US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO465

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000465 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL/CRA; NSC FOR E. 
MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:     DECL: 03-16-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, PTER, PHUM, CE, Elections, KWMM, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: Campaign Snapshot:  Major parties issue dueling 
manifestos; Tamil party tries to recover lost momentum 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston VA DTG 160300Z Mar 04 
 
-      (B) FBIS Reston VA DTG 150329Z Mar 04 
-      (C) Colombo 456, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) In this message, Mission reviews the following 
items related to Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary 
election campaign: 
 
-- President Kumaratunga defends record in nationally 
televised address; 
 
-- United National Party (UNP) releases strongly pro- 
peace process manifesto; 
 
-- President Kumaratunga's possible picks for prime 
minister slot (if her party wins election); 
 
-- After split in LTTE, main Tamil party tries to 
recover lost momentum; 
 
-- The "Flavor of the Campaign":  As election day looms, 
race gradually picks up steam. 
 
======================== 
President defends record 
======================== 
 
2.  (SBU) In a campaign speech televised nationwide on 
the evening of March 14, President Chandrika Kumaratunga 
strongly defended her record in office -- see Ref A. 
(The 30-minute speech was taped in Sinhala and was also 
broadcast in Tamil.)  In the speech, she said that she 
and the previous People's Alliance (PA) government had 
had great success in moving the peace process forward 
and in improving the state of the economy.  The 
President also reserved some criticism for Prime 
Minister Wickremesinghe.  She asserted that in his two 
years as PM, he had undone much of the social and 
economic progress made by her party during its time in 
power (from 1994-2001).  Re the PM and his party, she 
stated that they have "delivered nothing but plunder of 
national assets without any shame."  She wrapped up by 
urging voters to support her United People's Freedom 
Alliance (UPFA) in the April 2 election.  (Note:  The 
UPFA is the technical term for the alliance between the 
President's Sri Lanka Freedom Party, "SLFP," and the 
radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, "JVP.") 
 
3.  (SBU) Several days before Kumaratunga's speech, the 
UPFA publicly launched its election manifesto.  A key 
aspect of the very long manifesto document was its 
proposal to convert the new Parliament into a 
constituent assembly to develop a new constitution that 
would replace Sri Lanka's executive presidency with a 
strong parliamentary system.  The manifesto also 
supported the peace process and called for a resumption 
of talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE). (Septel reviews manifesto's comments on 
economic-related issues.) 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT:  Compared to her often fiery rhetoric, 
the President's speech was relatively tame.  That said, 
she did get her licks in against PM Wickremesinghe, her 
cohabitation rival.  The overall tenor of the speech and 
the manifesto was a moderate, almost centrist one.  At 
this point -- and this could fade as the election draws 
nearer, the UPFA appears to be trying to appeal to Sri 
Lanka's "swing" voters, as opposed to trying to rouse 
the party faithful.  Regarding the UPFA manifesto, its 
comments on the executive presidency were not new. 
Kumaratunga has long supported getting rid of the 
executive presidential system in favor of a powerful PM 
slot.  Many observers believe she would like to become 
the PM under such a system, as opposed to being forced 
to retire from politics after her two terms as president 
(the mandatory limit) are complete.  The proposal to 
convert the new Parliament into a constituent assembly 
has already generated fierce rhetoric, however.  This 
would allow the President to bypass the constitutional 
provisions which require a two-thirds majority for 
amendment.  END COMMENT. 
 
====================================== 
UNP issues pro-peace process manifesto 
====================================== 
 
5.  (SBU) The UNP has also launched its manifesto. 
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and other leaders of the 
UNP introduced the manifesto, entitled "Completing the 
People's Unfinished Business," at a press conference 
held in Colombo on March 15 (see Ref B).  The manifesto 
advocates the resumption of peace talks "as soon as 
possible after the election" and supports the inclusion 
of a separate Muslim delegation.  The document also 
calls for measures to combat government corruption and 
defends the economic track record of the UNP government. 
In an appearance at a March 12 rally, the PM also took a 
shot at the UPFA manifesto, claiming that the UPFA had 
"failed to give a definite solution to the country's 
prolonged crisis, or how to end the war and bring 
peace." 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  The UNP manifesto did not contain any 
surprises.  Since coming to power in December 2001, the 
UNP has pushed forward on the peace process and on 
economic reforms, and the manifesto endorsed those 
moves.  In the battle of the dueling manifestos, it is 
not clear how important the issuing of these documents 
will be to either the UPFA or UNP campaign.  The 
parties, however, distribute the texts of the manifestos 
far and wide in a bid to gain maximum support.  Thus, a 
manifesto that is considered well-crafted could be a 
vote-winner.    END COMMENT. 
 
============================================= == 
President's possible picks for PM (if she wins) 
============================================= == 
 
7.  (C) As the campaign hurtles forward, President 
Kumaratunga has not yet formally declared who would be 
named as prime minister for the UPFA in the event that 
her party was in position to form the next government. 
According to press reports, the President recently told 
a delegation of business leaders that she would be 
favorable to naming a member of "a minority community" 
as prime minister in a possible UPFA government. 
Following this statement, speculation surged that 
Kumaratunga was referring to Lakshman Kadirgamar, a 
close adviser to the President and a Tamil.  In the 
meantime, other candidates for the slot are said to 
include:  former Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse; 
Anura Bandaranaike, the President's brother and a senior 
SLFP MP; and D.M. Jayaratne, a senior MP and leading 
official in the SLFP.  (Every indication is that the 
President will pick a prime minister from her own SLFP 
party and not from any other party such as the JVP, for 
example.) 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT:  Kumaratunga has been careful not to 
tip her hand regarding the PM slot, but -- per her 
veiled remark -- Kadirgamar seems to be a real 
possibility.  A former foreign minister (1994-2001), 
Kadirgamar, who is a longtime Mission contact, is 
respected by many Sri Lankans for being a Tamil who has 
stood up to the LTTE.  The flip side of this, however, 
is that the LTTE is known to detest him, which could 
complicate the peace process if the UPFA won and he 
(Kadirgamar) was named PM.  END COMMENT. 
 
======================================== 
Tamil party tries to recover lost ground 
======================================== 
 
9.  (SBU) Many observers had commented earlier in the 
campaign cycle that the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance 
(TNA) had gotten off to a fast start.  Since the split 
in the LTTE between northern and eastern elements 
emerged in early March (see Ref C), however, the party 
seems to have lost some of its earlier momentum.  TNA 
candidates continue to campaign actively in Jaffna in 
the north and Trincomalee in the east.  (See Ref C for 
report about the state of the campaign in Jaffna, for 
example.)  Candidates have significantly slowed down 
their campaign activities in Batticaloa and Ampara 
Districts in the east, however, due to tensions in that 
region caused by the LTTE split.  There are also 
concerns in the TNA that voter turnout in the Tamil 
community might be negatively affected by the split. 
 
10.  (C) COMMENT:  When the campaign began, there were 
many predictions that the TNA would win over 20 seats in 
Parliament, up from its current 15-16.  That still might 
happen.  That said, the TNA is clearly going through a 
very difficult period and it will have to move quickly 
to re-establish its former momentum.  Most observers 
still believe that the TNA will probably play a key role 
in forming the next government if the UPFA and UNP do 
not gain majority support in Parliament on their own. 
END COMMENT. 
 
========================= 
Campaign picking up steam 
========================= 
 
11.  (U) In our "Flavor of the Campaign" section:  As 
election day nears, the campaign -- which up to this 
point had been relatively quiet by Sri Lankan standards 
-- is starting to heat up.  Because of Elections 
Commissioner Dananda Dissanayake's decision to have the 
police strictly enforce the ban against campaign 
posters, etc., there had been sparse visible evidence 
that an election was nearing (see Ref C).  With just 
under three weeks to go until the election, however, the 
pace has picked up, with a plethora of campaign ads now 
appearing in the print media, and campaign commercials 
coming fast and furious on radio and television 
stations.  There has also been a big increase in 
campaign rallies and meetings.  Prime Minister 
Wickremesinghe has been flying around the country to 
stump for the UNP, for example.  President Kumaratunga 
has also been doing some traveling, but to a lesser 
extent than the PM.  Reports also indicate an increase 
in JVP meetings in villages in the south.  Moreover, 
despite the Elections Commissioner's wish, more posters 
and electoral banners are also appearing in Colombo and 
elsewhere. 
 
12.  (SBU) COMMENT:  As described above, the intensity 
of the campaign is steadily building up and the next 
several weeks should be very hectic.  The election was 
not very popular when it was called and there seemed to 
be some lethargy in the campaign when it first began -- 
but that is now gone.  All of this newfound intensity 
and energy, hopefully, will not translate into more 
campaign-related violence.  For a Sri Lankan campaign, 
this race has been almost sedate, thus far, but there 
are fears that killings and attacks could pick up in the 
days leading up to April 2.  END COMMENT. 
 
13.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD