US embassy cable - 04ROME936

UNCLAS ROME 000936 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MARR, PREL, PGOV, MOPS, EAID, MCAP, IZ, IT, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQI FREEDOM 
SUBJECT: ITALIAN LOWER HOUSE SET TO APPROVE FUNDING FOR 
MILITARY MISSIONS ABROAD 
 
REFTEL:  ROME 638 
 
1.(U)  SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
2.  (U) ON MARCH 10, THE ITALIAN CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (THE 
LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT) IS EXPECTED TO APPROVE THE 
GOVERNMENT DECREE EXTENDING UNTIL JUNE 30, 2004, FUNDING 
FOR ITALY'S PARTICIPATION IN ALL THE MILITARY MISSIONS IN 
WHICH IT IS ENGAGED ABROAD, INCLUDING IRAQ.  (THE 
OPPOSITION HAS PUT FORWARD NUMEROUS AMENDMENTS AS A 
DELAYING TACTIC, SO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE VOTE IS 
UNPREDICTABLE.)  THE CHAMBER WILL LIKELY APPROVE THE SAME 
TEXT IT RECEIVED FROM THE SENATE, BUT MAY MAKE LIMITED, NON- 
CRITICAL CHANGES. IN THAT EVENT, THE DECREE WOULD HAVE TO 
GO BACK TO THE SENATE FOR FINAL APPROVAL; WE WOULD STILL 
EXPECT POSITIVE ACTION BEFORE IT EXPIRES ON MARCH 22.  (THE 
SENATE APPROVED THE ORIGINAL DECREE ON FEBRUARY 18; SEE 
REFTEL.)  THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE DECREE WILL BE 
APPROVED WITH THE SOLID VOTES OF THE CENTER-RIGHT GOVERNING 
MAJORITY. 
 
3.  (SBU) WITH THE OUTCOME A FOREGONE CONCLUSION, THE ONLY 
SUSPENSE IN THE RUN-UP TO THE VOTE HAS BEEN ON HOW MORE 
MODERATE OPPOSITION ELEMENTS WOULD POSITION THEMSELVES. 
THE GREENS, COMMUNIST RENEWAL (RC), AND THE ITALIAN 
COMMUNISTS (PDCI) WILL VOTE AGAINST; THEIR OPPOSITION TO 
ANYTHING TOUCHING THE U.S.-LED WAR IN IRAQ IS UNSHAKABLE. 
    BUT THE VOTE BROUGHT CONSTERNATION TO THE MORE CENTRIST, 
NEWLY-CREATED COALITION OF THE DEMOCRATS OF THE LEFT (DS), 
ITALIAN SOCIALISTS (SDI) AND THE DAISY, JOINED TOGETHER 
UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF EU COMMISSION PRESIDENT PRODI IN 
ADVANCE OF JUNE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND LOCAL ELECTIONS. 
WHILE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF VAUNTING ITS NEW "UNITY," THE 
COALITION WAS CONFRONTED WITH AN ISSUE ON WHICH THE DS 
COULD NOT EVEN AGREE INTERNALLY.  IN THE END, THE DS-SDI- 
DAISY "TRICYCLE" DECIDED NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN THE VOTE, 
THE SAME ACTION IT TOOK IN THE SENATE.  IT IS AN AGREEMENT 
LIKELY TO BE HONORED IN THE BREACH, HOWEVER.  AT A MINIMUM, 
MUCH OF THE DS' FAR-LEFT "CORRENTONE" WILL VOTE AGAINST. 
SIMILARLY, SOME OF THE "TRICYCLE'S" MORE MODERATE ELEMENTS 
MAY VOTE IN FAVOR. 
 
4.  (SBU) OF ALL THE MISSIONS COVERED IN THE DECREE, 
CONTROVERSY CONCERNED ONLY THE ONE IN IRAQ.  PRINCIPAL 
ELEMENTS OF THE CENTER-LEFT SAY THEY COULD ONLY AGREE TO 
EXTEND THE ITALIAN MISSION TO IRAQ IF, AS DS LEADER FASSINO 
RECENTLY STATED IN A PRESS INTERVIEW, "SOMETHING REALLY 
CHANGES" BY THE END OF JUNE -- THE UN ASSUMES A "REAL" 
LEADING ROLE, AN IRAQI CONSTITUTION IS APPROVED, ELECTIONS 
ARE HELD, AND A FIRM DATE FOR THE PASSAGE OF POWERS TO THE 
IRAQIS IS SET.  THE "TRICYCLE" IS NOT PREOCCUPIED BY THE 
FACT THAT MOST OF THESE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN MET.  NOT VOTING 
AT ALL AND NOT FORMALLY ABSTAINING, THEY SUGGEST, IS A 
SIGNAL OF DISAPPROVAL TO THE GOVERNMENT WHILE STILL SHOWING 
SUPPORT FOR ITALIAN TROOPS INVOLVED IN THE VARIOUS MILITARY 
EFFORTS ABROAD.  (COMMENT: IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THE 
ELECTORATE UNDERSTANDS THIS PHILOSOPHY.  END COMMENT.) 
 
    5.  (U) SEE REFTEL FOR A BREAK-DOWN ON DOLLAR ALLOCATIONS 
TO DIFFERENT MISSIONS, AS WELL AS A LIST OF THE MILITARY, 
CIVILIAN, AND POLICE MISSIONS FOR WHICH FUNDING IS EXPECTED 
TO BE EXTENDED. 
 
6.  (U) CPA BAGHDAD MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
SEMBLER 
 
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 2004ROME00936 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED