US embassy cable - 04MADRID850

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000850 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SP 
SUBJECT: SPAIN'S UNITED LEFT (IU) PARTY: A DECLINING FORCE 
BUT STILL PLAYING A ROLE 
 
REF: MADRID 0613 
 
1. (SBU) Note: This message was planned prior to the March 11 
terrorist attacks in Madrid as a feature of Embassy's advance 
reporting on Spain's March 14 elections.  It provides a 
snapshot of the United Left Party, one of Spain's smaller, 
but still significant political parties.  End note. 
 
2. (SBU) Summary:  The grouping of communist and 
communist-leaning parties, the United Left, finds itself 
still playing a role in national elections this year, but its 
influence has been trending down since 1996, and there are 
some who foresee its eventual disappearance from the national 
scene.  If the Spanish Socialists get within striking 
distance of forming a coalition government, the IU will 
definitely be supportive, but differences between the IU and 
the Socialists continue to rule out full coordination to 
unseat the PP.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
History of the United Left 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) The United Left (IU) is an electoral coalition that 
was organized in 1986.  Its dominant member is the Communist 
Party of Spain (PCE), and other partners include radical 
socialists, greens, and supporters of Spain's old Republic of 
the 1930s.  The PCE participated alone in the 1977 and 1979 
elections, winning 9.4 percent (20 seats) and 10.8 percent 
(23 seats) of the vote, respectively.  After a miserable 
showing in 1982 that left it without representation, it 
emerged again (reorganized under the United Left coalition) 
in 1989 to win 9.1 percent (17 seats).  The IU vote grew 
slightly in both the 1993 and 1996 elections, reaching 10.5 
percent of the vote (21 seats) in 1996.  In the 2000 election 
Popular Party (PP) landslide, the IU fell to its current 8 
Congressional seats, winning just 5.4 percent of the vote. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
When Socialism's Not Left Enough 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (SBU) While they share many leftist viewpoints, divisions 
run deep between the IU and the Spanish Socialist Party 
(PSOE).  The PCE originally broke with the PSOE due to 
ideological differences in the early 1920's.  In general 
terms, the IU views the PSOE as a centrist party, not 
leftist, claiming that the PSOE is too closely wed to 
capitalism, market-based economics and other 
"non-progressive" policies.  While not communists in the full 
Marxist-Leninist sense (the IU advocates democracy and does 
not oppose private property, in fact it supports creating a 
"right to private property for all"), the IU does still seek 
a "non-capitalist" economic model that would give a greater 
role to the public sector and better redistribute wealth. 
 
5. (SBU) The IU agrees with the PSOE agenda on such issues as 
increased spending on social programs, education and 
environmental protection.  On foreign policy, they agree with 
the PSOE on making Spanish relations with the European Union 
primary to any trans-Atlantic relationship with the US, and 
in opposing Spanish military involvement in Iraq.  However, 
the IU advocates other positions that are radically left of 
the PSOE, such as terminating military basing rights for US 
forces, holding a resolution to determine if Spain should 
leave NATO, rejecting the EU common position towards Cuba, 
and more actively supporting the Palestinian cause by 
suspending the EU Association Agreement with Israel. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Role and Future of the IU 
--------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) While under Spain's system of proportional 
representation in Congress, there would be a great advantage 
for the IU and PSOE to run as a combined electoral coalition 
of the left (see reftel), neither party has been willing to 
team together since the period leading to the Spanish Civil 
War.  Poloff spoke to Fernando Vallespin, a political science 
professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid who has ties 
to the PSOE, and Vallespin said that such a grouping would 
likely scare off moderate PSOE voters to such a degree that 
it would negate the benefit of running a combined slate. 
 
7. (SBU) Spain's proportional representation system 
under-represents the votes of the small parties, giving them 
a lower percentage of Congressional seats compared to the 
true percentage of votes they receive.  Hence, if the only 
goal was to unseat the conservative PP government, leftist 
votes would be better used if they went for the much larger 
PSOE.  This fact has not been lost on the PSOE, who have 
campaigned this election for left-wing votes under the slogan 
of "Voto Util" (which can be translated as "Useful Vote" or 
"Vote that Matters"), trying to convince far-left voters not 
to diminish anti-conservative voting power by voting for the 
smaller IU.  The PSOE leader, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, 
has also stated that the Socialist will not attempt to form a 
government if they do not win more votes than the PP.  While 
few believe that the PSOE would pass up a chance to form a 
coalition with smaller parties if the opportunity presented 
itself, the statement is seen as another measure to tempt IU 
voters to 
vote for the PSOE.  The IU has aggressively fought back 
against the "Voto Util" campaign, with the party's leader, 
Gaspar Llamazares, calling the PSOE slogan repugnant and 
against democratic ideals of pluralism.  Llamazares has also 
derided Zapatero as trying to change Spain's parliamentary 
system into an American-style two-party system with his 
threat to not form a coalition government if the PSOE comes 
in second. 
 
8. (SBU) Professor Vallespin states that in essence, the IU 
vote is a protest vote, and electoral calculations have never 
been a primary concern to its voters.  Given that much of the 
far-left disdains the PSOE as a "centrist party", and the 
fact that IU leaders cherish their independence and have 
actively sought to energize their base with the need for a 
"true left" agenda, he did not believe that IU voters would 
be swayed to vote Socialist in significant numbers. 
 
9. (SBU) With polls showing that the IU should retain a share 
in Congress close to its current eight seats, the IU could 
play a role in forming a coalition government with the PSOE 
should the PP falter.  They also make up coalition PSOE-IU 
governments in some of Spain's autonomous regions, with the 
IU's strongholds being Andalucia (the mayor of the major city 
Cordoba is IU), Asturias, Madrid, Valencia and the Basque 
region.  That said, the IU vote has been trending downward 
since 1996, and there are some who forecast its eventual 
demise as a national presence. 
 
10. (SBU) Juan Diez-Nicolas, President of ASEP, a prestigious 
polling and sociological studies firm, told Poloff that their 
forecasts see the IU as a dying force.  He believes that 
there will always be an anti-establishment protest vote, 
especially among students and labor groups, but that with 
Spain's economic gains and movement towards a more 
service-oriented economy, this protest vote could likely sink 
below the three-percent threshold to receive seats in 
Congress.  Professor Vallespin stated that he agrees that the 
IU may disappear, as a part of the IU's vote has been linked 
to families with ties to the Spanish Republic of the 1930s. 
With very few elderly voters who actually participated in the 
Republic surviving, these ties are getting stretched, 
according to Vallespin, as grandchildren and 
great-grandchildren feel less personal association to the 
Communist and old Republic movements.  The IU had been hoping 
to draw in a whole new generation of supporters from the 
millions of Spaniards who protested against the war in Iraq 
and the Aznar government's support of US policies.  However, 
the huge anti-war protests did not translate into an increase 
in support for the IU in the regional elections of May 2003, 
with the IU actually losing seats in the regional races.  If 
this anti-war vote does not materialize for the IU in this 
national election, their hopes of regaining their old 
prominence may be lost. 
ARGYROS