US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA584

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, MARR, GT 
SUBJECT: BERGER ASKS FOR U.S. ASSISTANCE TO PLAN RADICAL 
REDUCTION OF GUATEMALAN MILITARY 
 
Classified By: PolOff Robert E. Copley for reason 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Frustrated by military foot-dragging, 
President Oscar Berger has formally requested US assistance 
with developing a plan to shrink his military.  We have 
mapped out a process of engagement using E-IMET funds to 
contract specialized expertise at the Center for Civil 
Military Relations (CCMR), and the Defense Resource 
Management Institute (DRMI), but urgently need our 2004 
E-IMET funding released, as well as an additional $150,000, 
to seize this opportunity.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) The Ambassador, PolCouns, DATT, and MilGroup Commander 
met with Vice President Stein, at his request, on March 2 to 
discuss ways we can assist.  Stein told the Ambassador that 
Berger has concluded that his military command is 
unable/unwilling to come up with a workable plan to 
rationally downsize.  Berger was impressed, according to 
Stein, that we had predicted (in a memo to Stein two weeks 
earlier) almost precisely the response he received from the 
military to his orders to plan a drawdown.  Berger is 
determined to make the most of his new government's honeymoon 
with the press and civil society by taking on the most 
difficult tasks upfront.  Reducing the military's drain on 
the budget holds the greatest potential to free up resources 
for Berger's cash-strapped administration. 
 
3. (C) Stein also told us Berger has tasked him, along with 
Minister of Finance Maria Antonietta Bonilla, to engage with 
the Defense Ministry to find a legal way to cut the 
military's budget to Q500 million (roughly $63 million). 
This would be down from a formal budget of twice that and an 
effective budget nearly three times as large, due to 
transfers (although much of this extra money probably does 
not reach the military).  Berger wants to reduce the 
military's troop levels drastically, by up to 16,000 (out of 
approximately 27,000). 
 
What we are currently doing to help 
----------------------------------- 
4. (C) The Ambassador and MilGroup Commander outlined 
upcoming seminars for Stein--DRMI, 15-26 March and CCMR, 
19-21 April--that will provide civilian decision-makers with 
quantitative tools to build and manage defense budgets and to 
plan force reductions.  Stein was interested and appreciative 
but stressed that the Berger administration also needs 
objective assessments of the military's current situation, 
adding that his government lacks the resources to hire an 
outside contractor.  To address this need, Dr. Tom Bruneau 
and MG (r) Dick Goetze, both from CCMR, met with the 
Ambassador and Mil Group Commander on March 6.  As a result 
of that meeting, we have set up a meeting for these CCMR 
officials with Berger on March 24.  CCMR will then modify its 
19-12 April seminar to take the President's views on roles, 
missions and the like into account.  We have continuing 
resolution funds to cover the CCMR and DRMI seminars. 
However, we urgently need our '04 E-IMET funding released in 
order to pay for the March 24 executive session and to 
sustain the momentum we have behind this important initiative. 
 
What we could do with a little more money 
----------------------------------------- 
5. (C) Following the DRMI and CCMR seminars, we will need to 
deploy a series of functionally focused mobile education 
teams to design specific transformation/downsizing plans for 
implementing Berger's directives.  We have identified, in 
consultations with CCMR, an immediate requirement for 
additional E-IMET funds in the amount of approximately 
$150,000 to fund one iteration of the "Civil-Military 
Relations Pre-Survey" - MASL P309073 (approximately $30K), 
and three tailored iterations of the "Civilian Control of the 
Armed Forces in a Democracy: Methods, Techniques, and 
Application" mobile education team - MASL #309152 
(approximately $40K each).  We are already looking for 
programs that could be put off until next year in an effort 
to cobble together funding.  Ideally, extra E-IMET funding 
could be made available to Guatemala as a consequence of 
redistribution of funds under the American Servicemember's 
Protection Act.  If additional funding is unavailable, we 
could probably pull already programmed money from our current 
year E-IMET budget, but cancellation penalties would limit 
what we can accomplish. 
 
Political Concerns 
------------------ 
6. (C) Stein is a little worried that Berger's timeframe is 
too aggressive and that such a drastic cut could cause the 
military to balk, or worse.  He also expressed concern that, 
at the same time Berger is challenging the military, he is 
confronting organized crime by suspending dubious contracts 
at the ports.  As yet, we detect no reaction in the military 
that would be cause for concern, but will remain alert. 
Comment 
------- 
7. (C) In addition to taking on organized crime, Berger has 
apparently decided to challenge the military (and all others 
who benefit from its large and non-transparent budget). 
Cutting the military budget in half amounts to throwing down 
the gauntlet and is a gusty move.  It is in our interest that 
Berger not only prevail, but that he manages to produce a 
modern, professional force--not just a smaller version of the 
current military.  We have an opportunity to help out and 
would appreciate a positive response to our resource needs. 
HAMILTON