US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO422

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000422 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL/CRA; NSC FOR E. 
MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:     DECL: 03-09-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, PTER, PHUM, CE, Political Parties, Elections 
SUBJECT:  Campaign Snapshot:  Despite LTTE rift, Tamil 
party busy on hustings; Election violence low, so far 
 
Refs:  Colombo 406, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) In this message, Mission reviews the following 
items related to Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary 
election campaign: 
 
-- Despite LTTE split, pro-Tiger party carries on 
campaign; 
 
-- Extremist Buddhist monks launch effort; 
 
-- Incidents of campaign-related violence on low side, 
so far; 
 
-- President's brother declares his candidacy for 
presidency (well ahead of 2005 or 2006 election); 
 
-- In our "Flavor of the Campaign" section:  Strict 
rules enforced on use of election posters, banners, etc. 
 
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Pro-Tiger party continues its campaign 
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2.  (SBU) Despite the recent split in the Liberation 
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) organization between 
northern and eastern elements (see Reftels), the Tamil 
National Alliance (TNA), a pro-LTTE political grouping, 
continues to campaign actively.  R. Sampathan, a senior 
TNA MP, for example, kicked off the TNA campaign in 
Trincomalee District on March 7, and canvassing is 
continuing in Jaffna.  In the eastern districts of 
Batticaloa and Ampara, however, TNA candidates have 
reportedly had to adjust their campaigning schedules due 
to tensions arising in that region due to the LTTE 
split.  (There have been several rallies and a work 
stoppage in the east in favor of rebel LTTE commander 
Karuna in the past several days -- see Reftels.)  The 
TNA has denied press reports that it has suspended its 
Batticaloa and Ampara campaigns due to tensions in those 
areas. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  Before the split in the LTTE emerged 
last week, observers predicted that the TNA could win up 
to 20-22 seats (up from 15) and perhaps hold the balance 
of power in the next Parliament.  At this point, that 
would still seem possible, but it would appear to depend 
to some extent on whether or not the rift in the LTTE 
continues.  Tensions, for example, are high in 
Batticaloa and, if there is violence between competing 
LTTE factions, that could seriously impact the Tamil 
vote.  Moreover, there is also the possibility that the 
TNA itself could be split between elements that are in 
favor of the main LTTE organization versus those that 
are in favor of the Karuna faction.  Such a split would 
almost certainly undermine LTTE influence in Parliament. 
Already, there are indications that some TNA elements 
are leaning toward Karuna.  END COMMENT. 
 
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Extremist Buddhist monks launch effort 
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4.  (SBU) The Sinhalese extremist Janatha Hela Urumaya 
(JHU) party has begun its election campaign.  (The JHU 
is the new name for the Sihala Urumaya, SU, party.  Last 
month, the JHU announced that it was fielding an all- 
monk slate of candidates -- see Reftels.)  On March 2, 
the over 200 monks-cum-candidates for JHU kicked off 
their campaign with a rally near Colombo.  At the rally, 
the Venerable Omalpe Sobitha, a monk and one of the key 
JHU leaders, was quoted as stating:  "Unity is the first 
priority, federalism is rejected.  There can be no 
division under any circumstances."  The group's election 
manifesto has also been released, and it advocates 
programs for "protecting Buddhism" and ending 
corruption.  Along the lines of Ven. Sobitha's remarks, 
the manifesto was also skeptical of negotiations with 
the LTTE about power-sharing for the north/east and the 
Norwegian government's peace facilitation effort. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  The running of an all-monk slate is 
unprecedented in Sri Lankan history -- and has been 
controversial.  As flagged in Reftels, for example, the 
JHU has faced a harsh backlash from many Buddhists who 
do not believe that monks should engage in politics. 
That said, for a small party, the JHU seems to have 
picked up some political momentum, much of it from the 
novelty factor of running monks.  While it is very 
early, some observers even believe the party may pick up 
some seats in Parliament (the SU had none in the last 
Parliament).  This possibility is of concern to the 
alliance between the President's Sri Lanka Freedom Party 
(SLFP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, 
which believes that any JHU support comes at the expense 
of the SLFP-JVP vote base.  END COMMENT. 
 
