US embassy cable - 04ANKARA1436

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001436 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES UPCOMING LOCAL 
ELECTIONS WITH OPPOSITION CHP LEADER BAYKAL 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman. Reason: 1.4 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary:  In a March 5 meeting, Ambassador solicited 
main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz 
Baykal's views of March 28 local elections.  Throughout the 
discussion, Baykal attempted to downplay the importance of 
the elections and seemed resigned to a poor CHP showing.  End 
Summary. 
 
 
2. (C) During a lengthy monologue on local elections in 
general, CHP leader Baykal made the following points as he 
led up to a weak defense of his party's expected poor showing: 
 
 
-- The GOT is still relatively new to governance, and the 
electorate will want to give the ruling Justice and 
Development Party (AKP) more time; 
 
 
-- Voting-age Turks, who remember past economic and political 
crises, will support AKP in the name of stability; 
 
 
-- Turks will vote not along party lines but for the 
candidate that seems to be best positioned to deliver more 
efficient and effective local administration. 
 
 
-- Turks universally believe that the party in power will be 
better able to do so, which means many will vote for AKP 
candidates regardless of their own party affiliation. 
 
 
-- Results in local elections are, therefore, more often the 
product of immediate voter needs versus true political 
preferences. 
 
 
3. (C) Reflecting on CHP's election strategy, Baykal asserted 
that on the center-left, CHP is the only viable option.  The 
party has no difficulties on the center-left, he claimed.  As 
part of a national, more long-term strategy, CHP is now 
turning to center-right voters who are not pleased with the 
GOT's performance to date.  "We are trying to reach out to 
these voters because we share many of the same values," 
Baykal said.  He further claimed corruption in the GOT and 
ongoing concern about "national issues" like Cyprus will 
eventually lead center-right voters to CHP. 
 
 
4. (C) When pressed about his expectations of CHP's 
performance in local elections, Baykal dodged, saying the 
party had no target in mind.  He added that CHP "is doing 
what it thinks it should be doing.  We do our best."  A 
clearly resigned Baykal averred that he and the party 
leadership will surely be criticized -- both from within the 
party and in the press -- following the local elections. 
"But we're used to it," he said.  In any case, Baykal noted, 
CHP leadership does not ascribe much importance to local 
elections, adding that "I don't take them very seriously." 
EDELMAN