US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB410

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 000410 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FOR EUR/SCE, PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2014 
TAGS: PREF, PHUM, PREL, HR, Refugee 
SUBJECT: SURVEY ON REFUGEE RETURN TO CROATIA 
 
Classified By: PolOff Mitch Benedict for reason 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) Results of an extensive survey, financed jointly by 
USAID and the OSCE, show that only five percent of ethnic 
Serb refugees -- approximately 10,500 out of the estimated 
210,000 ethnic Serbs from Croatia who are now in Serbia or 
Bosnia -- plan to return to Croatia in the next five years, 
and that receiving communities remain strongly opposed to 
return.  The survey indicates that there are still strong 
currents of antipathy in Croatia to Serb refugee returns and 
that additional substantial returns of refugees are unlikely. 
 The survey has not yet been released publicly; however, the 
OSCE has discussed the results with the Government and 
briefed UNHCR. 
 
2. (C) The reported five percent who plan to return compares 
with 25-30 percent of Croatia Serbs in Serbia who two years 
ago told UNHCR representatives they would return to Croatia 
under "certain conditions."  The Croatia OSCE Mission says 
the survey simply confirms what they already know, mainly 
that refugee populations lack sufficient information in order 
to make an informed decision on return.  We believe that 
information provided through an organized campaign, as 
proposed by the OSCE Mission, is by itself unlikely to boost 
returns substantially, and that in the end additional returns 
of ethnic Serb refugees to Croatia will number somewhere 
between the optimistic OSCE projection of 40,000 and the 
survey's 10,500.  End Summary. 
 
Background and Methodology of Survey 
------------------------------------ 
 
3. (SBU) USAID, in support of the OSCE's return and 
reintegration program, financed a survey to determine the 
emotional and motivational factors that affect the return of 
refugees (primarily Croatian Serbs) and the level of 
acceptance of their return by the local population.  The 
survey, conducted by the Zagreb-based PULS Agency, looked at 
four different populations: (1) the domiciled population, 
mixed but largely ethnic Croat, living in areas of return for 
ethnic Serb refugees (the so-called "war-affected areas"); 
(2) ethnic Serb refugees originally from Croatia who are 
living in Serbia Montenegro and Bosnia Herzegovina; (3) 
ethnic Croat refugees from Bosnia Herzegovina who are living 
in Croatia; and, (4) a reference group of all Croatian 
citizens. (Comment: the 2001 census reported that 89.6 
percent of the population of Croatia is ethnic Croat; ethnic 
Serbs make up 4.5 percent, and no other ethnic group makes up 
more than 0.5 percent of the population.  The 1991 census 
found that 12.6 percent of the population was ethnic Serbs. 
End Comment.) 
 
4. (SBU) The PULS survey was based on a questionnaire that 
was completed through a personal interview conducted in the 
respondent's place of residence.  Interviews lasted 30-40 
minutes, and were conducted in the December 2003 to January 
2004 timeframe.  The sample size for each of the four groups 
varied, but was between 600-1000 for each of the four groups. 
 The research represented the largest survey done on public 
attitudes regarding the issue of refugee return and 
reintegration to date. 
 
Substantial Additional Returns Unlikely 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Only five percent of both refugee populations -- 
ethnic Croat refugees from Bosnia Herzegovina and ethnic Serb 
refugees from Croatia -- say they plan on returning to their 
former country of domicile in the next five years.  Given 
that there are approximately 210,000 ethnic Serb refugees 
(190,000 in Serbia Montenegro and 20,000 in Bosnia 
Herzegovina), a return rate of five percent would mean that 
only 10,500 ethnic Serb refugees plan to return.  Only 15 
percent of ethnic Serb refugees described Croatia as a place 
they would want to live and 60 percent say they will never 
return to their former homes. 
 
6. (SBU) Information provided by former acquaintances, 
friends, and family forms the basis of what refugees know 
about former communities and homes.  Most survey respondents 
know someone who returned, and such private sources of 
information are the most trusted.  Less than 15 percent of 
ethnic Serbs living in Serbia Montenegro report having heard 
positive impressions about conditions in their former homes, 
 
while over 30 percent report having heard negative 
impressions.  More than half of all ethnic Serbs responded 
that living among people of their own nationality is 
important or very important, which also supports a survey 
finding that both ethnic Croats and ethnic Serbs would be 
more willing to return if there is a return en masse. 
 
7. (SBU) Younger and more educated survey respondents are the 
least likely to want to return -- a finding which is 
reflected by the actual returnee population.  Most returnees 
are elderly; young people and families are unlikely to return 
to where there are no jobs, and the prospects for employment 
are slim.  A large majority of respondents -- 68 percent of 
ethnic Serb refugees and 78 percent of ethnic Croat refugees 
-- say their primary focus over the next five years is to 
improve their living conditions where they now live. 
 
Return of Refugees Still Strongly Opposed 
----------------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Among the domiciled population in war-affected areas 
of Croatia -- the mixed but largely ethnic Croat population 
that never left Croatia -- there is still strong opposition 
to the return of ethnic Serb refugees.   Fully 30 percent of 
the population currently residing in war-affected areas 
responded that cohabitation between ethnic Serbs and Croats 
is completely or mostly impossible; half the respondents said 
they felt ethnic Serbs want to return to Croatia because they 
want to start the war again. 
 