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Violence on Low Side, so far 
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6.  (U) A report by the Center for Monitoring Election 
Violence (CMEV) issued on March 8 reports 321 total 
incidents of campaign-related violence since 
February 17, the date when nominations for the April 2 
election began.  The incidents range from murder, (the 
political killings of two Tamils in the East -- see 
Reftels), attempted murder, to threats and intimidation. 
The CMEV report notes that the percentage of what it 
terms "major incidents" of violence is lower than at a 
similar stage in the 2001 parliamentary election, but 
terms these incidents of violence "a disturbing trend as 
the campaign gains momentum."  The Police Elections 
Secretariat, in a separate tabulation, has also recorded 
 
SIPDIS 
approximately 300 incidents of violence in the run-up to 
the election. 
 
7.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Heading into this campaign there was 
considerable anxiety that cohabitation tensions between 
the President and the Prime Minister heralded a very 
violent campaign.  While the CMEV's report does indicate 
that the campaign has had many instances of violence, 
the report is accurate when it states that the situation 
appears a bit calmer than recent Sri Lankan national 
elections at this point in the campaign cycle.  It is 
not clear why this might be the case, although the 
Election Commissioner does appear to be holding tighter 
reins on the situation than in the past (see below).  As 
CMEV also notes, however, it is still early in the 
campaign cycle, and the situation could easily flare up 
in the next several weeks.  END COMMENT. 
 
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President's Brother Throws Hat into Ring 
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8.  (SBU) Late March 2, Anura Bandaranaike, a senior 
SLFP MP and brother of President Kumaratunga, announced 
that he wants to be the next SLFP presidential 
candidate.  Bandaranaike's announcement was an early 
one:  Sri Lanka's next presidential election will take 
place in either late 2005 or late 2006.  (The exact 
timing of the election depends on how a complicated 
dispute concerning the length of President Kumaratunga's 
term is settled -- see Reftels.)  In a lengthy interview 
with the English-language DAILY MIRROR newspaper 
published on March 3, Bandaranaike also stated that he 
would be "the last of the Bandaranaikes to be in 
politics and the dynasty will end with me."  He also 
characterized himself "a ruthlessly honest politician." 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Bandaranaike, 55, would seem to be a 
leading contender for the SLFP nomination.  First, he is 
the brother of the President, and both his parents were 
SLFP prime ministers, which counts for a lot in the SLFP 
(his father founded the party).  He has huge political 
problems, however.  While affable, he is not considered 
a serious thinker and some even consider him a bit of a 
buffoon.  It is also not clear whether he has the 
support of his sister, who is thought to distrust him 
for defecting from the SLFP years ago (he returned to 
the party fold in 2001).  In throwing his hat into the 
ring, Bandaranaike also has a major rival:  senior SLFP 
MP and former Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse is 
thought to maintain considerable grassroots support in 
the SLFP.  END COMMENT. 
 
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Campaign Posters and Banners:  Banned 
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10.  (U) In our "Flavor of the Campaign" section:  The 
Election Commissioner's Office has issued an order 
banning campaign posters, banners, cutouts and other 
public displays related to the election, as well as the 
use of motorcades and other processions without prior 
permission.  The Commissioner's office also ordered the 
police to enforce the ban in a strict manner (the police 
have received a special allocation of Rs. 8.2 million -- 
about USD 82,000 -- to do this).  By all accounts, the 
ban has been quite successful:  Although there are 
posters and banners up in some spots in the country, 
there is much less than in previous campaigns.  Colombo, 
for example, has much less election-related 
paraphernalia in evidence than during the December 2001 
parliamentary election campaign.  A poster featuring a 
picture of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and President 
Bush was put up near a prominent Colombo roundabout and 
removed two days later, for example. 
 
11.  (SBU) COMMENT:  In issuing the order, the Election 
Commissioner's office was enforcing a long-standing law 
banning campaign posters, banners, etc.  The law was 
meant to forestall lavish expenditures by candidates and 
parties, and, in general, reduce the clutter and 
resulting litter.  While admirable in its intent, the 
relatively strict enforcement of the law has taken some 
of the flavor (and fun) out of the campaign.  In most of 
Colombo, for example, it is hard to know that a campaign 
is going on at all.  One decided positive, however, is 
that enforcement of the law may be helping lower 
temperatures and thus reduce campaign violence.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
12.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD