US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO435

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000435 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, S/CT, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:           DECL:  03/10/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINR, MOPS, KPAO, CE, NO, IN, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka:  Rebel eastern commander torques up 
his criticism of main Tamil Tiger organization in north 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston VA DTG 100511Z Mar 04 
-      (B) Colombo 422, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Rebel LTTE commander Karuna continues 
to lash out at the main Tamil Tiger organization in the 
north.  In a March 9 interview with BBC TV, Karuna -- 
speaking at a base in Batticaloa -- asserted that he had 
left the LTTE because he thought the group was preparing 
for war pending the outcome of the April 2 election. 
Amid word that mediation efforts have failed, various 
unconfirmed reports are circulating that both sides are 
involved in killings and the situation in the east 
remains tense.  In a meeting with the local co-chairs 
attended by the Ambassador, visiting Norwegian Special 
Envoy Erik Solheim related that, in the GoN's 
estimation, Karuna is an impressive leader.  In a 
meeting with the DCM, the Indian Deputy High 
Commissioner said he thought that Karuna, in general, 
was consolidating his position.  The LTTE is almost 
certainly in the process of trying to eliminate Karuna, 
but he seems to have some staying power.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Karuna hits out at LTTE 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 
commander Karuna continues to lash out at the main LTTE 
Tiger organization in the north.  (Per Ref B, Karuna 
announced last week that he was separating his forces in 
the Batticaloa/Ampara areas of the east from the main 
LTTE.)  In a March 9 interview carried by BBC TV, Karuna 
said the primary cause of the split was a recent 
decision by Tiger leader V. Prabakharan and his 
associates to order 1,000 eastern troops to go the 
north.  Queried as to why Prabakharan had ordered the 
troop deployment, Karuna replied that he thought that 
Prabakharan had plans to launch a military offensive 
pending the outcome of Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary 
elections.  (Karuna was clearly indicating that 
Prabhakaran might go to war if President Kumaratunga's 
party manages to win the election.  The LTTE considers 
Kumaratunga a bitter foe.)  Asked for the specific 
reason why he had chosen to break off from the main 
Tiger organization at this time, Karuna replied that for 
a long time the Tigers had been at war, but now that 
there was peace eastern troops should be "at home with 
their families" and it was a "betrayal" to move cadre 
from the east into the north now.  (Karuna hit on many 
of the same themes in the interview with AFP contained 
in Ref A.) 
 
3.  (U) The video feed of the BBC interview was 
particularly striking.  Throughout the interview, Karuna 
appeared relaxed, confident, and calm.  At one point, he 
even stated in a lighthearted manner that he knew his 
life was in danger, but that he was not afraid.  Visible 
in the background as Karuna spoke were numerous military 
personnel, both male and female, drilling with automatic 
weapons in precise formation, as well as scenes of 
artillery drills being carried out with well-maintained 
field guns.  (The interview was conducted by BBC Sri 
Lanka correspondent Frances Harrison and took place at a 
Tiger base in Batticaloa District.  The base was 
probably located in the Thoppigalla jungle west of 
Batticaloa city, a long-standing area of LTTE control.) 
 
--------------------------------- 
Reports of fighting Unconfirmed 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In the meantime, reports of killings within the 
LTTE as a result of the schism between east and north 
continue to circulate.  There are, for example, various 
reports that Pathuman, a high-level LTTE commander in 
Trincomalee District, has been executed by the main LTTE 
organization while on a visit to the Vanni, the main 
LTTE zone of control in the north.  Senior military 
sources, for example, told DATT on March 9 that Pathuman 
had indeed been killed in the Vanni.  The pro-Tiger 
website "TamilNet," however, carried an article March 9 
quoting Pathuman as saying he was "keeping fine," and 
denying the reports that he had been harmed.  In a March 
9 meeting attended by Ambassador Lunstead, Norwegian 
Special Envoy Erik Solheim also stated that Pathuman had 
not/not been killed.  In a March 10 meeting, Indian 
Deputy High Commissioner Mohan Kumar said the GoI thinks 
Pathuman is probably alive, but is absolutely certain he 
had been questioned and tortured.  Kumar was equally 
certain Pathuman will not return to his Trincomalee 
post, as he was too close to Karuna.  There are also 
various reports of fighting between pro-Karuna and pro- 
Prabakharan forces in the east.  Military sources, 
however, have told Mission that press reports of 
killings in the east are "wildly exaggerated." Sri Lanka 
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) personnel made the same point 
when queried about the reports of fighting by poloff. 
During a March 9 visit with a visiting INL delegation, 
however, Senior police Deputy Inspector General Chandra 
Fernando said he understood that many internecine 
killings had indeed taken place. 
 
5.  (C) In other developments, a mediation effort meant 
to end the split appears to have failed.  The effort was 
led by Roman Catholic Bishop of Batticaloa/Trincomalee 
Kingsley Swampillai, who led a delegation of eastern 
university officials, business leaders, and other 
notables to the Vanni town of Kilinochchi to discuss the 
situation on March 8.  According to contacts, the Bishop 
told Tiger political leader S.P. Thamilchelvam that he 
thought the rift in the LTTE could be worked out 
peacefully.  Swampillai also reportedly said eastern 
Tamils felt that northern Tamils had treated them poorly 
over the years.  Thamilchelvam replied that the LTTE was 
willing to grant Karuna amnesty if he returned to the 
LTTE fold.  Karuna went on to reject the LTTE amnesty 
offer in harsh terms on March 9.  It is not known 
whether Bishop Swampillai plans to continue his 
mediation effort. 
 
6.  (SBU) Amid all the conflicting reports, the 
situation in the east remains tense.  Contacts have told 
Mission that the plethora of rumors, claims, and 
counter-claims are leading to great anxiety on the part 
of the local populace in the east.  The major worry 
shared by all communities is that violence between the 
northern and eastern factions of the LTTE will break out 
and they will be caught in the crossfire.  While 
military sources have reiterated to Mission that they 
are not on alert status, they characterize the entire 
Eastern Province as on edge and note that they are 
monitoring the situation closely.  One piece of good 
news is that a hartal (work stoppage) planned for March 
10 (apparently to protest against Karuna) in Trincomalee 
District appears not to have panned out and normal 
commerce is going on in the area.  Separately, the 
Norwegian-led SLMM has denied press reports that it has 
pulled out of the east.  In a March 10 conversation with 
poloff, Agnes Bragadottir, SLMM spokeswoman, stated that 
monitors were still operating in government-held areas 
of the east and going about their duties in normal 
fashion.  She added, however, that SLMM personnel were 
not entering into areas that were controlled by Karuna. 
 
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Norwegian Comments on Situation 
------------------------------- 
7.  (C) In his March 9 meeting with the local 
representatives of the four co-chairs (U.S. Japan, 
Norway, EU), Special Envoy Solheim related that, in the 
GoN's estimation, Karuna is an impressive leader. 
Solheim noted that he and other GoN officials had met 
with Karuna on multiple occasions over the past two 
years.  From those encounters, Solheim described Karuna 
as "charismatic," and "one of the best in the LTTE 
ranks." Karuna had been educating himself, including 
learning English, over the past two years.  Calling 
Karuna a "peacemaker," Solheim added that the Tiger 
commander has a conciliatory attitude towards Muslims, 
who comprise about one-third of the population in the 
Eastern Province.  (FYI:  Other contacts have told us 
that Karuna is anti-Muslim.) 
 
8.  (C) Regarding the GoN's positioning vis-a-vis the 
LTTE situation, Solheim said the Norwegians will 
continue to speak with all parties.  The GoN will not 
reach out to Karuna, but will contnue to take his calls. 
The Tiger commander, through his secretary Varathan, has 
called the Norwegians several times in recent days, 
Solheim confirmed (also see Ref B regarding Varathan's 
conversation with Norwegian Ambassador Brattskar on 
March 3).  Karuna's only specific request to the 
Norwegians had been for a separate ceasefire agreement 
with the Sri Lankan government.  The GSL rejected the 
offer, which Karuna also made directly to the Sri Lankan 
military (see Ref B).  During his visit to Sri Lanka, 
Solheim said, he was scheduled to visit Jaffna, LTTE 
headquarters in Kilinochchi, and possibly the city of 
Trincomalee.  At this time, Solheim stated, he had no 
plans to visit Batticaloa, the area now controlled by 
Karuna. 
 
-------------------------- 
Indian Review of Situation 
-------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) In a March 10 meeting with the DCM, Indian 
Deputy High Commissioner Kumar made the following key 
points: 
 
-- The GoI generally sees Karuna as consolidating his 
position. 
 
-- Indian military analysis suggests that of the 
approximately 6,000 military personnel under Karuna's 
command, roughly 2,500-3,000 are actual soldiers with 
"guns in hand."  Split into eight regiments of 350 each, 
about 1,500 are ten-year-or-more grizzled combat 
veterans absolutely loyal to Karuna, having fought under 
him in several key battles.  The Indians assess that 
Karuna has approximately 500 more combat-ready soldiers 
under his command than Prabhakaran, which Kumar said was 
surprising, to say the least. 
 
-- Approximately one month ago, Karuna had been accused 
of misappropriating LTTE funds and was summoned to the 
Vanni to explain.  Karuna, anticipating that he might 
not return, or at the very least, was in for an 
unpleasant time, refused the fiat from the northern 
leadership. 
 
-- Karuna's wife and children traveled to Australia via 
Malaysia 2-3 weeks ago.  (We checked with the Australian 
High Commission DCM on this report.  She said "not as 
far as we know," but admitted that the Karuna family 
could have traveled under a different name or on a 
different passport.) 
 
-- On the question of how long Karuna can sustain his 
troops, the Indians think six months.  Karuna has a 
brother named "Reggie" who runs a very successful 
"marine products" business in Batticaloa.  Reggie has 
overseas commercial ties as well and could be a source 
of funds. 
 
-- The Indians consider two MPs from the pro-LTTE Tamil 
National Alliance (TNA) currently standing for election 
to be pro-Karuna.  (We have heard that one of these may 
be TNA MP A. Chandranehru, from Ampara, who was 
reportedly called to the Vanni recently for his 
participation in an anti-Prabakharan rally.) 
 
(Late March 10, DCM also spoke to British Deputy High 
Commissioner Peter Hughes, who said that British High 
Commissioner Stephen Evans had met with S.P. 
Thamilchelvam on March 9.  While Thamilchelvam did not 
offer any concrete information on how the LTTE 
leadership was handling the Karuna situation, Evans 
reported there was clearly "lots going on behind the 
scenes."  Evans, who was en route from the northern town 
of Kilinochchi to Mullaittivu on the northeast coast, 
said the situation along the way were calm and quiet, 
with no indication that anything was amiss.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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10.  (C) The LTTE is almost certainly in the process of 
trying to eliminate Karuna.  There are many unconfirmed 
reports that the LTTE is trying to infiltrate forces 
into the Batticaloa area in order to attack him, for 
example.  The problem for the LTTE, however, is that 
Karuna does not appear to be a flash in the pan, but 
seems to have some staying power.  As evidenced by the 
BBC TV report, he appears to be well dug in in his 
jungle bases, with hundreds if not thousands of forces 
under his command.  Based on his interviews with the 
press, he is also articulate and seems to have 
considerable political skills.  Moreover, while it is 
too early to tell, he may be gaining considerable 
support from among the civilian populace in the east. 
All in all, the LTTE appears to be facing a very stiff 
challenge.  In the past, the group responded with 
violence to all challenges.  It is not clear whether it 
will feel free to do this in light of domestic support 
for the peace process and the post-September 11, 2001 
international situation.  END COMMENT. 
 
11.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD