US embassy cable - 04MADRID865

C O N F I D E N T I A L MADRID 000865 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE 
NSC FOR FRIED AND VOLKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, SP 
SUBJECT: SPAIN:  POSSIBLE IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK ON 
ELECTIONS MARCH 14 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION CAROL J. URBAN, REASONS 1 
.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  BEFORE THE MARCH 11 TERRORIST ATTACKS IN 
MADRID, THE DRAMA OF THE MARCH 14 SPANISH NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
CAMPAIGN CENTERED ON WHETHER PRESIDENT AZNAR'S POPULAR PARTY 
AND ITS CANDIDATE MARIANO RAJOY, WOULD WIN ENOUGH SEATS IN 
PARLIAMENT TO GOVERN WITH AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY (REFTEL). 
OVER THE LAST WEEK OF THE CAMPAIGN, BEFORE IT WAS SUSPENDED 
YESTERDAY BECAUSE OF THE ATTACKS, SPANISH SOCIALIST (PSOE) 
CANDIDATE JOSE LUIS RODRIGUEZ ZAPATERO HAD BEGUN IN EARNEST 
TO EXPLOIT POPULAR OPPOSITION TO AZNAR'S IRAQ POLICY. 
THE BOMBINGS MARCH 11, HOWEVER, WILL NOW PUT THE RACE IN A 
NEW CONTEXT.  MUCH WILL DEPEND ON INFORMATION THAT EVOLVES 
OVER THE WEEKEND.  IF ON ELECTION DAY VOTERS BELIEVE THAT ETA 
CARRIED OUT THE ATTACKS, THE PP MAY GAIN VOTES AND POSSIBLY 
WIN AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY, AS THE PARTY THAT HAS BEEN TOUGHEST 
ON ETA.  IF VOTERS WHO WERE ALREADY PRONE TO OPPOSE THE PP'S 
FOREIGN POLICY BELIEVE THAT THERE WAS AN AL-QAEDA LINK TO THE 
ATTACKS, WE MAY SEE A SURGE OF SUPPORT FOR THE SOCIALIST 
PARTY.  THE ATTACKS MAY PROMPT A LARGE VOTER TURNOUT, WHICH 
COULD BOOST THE SOCIALIST VOTE COUNT.  MEANWHILE, THE SPANISH 
COUNCIL OF MINISTERS HAS PROVISIONALLY APPROVED PRESIDENT 
AZNAR'S VICTIM COMPENSATION PLAN AND WILL SEND TO KING JUAN 
CARLOS HIS PROPOSAL TO GRANT SPANISH NATIONALITY TO 
IMMIGRANTS WHO DIED IN THE ATTACKS REGARDLESS OF THEIR 
IMMIGRATION STATUS, AS WELL AS THEIR CHILDREN AND PARENTS. 
SPANIARDS ARE GATHERING IN THE THOUSANDS IN THE RAIN IN 
MADRID THE EVENING OF MARCH 12 IN SOLIDARITY WITH THE VICTIMS 
OF THE MARCH 11 ATTACKS. END SUMMARY. 
 
3. (C) THE GOS REMAINS CONVINCED ETA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
MARCH 11 ATTACKS ON COMMUTER TRAINS THAT KILLED 198 PEOPLE AT 
LATEST COUNT AND INJURED OVER 1400.  BUT THE DISCOVERY OF A 
VAN WITH DETONATORS AND AN ARABIC TAPE WITH KORAN VERSES HAS 
MUDDIED THE WATERS AND HAS BEGUN TO CAST DOUBT IN THE MINDS 
OF SOME VOTERS THAT ETA WAS RESPONSIBLE. 

4. (C) SOCIALIST CANDIDATE ZAPATERO SAID MARCH 12 THAT THE 
"POLITICAL RESPONSE" TO THE ATTACKS SHOULD BE DIFFERENT 
DEPENDING ON WHETHER ETA OR ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS PERPETRATED 
THE BOMBINGS.  ZAPATERO'S REMARKS IMPLIED THE SPANISH 
ELECTORATE SHOULD VOTE AGAINST THE PP GOVERNMENT MARCH 14 IF 
IT IS DETERMINED ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS WERE RESPONSIBLE, TAPPING 
INTO A THEME WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO HEAR HERE THAT THE 
AZNAR GOVERNMENT'S SUPPORT FOR THE IRAQ COALITION PUT SPAIN 
IN THE LINE OF ISLAMIC EXTREMIST FIRE. 
 
5. (C) IN ADDITION, PSOE NATIONAL COORDINATOR JOSE BLANCO 
CLAIMED TO THE PRESS (WITH NO APPARENT EVIDENCE) MARCH 12 
THAT THE AZNAR GOVERNMENT WAS HIDING INFORMATION ON THE 
ATTACKS IN AN EFFORT TO AVERT A NEGATIVE REACTION BY THE 
ELECTORATE BEFORE THE SUNDAY ELECTIONS. 
 
6.  (C) IF THE ELECTORATE BELIEVES THAT ETA AUTHORED THE 
ATTACKS MAY TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF THE PP, AND PROVIDE 
THE ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IT HAS BEEN SEEKING.  BUT IF ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION EMERGES OVER THE WEEKEND SUGGESTING ISLAMIC 
EXTREMISTS WERE THE AUTHORS -- OR PREVIOUSLY UNDECIDED VOTERS 
BELIEVE THE ISLAMIC EXTREMIST CONNECTION -- PSOE MAY WIN 
LARGER-THAN-ANTICIPATED NUMBERS OF VOTES IN SOLIDARITY FOR 
ITS OPPOSITION TO AZNAR'S IRAQ POLICY. 
 
7.  (C)  COMMENT:  BY LAW, POLLING ON SPANISH NATIONAL 
ELECTIONS CLOSED ON MONDAY, MARCH 9, ALMOST A WEEK AHEAD OF 
THE ELECTIONS.  BOTH RAJOY AND ZAPATERO MARCH 11 DECLARED A 
SUSPENSION OF THE LAST DAYS OF THEIR CAMPAIGNS, MAKING IT 
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE POPULAR SENTIMENTS AFTER THE ATTACK BASED 
ON ANY STATISTICAL DATA ON VOTER REACTIONS.  IF THE SITUATION 
REMAINS AS IT IS AT PRESENT -- WITH THE GOS ASSERTING ETA WAS 
RESPONSIBLE, BUT SOME FACTS CREATING SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN 
ISLAMIC EXTREMIST CONNECTION, THE PP MAY STILL WIN BUT MIGHT 
NOT ACHIEVE THE ABSOLUTE MAJORITY.  IF VOTERS COME TO BELIEVE 
IN AN ISLAMIC EXTREMIST CONNECTION (WHETHER CONFIRMED OR 
NOT), THE SOCIALISTS COULD DENY THE PP A GOVERNING MAJORITY. 
BY SEPTEL, EMBASSY WILL REPORT ON POSSIBLE COALITION 
SCENARIOS. 
 
 
ARGYROS