US embassy cable - 01HARARE292

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000292 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/16/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZANU RECLAIMS PARLIAMENTARY SEAT FROM OPPOSITION 
IN BIKITA BY-ELECTION 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00292  01 OF 03  161527Z 
REF: A) HARARE 181  B) 00 HARARE 7164  C) 00 HARARE 6658 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) THE RULING ZANU-PF WON A SPECIAL PARLIAMENTARY BY- 
ELECTION IN THE RURAL BIKITA CONSTITUENCY JANUARY 13-14, 
RECLAIMING THE SEAT FROM THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC).   TURNOUT WAS HIGHER THAN FOR THE 
JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION AND A HEAVY POLICE PRESENCE 
HELPED ENSURE THAT VOTING WAS GENERALLY PEACEFUL.  HOWEVER, 
TACTICS OF INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE BY ZANU-PF, AS WELL AS 
REPORTED VOTE-BUYING, PRIOR TO THE ELECTION DAYS LIKELY 
KEPT MANY POTENTIAL MDC SUPPORTERS AWAY FROM THE POLLS AND 
ENCOURAGED A LARGER-THAN-EXPECTED TURNOUT FOR ZANU-PF. 
BASED ON THESE SERIOUS IRREGULARITIES, WE CANNOT 
CHARACTERIZE THE WEEKEND POLL AS FREE AND FAIR.  THE 
UNFORTUNATE LESSON THAT ZANU-PF WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THIS 
ELECTION IS THAT TERROR, PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS, IS AN 
EFFECTIVE SHORT-TERM TOOL IN ITS QUEST TO HOLD ON TO POWER. 
POLITBURO MEMBER AND YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI 
CONFIRMED THAT ZIMBABWE IS LIKELY TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME 
TACTICS IN THE RUNUP TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WHEN 
HE SAID PUBLICLY THAT THE DEVELOPMENTS IN BIKITA WERE ONLY 
THE "WARNING SHOTS."  END SUMMARY. 
 
ZANU RECLAIMS BIKITA SEAT FROM MDC 
---------------------------------- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00292  01 OF 03  161527Z 
 
2.  (U) THE RULING ZANU-PF WON A SPECIAL PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTION JANUARY 13-14 IN THE RURAL BIKITA WEST 
CONSTITUENCY IN MASVINGO PROVINCE, RECLAIMING A SEAT IT HAD 
LOST TO THE OPPOSITION MDC IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS.  ZANU WON 12,993 VOTES AND THE MDC 7001, AS 
ROUGHLY HALF OF THE CONSTITUENCY'S REGISTERED VOTERS CAST 
BALLOTS.  THE LARGE SIZE OF THE NEARLY 6000-VOTE MARGIN WAS 
SURPRISING, GIVEN THAT THE MDC WON BY 281 VOTES LAST JUNE. 
5500 MORE PEOPLE VOTED IN THIS BY-ELECTION THAN IN THE 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. 
 
VOTING MOSTLY PEACEFUL, BUT SOME VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
3.  (C) POLOFF OBSERVED THE ELECTION ALONG WITH 
REPRESENTATIVES FROM A NUMBER OF EU MISSIONS, NORWAY, AND 
CANADA.  LONG QUEUES FORMED AT MOST POLLING CENTERS EARLY 
IN THE MORNING OF JANUARY 13, BUT BEGAN TO TAPER OFF IN THE 
AFTERNOON AND ON THE SECOND DAY OF VOTING.   POLLING AGENTS 
FOR BOTH THE MDC AND ZANU WERE PRESENT INSIDE EVERY POLLING 
CENTER, IN ADDITION TO THE ELECTION OFFICIALS AND DOMESTIC 
MONITORS.  THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF VOTERS WERE WOMEN, 
MANY OVER THE AGE OF 40.  WE WERE TOLD THAT MOST OF THE 
YOUNGER MEN FROM BIKITA WERE EITHER WORKING IN URBAN AREAS 
OR HAD BEEN SENT AWAY BY THEIR FAMILIES AS THEY HAD BEEN 
THE PRINCIPAL TARGETS OF THE PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE BECAUSE 
THEY WERE ASSUMED TO BE MDC SUPPORTERS.  THIS FACT MIGHT 
ACCOUNT IN PART FOR THE MDC'S POORER SHOWING, IN THE 
OPINION OF MANY OBSERVERS WITH WHOM WE SPOKE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00292  01 OF 03  161527Z 
4.  (C) IN CONTRAST TO THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD, THE 
ELECTION DAYS WERE GENERALLY PEACEFUL.  DESPITE THE 
SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OF HEAVILY-ARMED POLICE THROUGHOUT THE 
CONSTITUENCY (POLOFF PASSED THROUGH FIVE ROADBLOCKS MANNED 
BY POLICE CARRYING AK-47'S), HOWEVER, THERE WERE SEVERAL 
INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION.  AT ONE POLLING 
STATION, A GROUP OF WAR VETERANS WAS CLEARLY AN 
INTIMIDATING PRESENCE, AS THEY STOOD NEAR THE LINE OF 
PEOPLE WAITING TO VOTE.  ONE OF THE WOMEN STANDING IN LINE 
TOLD US SHE HAD ONLY SHOWN UP BECAUSE HER AREA'S HEADMAN, 
OR SUBCHIEF, HAD TOLD HER TO DO SO.  IN A SEPARATE INCIDENT 
THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION, WAR VETERANS OCCUPIED ONE 
POLLING CENTER (MUTIKIZIZI PRIMARY SCHOOL) AND FORCED THE 
MDC 'S POLLING AGENTS AND DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS TO 
LEAVE.  POLICE REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVED SOON THEREAFTER TO 
RESTORE CONTROL. 
 
5.  (C) ON THE FIRST DAY OF VOTING, SOME 20 WAR VETERANS 
RETURNED TO MUTIKIZIZI POLLING CENTER, BEAT SEVERELY ONE OF 
TWO MDC POLLING AGENTS, AND DROVE OFF WITH HIM.  (COMMENT: 
WE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE POLLING AGENT WAS 
SUBSEQUENTLY RELEASED.  END COMMENT.)  ACCORDING TO A 
DOMESTIC MONITOR AT THE SCENE, THE GROUP WAS ACCOMPANIED BY 
ZANU-PF MP AND WAR VETERANS LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" 
HUNZVI, WHO ORCHESTRATED THE GOVERNMENT'S PRE-ELECTION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4512 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00292  02 OF 03  161527Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FBIE-00  VC-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /011W 
                  ------------------B6E194  161527Z /38 
P 161526Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8007 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000292 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/16/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZANU RECLAIMS PARLIAMENTARY SEAT FROM OPPOSITION 
IN BIKITA BY-ELECTION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00292  02 OF 03  161527Z 
INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN.  HUNZVI WAS UBIQUITOUS DURING THE 
VOTING, AS HE TRAVELLED THROUGHOUT THE CONSTITUENCY IN A 
ZANU-PF VEHICLE.   HE STOLE ONE MONITOR'S IDENTIFYING VEST 
AND HARASSED ANOTHER YOUNG MONITOR, TELLING HER SHE HAD NO 
RIGHT TO BE AT THE POLLING STATION.   WE OBSERVED ANOTHER 
MAN DRIVING A ZANU-PF VEHICLE WHO ENTERED ONE POLLING 
CENTER AFTER ANOTHER WITHOUT CREDENTIALS OF ANY KIND. 
 
6.  (C) IN ANOTHER INCIDENT, A CAR CARRYING AN EU OBSERVER 
SENT FROM BRUSSELS, AS WELL AS DIPLOMATS FROM THE DUTCH AND 
CANADIAN EMBASSIES HERE, WAS STOPPED BY A SENIOR POLICE 
OFFICER, WHO TOLD THE PASSENGERS THAT DIPLOMATS HAD NO 
RIGHT TO BE IN THE CONSTITUENCY.  THE EU OBSERVER INFORMED 
THE OFFICER THAT THE COMMANDING POLICE OFFICER FOR THE 
PROVINCE AND THE NATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION 
OFFICIALS WERE AWARE OF, AND HAD NO OBJECTIONS TO, THEIR 
PRESENCE.  DESPITE THEIR EXPLANATION, THE DIPLOMATS WERE 
ASKED TO LEAVE BIKITA CONSTITUENCY AND WERE UNABLE TO 
SECURE PERMISSION TO RETURN UNTIL THE SECOND DAY OF VOTING. 
THE OTHER THREE CARS PARTICIPATING IN THE OBSERVER EFFORT, 
INCLUDING POLOFF'S, DID NOT EXPERIENCE SIMILAR DIFFICULTIES 
AND WERE ALLOWED TO CIRCULATE FREELY. 
 
7. (C) WE OBSERVED TWO TRENDS DURING THE ELECTION WHICH 
PROVIDED AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FRAUD OR INTIMIDATION.  FIRST, 
BETWEEN 4,000 AND 5,000 VOTERS WERE REPORTEDLY TURNED AWAY, 
EITHER BECAUSE THEIR NAMES WERE NOT ON THE VOTERS' ROLL OR 
BECAUSE THEY PRESENTED INSUFFICIENT IDENTIFICATION.  THE 
FACT THAT MORE THAN 10% OF REGISTERED VOTERS WERE TURNED 
AWAY IS SIGNIFICANT, ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE 
WITHOUT ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE WHETHER THEY WERE LEGITIMATELY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00292  02 OF 03  161527Z 
DENIED THEIR RIGHT TO VOTE.  SECOND, MANY VOTERS WERE 
ELDERLY OR INFIRM AND REQUIRED ASSISTANCE IN CASTING THEIR 
VOTE.  AT EVERY POLLING STATION WE OBSERVED (10 OUT OF 40), 
THOSE REQUIRING SUCH ASSISTANCE WERE ASKED TO STATE ALOUD 
WHOM THEY WANTED TO VOTE FOR, THEN WERE HELPED IN MARKING 
THEIR BALLOTS APPROPRIATELY.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE 
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THESE VOTERS OPTED FOR ZANU-PF, AS 
VOTING FOR THE OPPOSITION COULD ENSURE A VISIT LATER FROM 
HUNZVI AND HIS THUGS. 
 
GOVERNMENT REACTION 
------------------- 
 
8.  (U) GOVERNMENT AND ZANU-PF OFFICIALS WERE EBULLIENT, 
HAILING THE BIKITA OUTCOME AS A VINDICATION OF THE 
GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES.   ZANU-PF'S SECRETARY OF INFORMATION 
NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA CLAIMED THAT THE WIN WAS EVIDENCE THAT 
ZIMBABWEANS SUPPORT THE GOZ'S POLICIES ON LAND AND THE 
ECONOMY, AND INSISTED IT FORESHADOWED "THE BEGINNING OF THE 
END OF THE MDC." SPOKESMAN JONATHAN MOYO SAID THE RESULT 
WAS AN INDICATOR OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN FUTURE BY-ELECTIONS 
AND THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  POLITBURO MEMBER 
AND YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI'S COMMENTS WERE 
THE MOST OMINOUS: "WE WOULD LIKE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT THE 
ENEMY HAS NO CHANCE IN ANY BY-ELECTION.  IN FACT, THESE ARE 
JUST THE WARNING SHOTS." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (C) WE WERE NOT SURPRISED BY ZANU-PF'S VICTORY.  THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00292  02 OF 03  161527Z 
RULING PARTY WAS EMBARRASSED BY ITS LOSS LAST JUNE IN 
BIKITA WEST, TRADITIONALLY A RURAL ZANU STRONGHOLD, AND 
PULLED OUT ALL THE STOPS TO WIN BACK THIS SEAT, INCLUDING 
THE USE OF WIDESPREAD INTIMIDATION AND DISPENSING OF 
GOVERNMENT LARGESS.  THE MDC LOST SOME 700 VOTES AND ZANU 
PICKED UP ALMOST 5500, INDICATING THAT ZANU-PF WAS 
SUCCESSFUL NOT ONLY IN SUPPRESSING THE MDC'S SUPPORT BUT 
ALSO IN GETTING ITS OWN VOTERS TO THE POLLS.  ACCORDING TO 
MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, ZANU INCREASED ITS 
VOTE COUNT IN PART BY ORDERING LOCAL TRADITIONAL LEADERS -- 
WHO ARE ON THE GOVERNMENT PAYROLL -- TO GET OUT THE ZANU 
VOTE ON PAIN OF DEATH.  THE MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL FURTHER 
ALLEGED THAT ZANU-PF ADDED THE NAMES OF APPROXIMATELY 3,000 
SUPPORTERS TO THE VOTERS' ROLL AND QUIETLY MOVED THEM INTO 
THE AREA BEFORE THE ELECTION.  UNFORTUNATELY, ZANU-PF'S 
VICTORY HAS VINDICATED THE PARTY'S TACTICS OF SUPPRESSION 
AND INTIMIDATION.  JUDGING FROM BORDER GEZI'S COMMENTS, 
ZIMBABWE IS CERTAIN TO SEE MORE OF THE SAME IN THE RUN-UP 
TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN 
CALL THIS BY-ELECTION FREE AND FAIR, AND WE SUSPECT THE MDC 
WILL CHALLENGE THE RESULT IN COURT. 
 
10.  (C) WITH THE VICTORY IN BIKITA WEST, ZANU NOW CONTROLS 
93 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT, ONLY SEVEN FEWER THAN THE NUMBER 
REQUIRED TO HAVE A FREE HAND IN PASSING CONSTITUTIONAL 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4513 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00292  03 OF 03  161527Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FBIE-00  VC-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /011W 
                  ------------------B6E199  161527Z /38 
P 161526Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8008 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000292 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/16/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZANU RECLAIMS PARLIAMENTARY SEAT FROM OPPOSITION 
IN BIKITA BY-ELECTION 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00292  03 OF 03  161527Z 
AMENDMENTS.  IF THE SUPREME COURT RULES ON JANUARY 19 THAT 
THE MDC CAN PROCEED WITH ELECTORAL CHALLENGES TO 38 
PARLIAMENTARY SEATS WON BY ZANU-PF, THE RULING PARTY WILL 
DO WHATEVER IS NECESSARY TO HOLD ON TO THOSE SEATS.  ONE OF 
THE MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGES NOW FACING THE MDC IS 
CONVINCING ITS SUPPORTERS THAT VOTING FOR THE OPPOSITION IS 
WORTH THE VERY REAL RISK. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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