US embassy cable - 04QUEBEC46

UNCLAS QUEBEC 000046 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAN TERRY BREESE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CA 
SUBJECT: ADQ'S MARIO DUMONT PREDICTS UPHILL BATTLE FOR JEAN CHAREST 
 
 
1.  (U)  Summary:  The Quebec Assembly resumed March 9 and 
Action Democratique's Mario Dumont foresees major struggles for 
the Liberal government.  The stage is set for fiery labor 
negotiations with public sector employees and the upcoming 
provincial budget may not generate the big tax cuts promised 
earlier by Charest.   After almost one year in power the 
Liberals have dipped drastically in the polls, with now only 30% 
of overall support.  Young Dumont appears to have fully 
recovered from his unsatisfactory electoral performance last 
year and is ready to take on the Charest government.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (U)  March 8 -- the eve of the reopening of the Quebec 
legislature after a three-month break -- CG and PolAsst met with 
Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) leader Mario Dumont.  Dumont 
has a unique insider's view of the National Assembly in his 10 
years as an MNA, and has seen 3 governments come and go.  He 
also has an outsider's perspective. The ADQ is not recognized as 
a political party in the Assembly.  Despite winning over 18 
percent of the vote in the last election, Dumont still only 
gained 4 seats, so that he has very little time accorded for 
questions on the floor. 
 
3.  (U)  Dumont predicted an uphill battle for Premier Charest 
in the upcoming session.   He faces stormy labor negotiations 
with 500,000 public sector employees, controversy over his 
electoral reform bill, a budget which will be difficult to 
balance, resistance to efforts to reengineer the Quebec Model, 
and skepticism over nebulous round-tables on health, education, 
family and regional development.  In addition, referendums on 
municipal demergers loom as a source of contention in June. 
 
4.   (SBU)  Reviewing Charest's last few months in office, 
Dumont concluded that his mantra of "I have a mandate" is not 
shared by most Quebecers, who are unsure of the mandate, and 
confused as to whether Charest is really a Liberal.   Dumont 
cited the mishandling of the Mohawk crisis in Kanesatake and the 
announcement of the construction of the Suroit natural gas 
project, now postponed, as critical mistakes.   In Quebec, 
hydroelectricity has an almost mythic value among Quebecers. 
The PLQ government's decision to go ahead with the gas project 
despite massive public protest is a monumental political error, 
said Dumont, since polls showed an estimated 90% of Quebecers 
were against it.  The Suroit debacle has had an extremely 
negative impact on the PLQ government's credibility: a large 
number of party members were unwilling to back the government at 
the Liberal general council meeting held a few weeks ago, he 
added.   Dumont was equally critical of the performance of 
Natural Resources Minister Sam Hamad, whom he accused of 
amateurism and inexperience.   Regarding Kanesatake, Dumont 
thought there was a negative public perception that Chief 
Gabriel had been abandoned by the provincial government. 
 
5.  (SBU)  On relations with the unions, Dumont predicted 
widespread confrontation with public sector employees.  The 
provincial Liberals were elected with labor union support but 
less than a year after taking office, the government is 
confronting these same elements.  The barely 30% voter 
satisfaction levels show Liberal campaign promises and the math 
do not add up.  In Dumont's view, Charest has a 3- week window 
of opportunity to make some points with Quebec voters before 
federal elections are announced for May or June.  Public 
attention cannot be split between provincial politics and the 
electoral campaign, he concluded.   The sponsorship scandals 
would continue to be a distraction.  Charest's hands are tied 
because he cannot defend Ottawa.  It is "revolting" for 
Quebecers, said Dumont, to be enmeshed in a scandal over misuse 
of federal funds for a program they did not want, but sensed was 
ongoing.  "No-one in Quebec ever thought a few Canadian flags 
scattered across the province could ever change deeply rooted 
political views among voters.  But everyone knew before the 
Auditor General's report that there was something wrong: the 
report only revealed the scope of it." 
 
6.  (SBU)  Comment:  Despite his relative youth (34) Dumont is a 
political veteran and a savvy analyst, particularly of budget 
and economic issues.   He seems to have regained his enthusiasm 
for politics, after the ADQ's disappointing showing in the April 
2003 elections.  His own party has scaled back its vision 
considerably.   Dumont said in the upcoming session, the ADQ 
would focus on legislation to protect essential services such as 
day care and public transportation, especially for the elderly 
who are dependent on this service to obtain medical care (32 
percent of the population of Montreal depend on public 
transportation, he estimated).   Despite his limited 
representation in the Assembly, he remains a force to be 
reckoned with. 
 
 
 
KEOGH