9. (SBU) By a margin of over 2:1 those who live in 
war-affected areas, and ethnic Croat refugees from Bosnia, 
think the return of Serbian refugees is not a good thing for 
Croatia.  In addition, nearly 50 percent of the general 
population of Croatia thinks that the return of Serbian 
refugees is not a good thing for Croatia.  Of the population 
living in war-affected areas, nearly 80 percent have had 
Serbian refugees return to their town or village, and more 
than half the respondents report they are not happy about it. 
 
10. (SBU) There is also strong opposition to government 
assistance to ethnic Serb returnees, including reconstruction 
of homes and provision of alternative accommodation.  Only 
three percent of all non-Serb respondents said the Government 
should encourage ethnic Serbs to return and give them all 
possible assistance to do so.  In contrast, 30-40 percent of 
all non-Serb respondents said the government should not help 
Serbian refugees at all.  A majority of respondents of the 
domiciled population in war-affected areas that never left, 
and the general population, think that ethnic Serbs should 
not get back their occupancy/tenancy rights.  In general, 
27-35 percent of all non-Serb respondents believe that ethnic 
Serbs left Croatia voluntarily and should not be allowed 
back. 
 
 
OSCE Remains Guardedly Optimistic 
--------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) The OSCE Mission to Croatia told us that the survey 
confirms what the Mission already knows: there are strong 
reservations on the part of receiving communities toward the 
return of ethnic Serb refugees.  However, OSCE Mission 
staffers have told us that the survey offers wide latitude 
for interpretation -- and that a total return of only 10,500 
refugees (para 7) is well below their expectations.  The 
OSCE's Return and Reintegration Unit will argue that they 
still expect approximately 14,000 total households -- at 
least 40,000 people -- to return by the end of 2006.  Higher 
returns are still possible, according to the OSCE, if full 
and complete information is made available to potential 
returnees. 
 
12. (U) The OSCE's optimistic figures are also based in part 
on an informal survey conducted in 2001 by UNHCR in Serbia 
during a re-registration exercise of all 230,000 refugees 
from Croatia in Serbia at the time.  The data showed that 
approximately 25-30 percent of refugees -- 70,000 people -- 
said that they would return to Croatia under certain 
conditions, the primary one being return of housing or 
provision of alternative accommodation. 
 
13. (U) A projected return of 14,000 households is based on 
the following.  There are 12,000 pending applications for 
reconstruction assistance, and of those approximately half 
are likely to receive positive decisions for reconstruction 
assistance.  In addition, the OSCE calculates that 
 
approximately 23,000 households outside war-affected areas, 
and perhaps and additional 10,000 households within 
war-affected areas, lost their occupancy/tenancy right (OTR) 
to live in socially owned apartments.  According to the 
Government's estimate -- which the OSCE assumes to be low -- 
only 5,000 OTR holders will avail themselves of alternative 
accommodation and return to Croatia.  Therefore, a total 
figure of 14,000 households still to return is based on 6,000 
apartment dwelling families who receive compensation for lost 
OTR; 6,000 families who receive reconstruction assistance; 
and, 2,000 families who return to claimed properties that are 
now still occupied. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14. (C) The total number of additional returns through the 
end of 2006 is likely to fall somewhere between the survey's 
low estimate of 10,500 total individuals and the OSCE's 
optimistic estimate of 40,000.  Unmarried youth and young 
families are the least likely to return because employment 
opportunities in the war-affected areas are relatively bleak 
and will remain so for the foreseeable future. 
 
15. (C) The disincentives for the working age population to 
return are strong.  There are few economic incentives for 
businesses to locate in these areas, and the huge socialist 
behemoths that once employed the masses by the thousands are 
either dead or dying for lack of investment and markets. 
Consequently, potential returnees are going to remain the 
elderly and those willing to engage in small-scale 
agricultural pursuits -- a limited population that is only 
getting smaller. 
 
16. (C) We believe that OSCE and/or GOC information campaigns 
designed to encourage return are likely to be only marginally 
effective at best.  Refugees are most likely to continue to 
make decisions on their future based on what they hear from 
former neighbors, friends, and family members who have 
returned.  The attitudes of receiving communities, and how 
those attitudes play out in terms of safety and security, 
will remain paramount.  A half million dollar ad campaign, 
for example, is likely to fall on deaf ears if ethnic Serb 
males can be arbitrarily arrested and detained on war crimes 
accusations (the perception in Eastern Slavonia), or that, 
once reconstructed, one's house may be attacked and burned -- 
as happened recently in the Zadar hinterlands. 
 
17. (C) One could interpret the survey to mean that the 
primary factors determining return are societal attitudes and 
jobs, variables over which the GOC has only marginal control 
in the short to mid-term.  That, combined with the estimate 
that the total number of future returnees is going to be 
relatively small, should give the GOC confidence to do all it 
can on the variables over which it does have control -- 
namely processing applications for reconstruction assistance, 
facilitating repossession, and providing alternative 
accommodation for former holders of OTR. 
FRANK 
 
 
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