US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO418

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000418 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:   DECL: 03-09-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PTER, PHUM, CE, Elections, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  In meeting with Ambassador, PM Wickremesinghe 
optimistic about April 2 parliamentary election 
 
Refs:  Colombo 406, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Prime Minister Wickremesinghe intends 
to use the signed photo of his White House visit in his 
campaign.  He hopes to win an absolute majority and will 
use it to push the President to return the powers she 
seized in November.  He thinks the Election Commission 
is doing a good job.  His media campaign will kick off 
next week.  He is happy with the electoral assistance 
the U.S. plans to sponsor.  He met with the Defense and 
Interior Secretaries soon after the inter-LTTE dispute 
broke out and is working to keep things calm.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
PM's CAMPAIGN GETTING INTO GEAR 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Ambassador called on Prime Minister Ranil 
Wickremesinghe March 9.  The PM's residence at Temple 
Trees was buzzing with campaign activities, with the 
normally-sleepy waiting room full of workers with 
folders marked "Campaign" and shouting into cell phones. 
The PM said that he has been suffering from a sore 
throat for the past few days, which has curtailed his 
activities, but that it is improving now.  Ambassador 
presented the PM with photos signed by President Bush 
from the PM's November visit to the White House.  The PM 
was extremely pleased, and immediately conferred with an 
aide on how he might use the photos in his campaign. 
 
POST-ELECTION SCENARIOS 
----------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Ambassador said the conventional wisdom was that 
the most likely election result would be a hung 
Parliament, with neither the PM's party nor the 
President's gaining an outright majority.  How would the 
PM handle that situation? The PM said that his goal was 
to win an absolute majority, and that was what he was 
focusing on.  He said that his media campaign would kick 
off next week, and he would also begin opinion polling 
then. Ambassador said that even if the PM won a 
majority, the structural problem of cohabitation would 
remain, with divided powers between the President and 
the PM.  How would he deal with that?  PM said that his 
view was that if he received a mandate from the people, 
he would insist that she hand back control of all three 
Ministries. 
 
ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Ambassador then briefed the PM on our plans 
for electoral assistance and observation.  Ambassador 
said that we had been working with complementary 
programs from both the National Democratic Institute 
(NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI), 
but that we had just heard that IRI had decided not to 
respond to the revised proposal, and so NDI would be the 
implementing partner.  The PM said that NDI had a lot of 
experience working with the Election Commission and that 
IRI had focused more on working with the political 
parties, so in the current context the arrangement 
seemed logical.  Ambassador told him that we would also 
be deploying teams of Embassy personnel around the 
country to observe the elections, and that we would not 
hesitate to speak up if we saw problems.  PM said that 
was good.  He also said that he was pleased with the 
work thus far of the Election Commissioner. 
 
LTTE SITUATION 
-------------- 
5.  (C) Ambassador then asked about the situation in the 
East where LTTE rebel Karuna was defying Prabhakaran, 
and whether this would affect the election.  PM said he 
did not think it would as long as large-scale fighting 
did not break out.  Ambassador asked if the PM were in 
contact with the President or her people on this issue. 
PM said that shortly after the issue erupted, he had 
called over Defense Secretary Cyril Herath and Interior 
Secretary M.N. Junaid to talk to them about keeping the 
 
SIPDIS 
situation calm. (Defense and Interior are two of the 
Ministries that the President took over in November.) He 
said that he might have talked to the President, but she 
was off campaigning.  Ambassador said he was reassured 
by the fact that the two wings of the GSL were talking 
to each other. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  The energetic atmosphere around the PM 
was in stark contrast to the rather despondent air which 
seemed to permeate the UNP right after Parliament was 
dissolved.  At present we have little gauge of public 
opinion, but Sri Lanka's proportional representation 
system will make it extremely hard for the PM's UNP 
party to win an outright majority. His stated intent, if 
he wins a clear majority, to insist that the President 
hand back the Defense Minister position, seems likely to 
set the country up for another battle of wills, since 
the President will claim constitutional mandate for 
holding onto the post. We are very pleased, however, to 
hear that the PM is working with the Defense and 
Interior Secretaries to keep the LTTE squabble from 
blowing up in their faces.  END COMMENT. 
 
7.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
 
LUNSTEAD