US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV1488

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001488 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2014 
TAGS: PREL, KPAL, PTER, IS, EG, XF, EU, GOI EXTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: FM SHALOM REVIEWS BUSY TRAVEL ITINERARY; BELIEVES 
U.S. WILL PROVIDE ASSURANCES 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Foreign Minister Shalom told the Ambassador 
on March 8 that in recent discussions in London and Dublin 
the Europeans had conveyed a preference for GOI-PA 
negotiations in the context of the roadmap, as opposed to 
unilateral steps.  UK PM Tony Blair reportedly expressed 
admiration for President Bush's bold policy of sidelining 
Arafat.  Shalom said reports from a Labor Party delegation 
that recently visited Egypt showed Egyptian President Mubarak 
is concerned about Hizballah and al-Qaeda filling any void in 
Gaza left by withdrawing Israeli troops.  Shalom expects to 
hear from Mubarak that the GOE is willing only to patrol the 
border along Gaza from the Egyptian side, preferably with 
more than the lightly-armed civilian police allowed under the 
Egypt-Israel peace treaty.  On U.S.-Israeli discussions about 
disengagement, Shalom cited the PM as saying that among the 
issues on which the GOI would seek U.S. assurances would be 
the right of return and Jerusalem.  End Summary. 
 
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FM Shalom Visits London, Dublin 
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2. (C) Reviewing his busy travel schedule this month, Foreign 
Minister Shalom, who was accompanied by Chief of Staff Ron 
Prosor and Policy Advisor Jacob-Shaul Dayan, briefed 
Ambassador Kurtzer on his visit to the UK and Ireland, and 
previewed his visit to Egypt, which will be followed later in 
the month with a visit to the United States.  Referencing the 
"five points" he heard during his recent visits to Dublin and 
London, Shalom remarked that several elements of the European 
position sounded quite similar to that of the U.S.  For 
example, he said, the Europeans emphasized that, while they 
understood the impetus for taking unilateral action, their 
strong preference was for bilateral GOI-PA negotiations.  To 
this end, the Europeans pressed that any GOI action conform 
with the letter and spirit of the roadmap.  In addition, the 
Europeans argued against any "relocation" of settlements to 
"strengthen" so-called "consensus" settlements that would be 
annexed, de facto or otherwise.  Commenting on the British 
security plan, Shalom said that he explained to UK PM Blair 
that it did not make sense to provide financial support to 
the Palestinian security forces, even reconfigured under a 
unified chain of command, as long as Arafat ultimately 
directs them.  Shalom noted with some surprise the admiration 
that Blair had expressed for President Bush's bold 
articulation, in his June 24, 2002 speech, of a policy 
sidelining Arafat.  Blair reportedly characterized the 
assessment underlying this policy as "reflecting what 
everybody thought but was afraid to say." 
 
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Next Stop:  Egypt 
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3. (C) Previewing his upcoming trip to Egypt, Shalom said 
that Labor Party leaders who had recently visited Egypt had 
reported that Mubarak was not interested in assuming sole 
responsibility for preventing smuggling along the 
"Philadelphi" strip along the Israeli side of the border. 
Mubarak reportedly told the Labor delegation that Egypt would 
continue to act against smugglers, but only along the 
Egyptian side of the border.  Asked why Egypt had not done a 
better job preventing smuggling thus far, GOE officials 
reportedly told the delegation that their deficiencies were a 
function of the constraints placed on Egyptian forces as part 
of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty.  (Note:  That treaty allows 
only lightly armed police units to patrol the border.  End 
Note.)  Mubarak reportedly expressed interest in amending 
relevant provisions of the 1979 peace treaty between Israel 
and Egypt to allow Egypt to beef up its forces patrolling the 
border.  Shalom also commented that Mubarak was reported by 
the Labor delegation to be quite concerned about the 
prospects of Hizballah and/or al-Qaeda assuming a foothold in 
Gaza once Israeli forces withdraw.  Shalom expressed concern 
about Mubarak's interview published that day in "Le Figaro," 
in which Mubarak expressed strong misgivings about an 
Egyptian role in securing Gaza. 
 
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GOI to Seek Two New Assurances in Context of Disengagement? 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
4. (C) Turning to U.S.-Israeli discussions about PM Sharon's 
unilateral disengagement plan, Shalom indicated that Sharon 
had told him that, among the eight or nine issues on which 
the GOI would seek U.S. assurances -- probably in a form 
similar to the "deposit" negotiated with Secretary 
Christopher during the Syria track negotiations -- would be 
two issues not specifically drawn from previous U.S. 
assurances: the right of return and "specific assurances" on 
Jerusalem.  The latter, according to Shalom, would go beyond 
previous assurances.  Asked about U.S. views on Sharon's 
plan, Ambassador Kurtzer cautioned his interlocutor not to 
believe all of the rumors circulating about "the U.S. 
position" on the subject.  At this stage, he said, it is 
premature to talk about a final U.S. position.  Ultimately, 
the President's view will be shaped by the entirety of the 
package the GOI puts on the table. 
 
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PMs to Meet March 16 
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5. (C) Shalom confirmed reports that PMs Sharon and Abu Ala'a 
have set March 16 as the date for their meeting.  He was 
skeptical about Palestinian motivations for holding such a 
meeting at this time, expressing the view that Abu Ala'a 
probably wants to prevent Sharon from taking the line in 
Washington that "there is no partner" on the Palestinian 
side. 
 
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KURTZER