US embassy cable - 04ANKARA1418

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001418 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: LEADING KURDS IN ANKARA DIVIDED ON SPLITS 
IN KONGRA GEL AND DEHAP 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter; 
reasons: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: Kurdish DEHAP leaders in Ankara have asserted 
to us that apparent splits in terrorist Kongra Gel and in the 
Kurdish DEHAP are ephemeral.  While allowing that a 
"misunderstanding" arose in Kongra Gel, they deny its 
seriousness and claim the dispute is being exaggerated by 
local media and elements of the Turkish State intent on 
weakening the organization's influence in Turkey.  They also 
deny any lasting problems within DEHAP itself.  In stark 
contrast, a close Embassy contact with deep ties to Turkey's 
Southeast and northern Iraq said the rifts run deep and are 
not likely to fade.  Given DEHAP's political equities, we 
give more weight to our close contact's commentary.  End 
Summary. 
 
 
2. (SBU) Recent press reports are highlighting apparent 
divisions in Kongra Gel, the latest iteration of the 
terrorist PKK, and in the Kurdish political party DEHAP, 
explicitly linking the splits to a reported ideological 
debate within both organizations.  Mainstream dailies have 
been focusing on assertions that Osman Ocalan, the brother of 
jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, has abandoned Kongra Gel 
camps in northern Iraq with some followers, an event that 
apparently corresponded with disagreements within DEHAP about 
who would run for mayor of Diyarbakir in upcoming local 
elections. 
 
 
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DEHAP: Internal Kongra Gel Dispute Temporary 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) March 2, DEHAP chairman Tuncer Bakirhan and party Vice 
Chairman Nazmi Gur downplayed to us the press reports of 
Osman Ocalan leaving Kongra Gel.  Although reluctant to 
acknowledge any direct DEHAP contact with Kongra Gel, 
Bakirhan allowed that a "misunderstanding" arose recently 
within Kongra Gel's rank and file, but he did not elaborate. 
He asserted that the dispute is temporary, not based on any 
ideological differences, and that Abdullah Ocalan will 
resolve the issue soon from prison.  In any case, Bakirhan 
claimed, "Abdullah Ocalan will never make a decision that 
will undermine the unity of Kongra Gel." 
 
 
4. (C) Bakirhan further argued that the some members of the 
media and the Turkish State are exaggerating the split to 
weaken Kongra Gel itself and the organization's influence in 
Turkey.  There is a six-hundred-year tradition of repression 
in Turkey, he said, during which Kurds led 29 rebellions 
against Ottoman and Turkish rule.  He averred that elements 
of the State have an interest in maintaining or even 
exacerbating this tension between Kurds and the State -- a 
policy that could ultimately backfire by fostering a more 
radical Kurdish faction, he claimed. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
DEHAP: Internal Party Dispute Personality-Driven 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 
5. (C) Turning to DEHAP infighting, Bakirhan and Gur 
explained that DEHAP chose to leave current Diyarbakir mayor 
Feridun Celik off of its election ticket for the upcoming 
polls and instead selected popular attorney and Kurdish 
rights advocate Osman Baydemir as its candidate.  Celik later 
announced that he will run as an independent candidate, a 
move interpreted by the media as an indication of a wider 
divide within DEHAP.  Both Bakirhan and Gur were at pains to 
reject speculation that Celik's move will divide the party 
and denied any connection between internal DEHAP wrangling 
and the potential split in Kongra Gel. 
 
 
6. (C) Explaining the party's decision, Gur claimed that 
DEHAP's own public opinion research in Diyarbakir revealed 
that Celik ranked fourth among potential party candidates for 
mayor.  Gur also asserted that Kurds in Diyarbakir consider 
Celik to be an ineffective mayor, one who has not addressed 
the city's infrastructure and other economic problems.  Gur 
also noted that Celik sees himself as a rival to Bakirhan, 
adding that he hopes Celik runs for office as an independent 
because a DEHAP victory in that case will provide further 
evidence of the party's strength.  For his part, Bakirhan 
claimed that in consulting public opinion and local NGOs, 
DEHAP chose its candidate in "the most democratic" way 
possible.  Mocking Celik's candidacy, Bakirhan said "if Celik 
gets 1,001 votes in Diyarbakir, I will quit politics." 
 
 
----------- 
Not so Fast 
----------- 
 
 
7. (C) In a private March 4 meeting, a leading Kurdish 
right-of-center politician and longtime Embassy contact with 
excellent access to both Kurdish nationalist and Islamist 
circles told poloff that in contrast to the glass-half-full 
scenario Bakirhan and Gur describe, the rifts in both 
organizations are genuine and are not likely to go away soon. 
 Our contact said he had heard from several Kurdish sources 
in northern Iraq that Osman Ocalan had broken away from 
Kongra Gel.  He averred that Osman Ocalan represents a more 
"conservative" -- that is, more pragmatic in its Kurdish 
nationalism -- group within Kongra Gel.  The other faction, 
he said, is led by Cemil Bayik, whom he sees as more militant 
and deeply disappointed with USG Iraq policy.  Our contact 
asserted that the split is likely to be permanent. 
 
 
      8. (C) Our contact noted that the rift in Kongra Gel is 
having concurrent ripple effects on DEHAP, which he said is 
splitting along similar lines.  He said there is some 
ideological convergence between hardcore leftist Kurds in 
DEHAP and Cemil Bayik's strident Kurdish nationalists.  In 
addition, he claimed, the intra-party squabbling is also a 
symptom of an internal struggle over the party's financial 
resources.  Those who were left off the DEHAP election ticket 
are resentful and are promoting friction within the party 
ranks, he added. 
 
 
         9. (C) Our contact contended that, as a result of 
internal party disputes, another Kurdish party could arise 
following local elections.  For now, he argued, the factions 
will hang together to ensure a victory for DEHAP, since it is 
the only Kurdish party at the moment.  To confirm his 
analysis, our contact phoned Feridun Celik during the 
meeting.  Celik said he will soon withdraw his candidacy from 
the Diyarbakir race, added cryptically that "after March 28, 
something new will begin." 
 
 
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      COMMENT 
      ------- 
 
 
      10. (C) We take Bakirhan's and Gur's comments with a 
grain of salt.  As DEHAP leaders, both have a clear incentive 
to downplay splits within the party and Kongra Gel.  While 
their comments about the relative poor performance of Celik 
and other DEHAP mayors echo what we have heard from contacts 
in the Southeast and in Ankara, their arguments that current 
differences will be reconciled in time were unconvincing. 
EDELMAN