECT ON THE RULE OF 
LAW, EFFECTIVELY NEUTRALIZING THE ONE REMAINING BRANCH OF 
GOVERNMENT THAT PROVIDES A CHECK ON MUGABE'S POWERS.  WE 
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE CONCLUSION THAT ONLY SIGNIFICANT 
AND COORDINATED EXTERNAL PRESSURE IMPOSED VIA THE KIND OF 
DIPLOMATIC CAMPAIGN COLTART SUGGESTS, WITH TOUGH STICKS, IS 
LIKELY TO FORCE MUGABE TO STEP BACK FROM HIS PRESENT 
DISASTROUS COURSE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5164 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00507  03 OF 03  250536Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00 
      INL-00   DINT-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  WHA-00   SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EAP-00   EB-00    EUR-00   FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NEA-00   NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  SA-00    R-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /009W 
                  ------------------BB41CC  250536Z /38 
P 250534Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8078 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA 
AMEMBASSY ACCRA 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00507  03 OF 03  250536Z 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/24/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT:  MDC MP URGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO GET TOUGH 
WITH MUGABE 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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